Muva nje, inhlangano yezokubonisana yamazwe ngamazwe i-SNE Research ikhiphe idatha yokuthunyelwa kwebhethri yokugcinwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023 kanye nohlu lokuthunyelwa kwenkampani yebhethri yebhethri ye-lithium emhlabeni wonke, eheha ukunaka kwemakethe.

Idatha efanelekile ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri okugcinwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-185GWh ngonyaka odlule, okuwukunyuka konyaka cishe okungama-53%.Uma sibheka ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri ayishumi aphezulu emhlabeni wonke okugcina amandla ngo-2023, izinkampani zaseShayina zithatha izihlalo eziyisishiyagalombili, ezibalela cishe u-90% wokuthunyelwa.Ngokumelene nesizinda somthamo oweqile ngezikhathi ezithile, ukwehla kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka nomfula kusakazwa, izimpi zamanani aphakeme ziyaqina, futhi ukugxila kwemakethe yebhethri yokugcina amandla kuyanda.I-CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), kanye ne-Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 .SZ), Ruipu Lanjun (0666.HK), ne-Haichen Energy Storage kuphela, isamba semakethe yezinkampani ezinhlanu ezihamba phambili sidlula u-75%. .

Eminyakeni emibili edlule, imakethe yebhethri yokugcina amandla ibe noshintsho kungazelelwe.Okwake kwabonwa njengokucindezeleka kwenani okwakulwiwa ngakho manje sekuphenduke ulwandle olubomvu lokuncintisana ngamanani aphansi, nezinkampani ezizimisele ukuncintisana ngesabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke ngamanani aphansi.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yamandla okulawula izindleko angalingani ezinkampani ezahlukahlukene, ukusebenza kwezinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla ngo-2023 kuzohlukaniswa.Ezinye izinkampani ziye zazuza ukukhula, kanti ezinye ziye zawela ekuwohlokeni noma ngisho nokulahlekelwa.Ngokombono wemboni, u-2024 uzoba unyaka obalulekile futhi unyaka obalulekile wokusheshisa ukusinda kwabanamandla futhi ulolonge kabusha iphethini yemakethe yamabhethri okugcina amandla.

U-Long Zhiqiang, umcwaningi ophezulu kwa-Xinchen Information, engxoxweni nentatheli evela e-China Business News ukuthi izinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla okwamanje zenza inzuzo encane noma zilahlekelwa imali.Ngenxa yokuthi izinkampani zesigaba sokuqala zinokuncintisana okubanzi okuqinile futhi imikhiqizo yazo inamakhono e-premium, izinkampani zesigaba sesibili nesesithathu zihileleke kakhulu ezicashuniwe zomkhiqizo, ngakho ukusebenza kwazo kwenzuzo kuyehluka.

Ingcindezi yezindleko

Ngo-2023, ngokukhula kwamandla amasha afakiwe kanye nokwehla kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate eluhlaza, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla izokhula ngokushesha, ngaleyo ndlela ikhulise isidingo samabhethri okugcina amandla.Kodwa-ke, kanye nalokhu, amandla okukhiqiza amabhethri esitoreji samandla angena enkathini yensalela ngenxa yokwanda okusheshayo kokukhiqizwa ngabadlali abasha nabadala.

Ngokwesibikezelo se-InfoLink Consulting, amandla okukhiqiza amabhethri embulunga yonke azosondela ku-3,400GWh ngo-2024, lapho amaseli okugcina amandla enza u-22%, afinyelele ku-750GWh.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthunyelwa kwamaseli ebhethri esitoreji samandla kuzokhula ngo-35% ngo-2024, kufinyelele ku-266GWh.Kungabonakala ukuthi isidingo nokuhlinzekwa kwamaseli okugcina amandla akufani kakhulu.

U-Long Zhiqiang utshele izintatheli: “Okwamanje, wonke amandla okukhiqiza amaseli okugcina amandla afinyelele ku-500GWh, kodwa isidingo sangempela semboni kulo nyaka ukuthi kunzima ukufinyelela ku-300GWh.Kulokhu, amandla okukhiqiza angaphezu kuka-200GWh awasebenzi ngokwemvelo.”

Ukwanda ngokweqile kwamandla okukhiqiza ezinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla kuwumphumela wezinto eziningi.Esimweni sokujaha ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, imboni yokugcina amandla ikhuphuke ngokushesha ngokuthuthukiswa kwemakethe entsha yokuphehla amandla kagesi.Abadlali abawela umngcele bayaphithizela, bajahe ukusebenza futhi babelane, futhi bonke bafuna ukuthola ucezu lukaphaya.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abanye ohulumeni basekhaya baye babheka imboni yebhethri ye-lithium njengokugxila ekukhuthazeni ukutshalwa kwezimali, ukuheha izinkampani zebhethri zokugcina amandla ngokusebenzisa izibonelelo, izinqubomgomo ezikhethiwe, njll ukusekela ukuqaliswa kwamaphrojekthi.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngosizo lwemali, izinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla ziye zasheshisa ijubane lokunwetshwa ngokwandisa imizamo yocwaningo nentuthuko, ukwandisa umthamo wokukhiqiza, nokuthuthukisa ukwakhiwa kwesiteshi.

Ngokumelene nesizinda sokusebenza ngokweqile ngezikhathi ezithile, intengo iyonke yochungechunge lwemboni yokugcina amandla ibonise ukwehla kusukela ngo-2023. Njengoba impi yamanani phezu kwamanani entengo ye-lithium carbonate ishuba, intengo yamaseli okugcina amandla nayo yehlile isuka phansi ngaphansi kokungu-1. yuan/Wh ekuqaleni kuka-2023 ukuya ngaphansi kuka-0.35 yuan/Wh.Ukwehla kukhulu kangangokuthi kungabizwa ngokuthi "ukunqunywa kwamadolo".

U-Long Zhiqiang utshele izintatheli ukuthi: “Ngo-2024, intengo ye-lithium carbonate ibonise ukuguquguquka nokukhuphuka okuthile, kodwa ukwehla okuphelele kwezintengo zamaseli ebhethri akukashintshi kakhulu.Njengamanje, intengo yebhethri iyonke yehle yafinyelela cishe ku-0.35 yuan/Wh, okudingeka ukuthi ibe njalo Ngokuya ngezinto ezifana nevolumu yoku-oda, izimo zohlelo lokusebenza, namandla aphelele ezinkampani zamaseli ebhethri, intengo yezinkampani ngazinye ingafinyelela ezingeni. ku-0.4 yuan/Wh.”

Ngokwezibalo ze-Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), izindleko zethiyori zamanje zeseli yesitoreji samandla se-lithium iron phosphate icishe ibe ngu-0.34 yuan/Wh.Ngokusobala, amafekthri ebhethri okugcina amandla asevele ezungeza emugqeni wezindleko.

“Njengamanje imakethe isigcwele kakhulu futhi isidingo asinamandla.Izinkampani zehlisa amanani entengo ukuze zibambe imakethe, okuhlanganisa nezinye izinkampani ezisusa i-inventory ngamanani aphansi, okubangele amanani entengo eyengeziwe.Ngaphansi kwalesi simo, izinkampani zebhethri zokugcina amandla sezivele zenza inzuzo encane noma zilahlekelwa imali.Uma kuqhathaniswa nama-Enterprise omugqa wokuqala, izingcaphuno zomkhiqizo zamabhizinisi esigaba sesibili nesesithathu zibandakanya kakhulu.”Kusho uZhiqiang Long.

U-Long Zhiqiang uphinde wathi: “Imboni yokugcina amandla izosheshisa ukuguqulwa kabusha ngo-2024, futhi izinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla zizokwethula izimo ezihlukene zokusinda.Kusukela ngonyaka odlule, imboni ibone ukuvalwa kokukhiqiza ngisho nokudilizwa.Izinga lokusebenza liphansi, amandla okukhiqiza awasebenzi, futhi imikhiqizo Ingakwazi't ithengiswe, ngakho-ke izothwala ingcindezi yokusebenza ngokwemvelo.”

I-Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance ikholelwa ukuthi imboni yokugcina amandla inqunyiwe, kodwa kusazothatha isikhathi ukusula umthamo wokukhiqiza nokugaya i-inventory.Ukubuyiselwa okusobala kwenzuzo yemboni kuncike ekwandeni kwesidingo kanye nesivinini sokwenza kahle nokulungiswa ngasohlangothini lokunikezela.I-InfoLink Consulting ngaphambilini ibikezele ukuthi inkinga yokugcwala ngokweqile kwamaseli ebhethri izokwehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2024. Kuhlanganiswe nokucatshangelwa kwezindleko zezinto ezibonakalayo, intengo yamaseli okugcina amandla izoba nesikhala esilinganiselwe sokwehla esikhathini esifushane.

Ukwehlukanisa inzuzo

Njengamanje, izinkampani zebhethri ye-lithium ngokuyisisekelo zihamba ngemilenze emibili: amabhethri amandla kanye namabhethri okugcina amandla.Nakuba ukuthunyelwa kokugcinwa kwamandla kuphuzile kancane, izinkampani zikubeke endaweni evelele.

Isibonelo, i-CATL "ingompetha ababili" mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwamabhethri anamandla namabhethri okugcina amandla.Ngaphambilini ihlonze izindawo ezintathu ezibalulekile: “isitoreji samandla e-electrochemical + ukukhiqizwa kwamandla avuselelekayo”, “amabhethri kagesi nezimoto zamandla amasha” kanye “nokufakwa kukagesi + nobuhlakani”.Isiqondiso esikhulu sokuthuthukiswa kwamasu.Eminyakeni emibili edlule, isikali sebhethri sokugcina amandla enkampani kanye nemali engenayo iye yaqhubeka ikhula, futhi iye yanwetshwa kusixhumanisi sokuhlanganiswa kwesistimu yokugcina amandla.I-BYD ingene endaweni yokugcina amandla kusukela ngo-2008 futhi yangena ezimakethe zaphesheya kusenesikhathi.Njengamanje, ibhethri yenkampani yokugcina amandla kanye namabhizinisi esistimu asezingeni lokuqala.NgoZibandlela wezi-2023, i-BYD iphinde yaqinisa uhlobo lwayo lokugcina amandla futhi yashintsha ngokusemthethweni igama le-Shenzhen Pingshan Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. yaba yi-Shenzhen BYD Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

Njengenkanyezi ekhulayo emkhakheni wamabhethri okugcina amandla, i-Haichen Energy Storage igxile embonini yokugcina amandla kusukela yasungulwa ngo-2019 futhi ibonise umfutho oqinile wentuthuko.Ikleliswe phakathi kwamabhethri amahlanu aphezulu okugcina amandla eminyakeni emine nje.Ngo-2023, i-Haichen Energy Storage yaqala ngokusemthethweni inqubo ye-IPO.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, iPenghui Energy (300438.SZ) iphinde isebenzisa isu lokugcina amandla“uhlela ukuzuza ukukhula okuhlanganisiwe okungaphezu kwama-50% eminyakeni emithathu kuya kwemihlanu ezayo, okudlula izigidigidi ezingama-30 emalini engenayo, futhi abe abahlinzeki abathandwayo embonini yokugcina amandla.”Ngo-2022, imali yebhizinisi yokugcina amandla yenkampani izobalelwa ku-54% wesamba semali engenayo.

Namuhla, endaweni enokuncintisana kakhulu, izici ezifana nomthelela womkhiqizo, uxhaso lwemali, ikhwalithi yomkhiqizo, isikali, izindleko, namashaneli ahlobene nempumelelo noma ukwehluleka kwezinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla.Ngo-2023, ukusebenza kwezinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla kuye kwahluka, futhi inzuzo yazo isesimeni esibucayi.

Ukusebenza kwezinkampani zamabhethri ezimelwe yi-CATL, BYD kanye ne-EV Lithium Energy konke kugcine ukukhula.Isibonelo, ngo-2023, i-Ningde Times yazuza imali engenayo yokusebenza engama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-400.91, ukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngama-22.01%, kanye nenzuzo yonke edalwe ngabaninimasheya bezinkampani ezisohlwini yayingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-44.121, okuwukukhula konyaka nonyaka 43.58%.Phakathi kwazo, imali engenayo yesistimu yebhethri yokugcina amandla yenkampani yayingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-59.9, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-33.17%, okuhlanganisa u-14.94% wemali engenayo isiyonke.Isamba senzuzo yomkhawulo wesistimu yebhethri yokugcina amandla yenkampani ibe ngu-23.79%, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-6.78%.

Ngokuphambene, ukusebenza kwezinkampani ezifana ne-Ruipu Lanjun kanye nePenghui Energy kuveza isithombe esihlukile.

Phakathi kwabo, uRuipu Lanjun ubikezela ukulahlekelwa kwe-1.8 billion kuya ku-2 billion yuan ngo-2023;IPenghui Energy ibikezela ukuthi inzuzo esele etholakala kubanikazi bamasheya bezinkampani ezisohlwini ngo-2023 izoba ngama-yuan ayizigidi ezingama-58 kuye kwangama-85, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-86.47% kuya ku-90.77%.

I-Penghui Energy ithe: “Ngenxa yokwehla okukhulu kwentengo yezinto ezikhuphuka nomfula i-lithium carbonate, kuhambisana nokuncintisana kwemakethe, intengo yokuthengisa yeyunithi yemikhiqizo yebhethri ye-lithium yenkampani yehle kakhulu, okuye kwabekwa phezu kwezici zokudiliza ezinkampanini ezansi nomfula, ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte imali engenayo kanye nenzuzo;ukuncishiswa kwentengo yomkhiqizo nakho Lokhu kubangele inani elikhulu lokunikezwa kokwehla kwenani lempahla ekupheleni kwenkathi, ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte inzuzo yenkampani.”

U-Long Zhiqiang utshele izintatheli: “I-CATL yenza imizamo emikhulu ezimakethe zasekhaya nezangaphandle.Izinga layo, uhlobo, ubuchwepheshe kanye nesilinganiso akuqhathaniswa embonini.Imikhiqizo yayo inamandla e-premium, i-0.08-0.1 yuan/Wh ephakeme kunaleyo yontanga yayo.Ngaphezu kwalokho, Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkampani iye yandisa izinsiza zayo ezikhuphukayo futhi yasayina ukubambisana namakhasimende amakhulu asekhaya nawakwamanye amazwe, okwenza isikhundla sayo semakethe sibe nzima ukuzamazama.Ngokuphambene, amandla aphelele ezinkampani zamabhethri okugcina amandla esigaba sesibili nesesithathu adinga ukuthuthukiswa nakakhulu.Kunegebe elikhulu ngokwesilinganiso sodwa, okwenza nezindleko zayo zingabi nenzuzo futhi inzuzo yayo ibe buthaka.”

Ukuncintisana kwemakethe ye-Brutal kuhlola ukuncintisana okuphelele kwamabhizinisi.U-Liu Jincheng, usihlalo we-Yiwei Lithium Energy, muva nje uthe: “Ukwenza amabhethri okugcina amandla ngokwemvelo kudinga isikhathi eside nezimfuneko eziphakeme zekhwalithi ngokwako.Amakhasimende aphansi azoqonda idumela nokusebenza komlando kwamafekthri ebhethri.Izimboni zamabhethri sezivele zihlukanisiwe ngo-2023. , 2024 izoba yindawo yamanzi;isimo sezimali sezimboni zamabhethri sizophinde sibe ukucatshangelwa okubalulekile kumakhasimende.Izinkampani ezisebenzisa ngobumpumputhe amasu entengo ephansi zizokuthola kunzima ukunqoba izinkampani ezihamba phambili ezinamazinga aphezulu okukhiqiza.Intengo yevolumu akuyona inkundla yempi eyinhloko, futhi ayinakusimama .”

Intatheli yaqaphela ukuthi endaweni yemakethe yamanje, nakuba inzuzo iqhubeka ingaphansi kwengcindezi, izinkampani zokugcina amandla zisenokulindela okuhlukile kwemigomo yebhizinisi.

U-Liu Jincheng uveze ukuthi umgomo webhizinisi le-Yiwei Lithium Energy ngo-2024 uwukulima kakhulu futhi ubuyisele izinhlayiya ezindaweni zokugcina impahla, ngethemba lokuthi yonke ifektri eyakhiwe ingathola inzuzo.Phakathi kwazo, mayelana namabhethri okugcina amandla, sizolwela ukuqhubeka nokuthuthukisa izinga lokulethwa kulo nyaka nonyaka ozayo, futhi kusukela kulo nyaka, sizokwandisa kancane kancane isilinganiso sokulethwa kwe-Pack (iphakethe lebhethri) kanye nesistimu.

U-Ruipu Lanjun ushilo ngaphambilini ukuthi ukholelwa ukuthi inkampani ingathola inzuzo futhi ikhiqize imali engenayo yokusebenza kwemali ngo-2025. Ngaphezu kokulungisa izintengo zomkhiqizo, inkampani izofeza izinhloso zayo ngokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza, ithuthukise ikhono layo lokuphendula ukushintshashintsha kwezindleko zempahla eluhlaza, ukwandisa imali yokuthengisa, kanye nokwenza umnotho wezinga.