Kuhlanganiswe nesimo samanje sokusebenza ngokweqile kanye nokuncipha kwesidingo embonini ye-photovoltaic ngo-2023, izindlela ezintathu ezilandelayo zokuthuthukiswa zizokwakhiwa ngo-2024, ezithinta ukuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi eside kwemboni ye-photovoltaic:

1) Ubuchwepheshe buhola indlela futhi buhamba ngemijikelezo.Iphansi lemijikelezo yangaphambilini liye lahambisana nezinguquko ezinkulu kwezobuchwepheshe, futhi inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe ekugcineni ingaqaphela isimiso sokuqala sokunciphisa izindleko nokwandisa ukusebenza kahle embonini ye-photovoltaic;

2) Isikhathi sokunwebeka phesheya kwezilwandle.Ngokumelene nesizinda sokuncipha kwesidingo sasekhaya, izinkampani nakanjani zizofuna imigudu ehlukahlukene yemakethe ukuze kuqedwe umthamo oweqile wokukhiqiza.Uma kukhona amathuba okuhlanganisa, ukutholwa kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha, angasheshisa futhi ukufezeka kokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke;

3) Ukuthuthukiswa okuhle kwezinhlelo ezintsha zokusekela amandla kanye nemishini.Ukubambezeleka ekwakhiweni kwesistimu kagesi kuthinte kakhulu izinga lokukhula kwamandla afakiwe asabalalisiwe, okuholele ekwehleni kwesidingo.Ukuthuthukiswa kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngesivinini eminyakeni engama-24.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukugcinwa kwamandla, njengesikhungo esibalulekile esisekelayo, kulindeleke ukuthi kuzuze kulokhu.

1. Ukuhlaziywa kwe-Photovoltaic industry chain supply and demand analysis

1.1 Uhlangothi lwenqubomgomo luqondisa ngenkuthalo ukuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu yemboni ye-photovoltaic

Uhlangothi lwenqubomgomo lusabela ngenkuthalo ekuncipheni komjikelezo okubangelwa ukwanda okusheshayo kwamandla okukhiqiza we-photovoltaic.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ijubane le-IPO kanye nokuxhaswa kabusha kuzoqiniswa ngezigaba zokulawula ukwanda okusheshayo kwemboni ye-photovoltaic.Abanye abadlali abasha nezinkampani ezinemali enganele bazokhawulelwa ngokuqondile.Ikhono lenkampani le-hematopoietic libaluleke kakhulu.Ukugxila kwemboni kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule futhi isimo sokuncintisana sizothuthukiswa ngokwengeziwe.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-symposium yebhizinisi lokukhiqiza igxile ekuthuthukisweni kwekhwalithi ephezulu yemboni ye-photovoltaic, ukuqondisa nokusekela ukusungulwa kwezobuchwepheshe kwebhizinisi kanye nokuhlelwa okunengqondo kwamandla okukhiqiza embonini ye-photovoltaic.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, imboni yezwe lami ye-photovoltaic incike kakhulu emakethe yomhlaba wonke.Eminyakeni yakamuva, isikali sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe sibe sikhulu kunesilinganiso sezingxenye ezifakiwe zasekhaya.Kodwa-ke, inqubomgomo yentela yase-US emikhiqizweni ye-photovoltaic engenisiwe ishintshile kaningi, njengophenyo olumelene nokweqa kanye nokusetshenziswa kwe-UFLPA.Ukusungulwa kwesivumelwano sokubambisana ekuthuthukisweni kuthumele isignali enhle ekuthunyelweni kwezwe lami komkhiqizo we-photovoltaic.

1.2 Ukunikezwa: Inkampani yehlise isivinini sokunwetshwa kokukhiqiza futhi inezimali ezanele zemali.

Inkampani ikhawulela isivinini sayo sokukhula futhi kancane kancane ikhulisa ukwakheka kwayo okuseceleni kokuhlinzeka.Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Oriental Fortune, engxenyeni yokuqala neyesibili ka-2023, izinkampani ezingu-60 embonini ye-photovoltaic zaqala ukubuyisela imali nge-avareji yekota yamayuan angaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-100.Phakathi kwazo, izinkampani ezisohlwini ezingu-45 zikhulise ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-115.8 ngokukhipha okwengeziwe, futhi izinkampani ezingu-11 zakhipha amabhondi aguqukayo ukuze zikhuphule ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-53.1.I-Yuan, amasheya amasha angu-3 afakwe ohlwini futhi akhuphule ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-4.659;ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, engxenyeni yokuqala ye-2023, ukunwetshwa kwesikali sokukhiqizwa kwe-silicon kuzofinyelela amathani angu-760,000, isikali se-silicon wafers sizofinyelela ku-442GW, futhi isikali samaseli nezingxenye sizofinyelela ku-1,100GW.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukuxhaswa ngezimali kanye nokwandiswa kokukhiqizwa kwezinkampani ze-photovoltaic kwakugcwele ngokugcwele.

Kodwa-ke, njengezinto ezinjengokugcwala kancane kancane kwezinto ze-silicon, ukucindezelwa okusheshayo kwenzuzo eyeqile yamaseli e-TOPCon, ukwehla kwesikhungo senzuzo sochungechunge lwezimboni, ukwehla kokukhula kwesidingo, kanye nokuqiniswa ngezigaba kwe-IPO kanye nokuxhaswa ngezimali kabusha, imakethe yemali yaqala ukuphola, futhi imboni ye-photovoltaic kusukela Ikota yesithathu ibonise ukuthambekela okusobala okubonakalayo kokuthuthukiswa ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka.Isibonelo, engxenyeni yesithathu, ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwemboni ye-photovoltaic kwakungaphansi kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-50;kusukela ku-Q3, uma kubhekwa inqubekelaphambili yangempela yamaphrojekthi okunwetshwa okumenyezelwe yimboni, zonke izixhumanisi zochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic ziye zehla kusukela ngo-2023. Inqubekelaphambili yeminye imiklamo efinyelela ekukhiqizeni ihamba kancane kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuzimisela okuphelele kwemboni yokwandisa umkhiqizo kuzokwehla kakhulu engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024.

1.3 Isidingo: Q4 Umthamo ofakiwe wasekhaya ukhuphuke kakhulu, kuyilapho inani lokuthekelisa kanye nesikali kokubili kwehlile.

Ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2023, isilinganiso sokubhida kwengxenye yasekhaya sikhule kakhulu unyaka nonyaka.Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Gaisi Consulting, isikali sokubhida samamojula asekhaya ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2023 sasingu-295.85GW, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-90%;isilinganiso sebhidi ephumelele imojuli sasingu-463.50GW, okuwukukhula konyaka nonyaka ngo-219.3%, lapho isilinganiso saso sokubhida semojula yasekhaya ngo-September sasingu-56.2GW, ukukhuphuka kwenyanga nenyanga ngo-50.7%, kanye nesilinganiso sokuwina samamojula sasingu-39.1 GW, ukwehla kwenyanga nenyanga ngama-35.8%.

Isidingo sengxenye kulindeleke ukuthi sehle ngekota yesine, kanti ukuthengwa kwengxenye engu-N kubalwa ngaphezu kwesigamu.Ngokwemininingwane ye-SMM, ukulinganisa kwemojula yohlobo lwe-N kubonise ukukhula okukhulu kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya ku-Okthoba 2023, nesikali sokulinganisa singaphezu kuka-20GW.Phakathi kwazo, isilinganiso sokuthengwa kwempahla ngo-Okthoba sasingu-22.91GW, kanti ingxenye yemojula yohlobo lwe-N yayingu-53%.Ngenxa yenzuzo yokuqala yokuhambisa ubuchwepheshe be-TOPCon, ibambe ngaphezu kuka-70% wesabelo esiphelele ekubhideni nasekuthengeni okuphakathi kwamanye amabhizinisi amaphakathi nekahulumeni, okubonisa ukuthi inkambiso yamabhethri ohlobo lwe-N athatha indawo ye-P- amabhethri ohlobo ayakhula kancane kancane.Njengoba amanani ochungechungeni lwezimboni eqhubeka nokwehla, isidingo semojula kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngaphansi kunalokho okulindelekile kwikota yesine, kanti ukugaya kwe-inventory yinto ebaluleke kakhulu kuqala, kodwa amamojula ohlobo lwe-N asazolandisa ngenani eliphezulu.

Umthamo omusha ofakwe endaweni eyodwa kulindeleke ukuthi ulondoloze ukukhula kwikota yesine.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2023, amandla e-photovoltaic asanda kufakwa ezweni lami abe ngu-142.6GW, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-145%.Phakathi kwazo, umthamo osanda kufakwa ngo-Okthoba ubungu-13.6GW, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-142%, nokwehla kwenyanga nenyanga ngo-14%.Isizathu sokuncipha kungase kube umthelela wamaholide.Ngokombono wesakhiwo samandla afakiwe, umthamo ofakiwe osabalalisiwe wedlula ama-50% ngo-2023, futhi umthamo ofakiwe ofakwe endaweni eyodwa anda ngokushesha unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwazo, umthamo ofakiwe we-Q3 esabalalisiwe wawungu-26.2GW, ubalwa ku-51.8%, futhi umthamo ofakwe endaweni eyodwa wawungu-24.3GW, ubalwa ku-48.2%.Njengoba amanani ezixhumanisini ezihlukene ochungechungeni lwezimboni eqhubeka nokwehla muva nje, umthamo ofakwe endaweni eyodwa kulindeleke ukuthi ulondoloze ukukhula kusukela ngoNovemba kuya kuDisemba.

Ukuthunyelwa komkhiqizo we-Photovoltaic kokubili kwehle ngenani nesikali ngo-Okthoba.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2023, inani lezwe lami lokuthekelisa eliqongelelwe lemikhiqizo ye-photovoltaic (izinduku ze-silicon, ama-silicon wafers, amaseli, amamojula) lalingama-US$43.766 wezigidigidi, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-2.6%.Phakathi kwazo, inani lokuthekelisa ngo-Okthoba lafinyelela ku-US$3.094 billion, ukwehla konyaka ngonyaka ngama-24.7%.Ukwehla kwenyanga nenyanga kube ngu-19.2%, okuphansi kakhulu ngenyanga eyodwa eminyakeni emibili edlule.Isizathu esiyinhloko kwakuwukuthi isisekelo esiphezulu ngonyaka odlule siholele ekucindezelweni okukhulu kokuncipha kwezinye izifunda.

Ngokwedatha ye-InfoLink, isilinganiso semojula eqoqwayo yezwe lami sokuthekelisa kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2023 sasingu-174.1 GW, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-30.6%.Phakathi kwazo, isikali sokuthunyelwa kwemojula ngo-Okthoba sasingu-16.5 GW, ukunyuka konyaka ngo-39.8%, kanye nokwehla kwenyanga nenyanga ngo-16.7%.Ezinyangeni ezimbili zokugcina zalo nyaka, ngenxa yamaholide angaphandle kanye nengcindezi ye-inventory, kulindeleke ukuthi kokubili umthamo kanye nesilinganiso sokuthekelisa kuzokwehla.

Inani elikhulu lezimpahla ezidonswa engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka lingaholela ekwehleni kwesidingo emakethe yaseYurophu engxenyeni yesine.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2023, amazwe amahlanu aphezulu kumthamo wengxenye yezwe lami okuthunyelwa ngaphandle yi-Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, India, kanye ne-Saudi Arabia.Phakathi kwazo, ivolumu yokuthekelisa yamazwe anjengeSaudi Arabia neBelgium inyuke kakhulu unyaka nonyaka.Imakethe yaseYurophu okwamanje ingelinye lamazwe abaluleke kakhulu ekuthunyelweni komkhiqizo we-photovoltaic wezwe lami.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba, iYurophu ingenise ingqikithi ye-91.6GW yamamojula we-photovoltaic, ukwanda konyaka ngonyaka kwe-22.6%.Phakathi kwazo, i-China yathumela ngaphandle kwe-6.2GW yamamojula we-photovoltaic aseYurophu ngo-Okthoba, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-10%.Ukwehla ngo-18% kudalwe ikakhulukazi ukuqoqwa kwempahla okudalwe yinani elikhulu lezimpahla engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka.Kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sisonke e-Europe sehle kakhulu engxenyeni yesine yesizini yangaphandle yendabuko.

Ngo-2023, izinga lokukhula kwamandla amasha afakiwe emhlabeni kanye neChina kulindeleke ukuthi lifike phezulu, futhi izinga lokukhula kulindeleke ukuthi lehle kakhulu eminyakeni engama-24-25.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba kulo nyaka, amandla e-photovoltaic asanda kufakwa ezweni lami afinyelele ku-142.56GW, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-144.78%.Phakathi kwabo, umthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa ngo-Okthoba wawungu-13.62GW, ukwanda konyaka ngonyaka we-141.49%.