I-BP kanye ne-Statoil bakhansele izinkontileka zokudayisa amandla avela kumaphrojekthi amakhulu omoya ogwini lolwandle aye esifundazweni saseNew York, okuyisibonakaliso sokuthi izindleko eziphezulu zizoqhubeka nokuhlupha imboni.Kodwa akukhona konke ukubhubha nosizi.Nokho, umkhathi eMpumalanga Ephakathi, umkhiqizi oyinhloko kawoyela negesi yemvelo emhlabeni, usalokhu umubi.Nakhu ukubhekisisa izitayela ezinhlanu ezivelayo embonini yezamandla onyakeni ozayo.
1. Amanani kawoyela kufanele ahlale ezinzile naphezu kokuguquguquka
Imakethe kawoyela iqale ngo-2024. I-Brent crude yahlala ku-$78.25 umphongolo, yeqa ngaphezu kuka-$2.Ukuqhuma kwamabhomu e-Iran kugqamisa ukungezwani okuqhubekayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi.Ukungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo kwezwe - ikakhulukazi amathuba okukhula kwengxabano phakathi kwe-Israel ne-Hamas - kusho ukuguquguquka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe kuzoqhubeka, kodwa abahlaziyi abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi i-bearish fundamentals izokhawulela ukuzuza kwentengo.

Phezu kwalokho ukushoda kwedatha yezomnotho emhlabeni jikelele.Ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela wase-US kwaba namandla ngokungalindelekile, okusiza ekulawuleni amanani.Khonamanjalo, ukulwa phakathi kwe-OPEC+, njengokuhoxa kwe-Angola eqenjini ngenyanga edlule, kuphakamise imibuzo mayelana nekhono layo lokulondoloza amanani kawoyela ngokunciphisa umkhiqizo.
I-US Energy Information Administration ihlela ukuthi amanani kawoyela afinyelele cishe ku-$83 emgqonyeni ngo-2024.
2. Kungase kube khona indawo eyengeziwe yemisebenzi ye-M&A
Kwalandela uchungechunge lwezivumelwano ezinkulu zikawoyela negesi ngo-2023: I-Exxon Mobil nePioneer Natural Resources ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-60, iChevron neHess ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-53, isivumelwano se-Occidental Petroleum kanye ne-Krone- Rock sifinyelela ku-$12 billion.
Ukuncipha kokuncintisana ngezinsiza - ikakhulukazi ku-Permian Basin ekhiqiza kakhulu - kusho ukuthi kungenzeka kube namadili amaningi njengoba izinkampani zibheke ukuvala izinsiza zokumba.Kepha njengoba izinkampani eziningi ezinkulu sezivele zithatha isinyathelo, osayizi bamadili ngo-2024 kungenzeka babe mancane.
Phakathi kwezinkampani ezinkulu zaseMelika, uConocoPhillips akakayingeni inhlangano.Ayaqina amahlebezi okuthi uShell neBP bangase bahlanganise “imboni-seismic”, kodwa isikhulu esisha sakwaShell uVail Savant sigcizelela ukuthi ukuthengwa kwezinto ezinkulu akuyona into ehamba phambili phakathi kwamanje no-2025.
3. Naphezu kobunzima, ukwakhiwa kwamandla avuselelekayo kuzoqhubeka
Izindleko eziphakeme zokuboleka, amanani entengo aphezulu kanye nezinselelo zokuvumela kuzothinta imboni yamandla avuselelekayo ngo-2024, kodwa ukuthunyelwa kwephrojekthi kuzoqhubeka nokusetha amarekhodi.
Ngokwesibikezelo se-International Energy Agency sikaJuni 2023, ngaphezu kuka-460 GW wamaphrojekthi wamandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuthi afakwe emhlabeni wonke ngo-2024, okuyirekhodi eliphezulu kakhulu.I-US Energy Information Administration ibikezela ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omoya kanye nelanga kuzodlula ukukhiqizwa kukagesi wamalahle okokuqala ngqa ngo-2024.
Amaphrojekthi elanga azothuthukisa ukukhula komhlaba wonke, amandla afakiwe ngonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi akhule ngo-7%, kuyilapho amandla amasha avela kumaphrojekthi omoya ogwini nasogwini azoba ngaphansi kancane kunango-2023. Ngokusho kwe-International Energy Agency, amaphrojekthi amaningi amasha avuselelekayo azosetshenziswa. e-China, kanti i-China kulindeleke ukuthi ihlanganise amaphesenti angama-55 engqikithi yamandla afakiwe emhlabeni wamaphrojekthi amasha avuselelwe kabusha ngo-2024.
I-2024 nayo ibhekwa "njengonyaka wokwenza noma wekhefu" wamandla ahlanzekile e-hydrogen.Okungenani amazwe ayisishiyagalolunye amemezele izinhlelo zoxhaso zokuthuthukisa ukukhiqizwa kukaphethiloli osafufusa, ngokusho kwe-S&P Global Commodities, kodwa izimpawu zokukhuphuka kwezindleko nesidingo esibuthakathaka zishiye imboni ingaqiniseki.
4. Ijubane lokubuya kwemboni yase-US lizokhula ngesivinini
Kusukela yasayinwa ngo-2022, uMthetho Wokwehliswa Kokwehla Kwamandla Emali uye washukumisela i-United States ukuthi itshale imali eningi ekumemezeleni izimboni ezintsha zobuchwepheshe ezingenasici.Kepha u-2024 ungowokuqala ngqa ukuthi sizoba nokucaca ukuthi izinkampani zingafinyelela kanjani kumakhredithi entela anenzuzo okuthiwa asemthethweni, nokuthi ukwakhiwa kwalezo zitshalo ezimenyezelwe kuzoqala ngempela yini.
Lezi izikhathi ezinzima zokukhiqiza eMelika.Ukuthuthuka kokukhiqiza kuhambisana nemakethe yezabasebenzi eqinile kanye nezindleko zempahla eluhlaza.Lokhu kungase kuholele ekubambezelekeni kwefekthri kanye nezindleko ezinkulu kunebezilindelwe.Ukuthi i-United States ingakwazi yini ukukhuphula ukwakhiwa kwamafekthri zobuchwepheshe ahlanzekile ngezindleko ezincintisanayo kuzoba yinkinga ebalulekile ekusetshenzisweni kohlelo lokubuyisela izimboni.
I-Deloitte Consulting ibikezela ukuthi izimboni zokukhiqiza izingxenye zamandla omoya eziyi-18 ezihleliwe zizoqala ukwakhiwa ngo-2024 njengoba ukubambisana okwengeziwe phakathi kwezifundazwe zasoGwini oluseMpumalanga kanye nohulumeni wobumbano kunikeza ukusekelwa ekwakhiweni kwamaketango okuphakelwa kwamandla omoya ogwini lolwandle.
UDeloitte uthi amandla okukhiqiza amamojula elanga asekhaya ase-US azophindeka kathathu kulo nyaka futhi asendleleni yokuhlangabezana nesidingo ekupheleni kweminyaka eyishumi.Kodwa-ke, ukukhiqizwa ezindaweni eziphezulu ze-supply chain kubambezeleke ukubamba.Izitshalo zokuqala zase-US zokukhiqiza amaseli elanga, ama-wafers elanga nama-ingots elanga kulindeleke ukuthi zize ku-inthanethi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka.
5. I-United States izoqinisa ukubusa kwayo emkhakheni we-LNG
Ngokwezilinganiso zokuqala zabahlaziyi, i-United States izodlula i-Qatar ne-Australia ukuze ibe umkhiqizi omkhulu we-LNG emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023. Idatha ye-Bloomberg ibonisa ukuthi i-United States yathumela ngaphandle kwamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-91 e-LNG unyaka wonke.
Ngo-2024, i-United States izoqinisa ukulawula kwayo imakethe ye-LNG.Uma konke kuhamba kahle, amandla amanje okukhiqiza e-LNG e-US angaba ngu-11.5 billion cubic feet ngosuku azokwengezwa ngamaphrojekthi amabili amasha azosakazwa ngo-2024: eyodwa eTexas kanye neyodwa eLouisiana.Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi bakwa-Clear View Energy Partners, amaphrojekthi amathathu afinyelela esigabeni sesinqumo sokugcina esibalulekile sokutshala izimali ngo-2023. Cishe amaphrojekthi ayisithupha angavunyelwa ngo-2024, nomthamo ohlanganisiwe wama-cubic feet ayi-6 billion ngosuku.