Kutshanje, umbutho wokucebisana wezizwe ngezizwe we-SNE Uphando ukhuphe idatha yokuthunyelwa kwebhetri yogcino lwamandla kwihlabathi ngo-2023 kunye noluhlu lwenkampani yokugcina amandla ebhetri ye-lithium, itsala umdla wentengiso.

Idatha efanelekileyo ibonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwebhetri yokugcina amandla kwihlabathi jikelele kufikelele kwi-185GWh kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ukonyuka konyaka-ngonyaka malunga ne-53%.Xa ujonga ezona bhetri ziphezulu zilishumi zogcino lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2023, iinkampani zaseTshayina zithatha izihlalo ezisibhozo, zibalelwa malunga ne-90% yothutho.Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yomthamo wamaxesha athile, ukuhla kwamaxabiso kwimathiriyeli ekrwada enyukayo iyasasazwa, iimfazwe zamaxabiso abekwe ngaphezulu ziyaqina, kwaye ingxinano yentengiso yebhetri yokugcina amandla iyanda ngakumbi.I-CATL kuphela (300750.SZ), i-BYD (002594.SZ), kunye ne-Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 .SZ), i-Ruipu Lanjun (0666.HK), kunye ne-Haichen Energy Storage, isabelo semarike yeenkampani ezintlanu ezihamba phambili zidlula i-75% .

Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, imarike yebhetri yokugcina amandla iye yatshintsha ngokukhawuleza.Okwakukhe kwabonwa njengoxinzelelo lwexabiso olwalusilwa ngoku sele lulwandle olubomvu lokhuphiswano lwamaxabiso aphantsi, neenkampani ezizimisele ukukhuphisana ngesabelo semalike yehlabathi ngamaxabiso aphantsi.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yezakhono zokulawula iindleko ezingalinganiyo zeenkampani ezahlukeneyo, ukusebenza kweenkampani zebhetri zokugcina amandla ngo-2023 ziya kwahlulwa.Ezinye iinkampani ziphumelele ukukhula, ngelixa ezinye ziye zawela ekuhlahleni okanye kwilahleko.Ngokwembono yoshishino, u-2024 uya kuba ngunyaka obalulekileyo wamanzi kunye nonyaka obalulekileyo wokukhawulezisa ukusinda kwabanamandla kunye nokuhlengahlengisa ipateni yogcino lwebhetri lwemalike.

U-Long Zhiqiang, umphandi ophezulu kwi-Xinchen Information, uthe kudliwano-ndlebe kunye nentatheli evela kwi-China Business News ukuba iinkampani zokugcina amandla ebhetri zenza inzuzo encinci okanye zilahlekelwe yimali.Ngenxa yokuba iinkampani zenqanaba lokuqala zinokhuphiswano olomeleleyo olubanzi kwaye iimveliso zazo zinamandla omgangatho wokuqala, iinkampani zenqanaba lesibini kunye nelesithathu zibandakanyeka kakhulu ngaphakathi kwiikowuteshini zemveliso, ngoko ke ukwenza kwabo inzuzo kuyahluka.

Uxinzelelo lweendleko

Ngo-2023, ngokukhula kwamandla amatsha afakwe amandla kunye nokuwa kwexabiso lezinto eziluhlaza ze-lithium carbonate, imarike yokugcina amandla yehlabathi iya kukhula ngokukhawuleza, ngaloo ndlela ikhulise imfuno yokugcina amandla ebhetri.Nangona kunjalo, kunye noku, amandla okuvelisa ibhetri yokugcina amandla angenile kwixesha le-surplus ngenxa yokwandiswa ngokukhawuleza kwemveliso ngabadlali abatsha nabadala.

Ngokutsho kwe-InfoLink Consulting's forecast, amandla okuvelisa ibhetri yehlabathi jikelele aya kuba kufuphi ne-3,400GWh ngo-2024, apho iiseli zokugcina amandla zithatha i-22%, ukufikelela kwi-750GWh.Kwangaxeshanye, ukuthunyelwa kweeseli zebhetri yokugcina amandla kuya kukhula nge-35% ngo-2024, ukufikelela kwi-266GWh.Ingabonwa ukuba imfuno kunye nonikezelo lweeseli zokugcina amandla azihambelani kakhulu.

U-Long Zhiqiang uxelele iintatheli: "Okwangoku, amandla onke okugcina amandla okuvelisa iiseli afikelele kwi-500GWh, kodwa imfuno yokwenene yoshishino kulo nyaka kukuba kunzima ukufikelela kwi-300GWh.Kule meko, umthamo wemveliso ongaphezulu kwe-200GWh awusebenzi ngokwemvelo. ”

Ukwandiswa okugqithisileyo komthamo wemveliso yeenkampani zokugcina amandla ebhetri sisiphumo sezinto ezininzi.Kwimeko yokukhawuleza ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, imboni yokugcina amandla inyuke ngokukhawuleza kunye nophuhliso lwemarike yokuvelisa amandla ombane omtsha.Abadlali abanqumla umda bayagxalathelana, bangxamele ukusebenza kunye nokwabelana, kwaye bonke bafuna ukufumana isiqwenga sepayi.Ngelo xesha, abanye oorhulumente basekhaya baye bajonga imboni yebhetri ye-lithium njengento ekugxilwe kuyo ekukhuthazeni utyalo-mali, ukutsala iinkampani zebhetri zokugcina amandla ngokuxhaswa, imigaqo-nkqubo ekhethwayo, njl. ukuxhasa ukuphunyezwa kweeprojekthi.Ukongeza, ngoncedo lwenkunzi, iinkampani zokugcina amandla ebhetri ziye zaqhubela phambili isantya sokwandisa ngokunyusa iinzame zophando kunye nophuhliso, ukwandisa umthamo wemveliso, kunye nokuphucula ukwakhiwa kwetshaneli.

Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yobuninzi bexesha, ixabiso elipheleleyo leshishini lokugcinwa kwamandla libonise ukuhla kwenyuka ukususela ngo-2023. Njengoko imfazwe yexabiso phezu kwexabiso le-lithium carbonate iqinisa, ixabiso leeseli zokugcina amandla liye lehla ukusuka ngaphantsi kwe-1. yuan/Wh ekuqaleni kuka-2023 ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-0.35 yuan/Wh.Ukuhla kukhulu kangangokuba kunokuthiwa "ukunqunyulwa kwamadolo".

U-Long Zhiqiang uxelele iintatheli: "Ngo-2024, ixabiso le-lithium carbonate libonise ukuguquguquka okuthile kunye nokunyuka, kodwa ukuhla ngokubanzi kwamaxabiso eeseli zebhetri ayikatshintshi kakhulu.Okwangoku, ixabiso leseli yebhetri lilonke lehlile laya kutsho malunga ne-0.35 yuan/Wh, ekufuneka ixhomekeke kwizinto ezifana nomthamo weodolo, iimeko zesicelo, kunye namandla abanzi eenkampani zeeseli zebhetri, ixabiso lenkampani nganye linokufikelela kwinqanaba. ye-0.4 yuan/Wh.”

Ngokwezibalo ezenziwa yi-Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), ixabiso langoku lethiyori ye-280Ah lithium yentsimbi yokugcina amandla i-phosphate cell imalunga ne-0.34 yuan/Wh.Ngokucacileyo, iifektri zebhetri zokugcina amandla sele zihamba ngexabiso.

“Okwangoku, intengiso ibonelelwa ngokugqithisileyo kwaye imfuno ayinamandla.Iinkampani zinciphisa amaxabiso ukuze zibambe imarike, kubandakanywa ezinye iinkampani ezisusa uluhlu lwempahla ngamaxabiso aphantsi, nto leyo ebangele amaxabiso adandatheke ngakumbi.Ngaphantsi kwale meko, iinkampani zokugcina amandla ebhetri sele zenza inzuzo encinci okanye zilahlekelwe yimali.Xa kuthelekiswa namashishini odidi lokuqala, iikowuteshini zemveliso zamashishini akwinqanaba lesibini nelesithathu zibandakanyeka kakhulu.”Watsho uZhiqiang ende.

U-Long Zhiqiang uphinde wathi: "Ishishini lokugcina amandla liya kukhawulezisa ukuhlenga kwakhona ngo-2024, kwaye iinkampani zokugcina amandla ebhetri ziza kubonisa iimeko ezahlukeneyo zokusinda.Ukusukela kunyaka ophelileyo, ishishini libone ukuvalwa kwemveliso kunye nokudelwa.Izinga lokusebenza liphantsi, umthamo wemveliso awusebenzi, kunye neemveliso Iyakwazi't iyathengiswa, ngoko ke iya kuthwala uxinzelelo lokusebenza ngokwendalo.”

I-Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance ikholelwa ukuba i-bottom ye-industry yokugcina amandla inqunywe, kodwa kuya kuthatha ixesha elithile ukucima amandla okuvelisa kunye nokugaya i-inventory.Ukubuyiswa okubonakalayo kwenzuzo yoshishino kuxhomekeke ekwandeni kwemfuno kunye nesantya sokulungiswa kunye nokulungiswa kwicala lokubonelela.I-InfoLink Consulting yaxela kwangaphambili ukuba ingxaki yokugqithiswa kweeseli zebhetri iya kuphuma phantsi kwikota yokuqala ye-2024. Idityaniswe nokuqwalaselwa kweendleko zezinto eziphathekayo, ixabiso leeseli zokugcina amandla liya kuba nesithuba esincinci sokuhla kwixesha elifutshane.

Ukwahlula inzuzo

Okwangoku, iinkampani zebhetri ze-lithium zihamba ngokusisiseko kwimilenze emibini: iibhetri zamandla kunye neebhetri zokugcina amandla.Nangona ukuthunyelwa kogcino lwamandla kusemva kwexesha kancinane, iinkampani ziyibeke kwindawo ebalaseleyo.

Ngokomzekelo, i-CATL "yintshatsheli ephindwe kabini" malunga nokuthunyelwa kweebhetri zamandla kunye neebhetri zokugcina amandla.Ngaphambili ichonge iinkalo ezintathu eziphambili: "ukugcinwa kwamandla e-electrochemical + ukuveliswa kwamandla avuselelekayo", "iibhetri zamandla kunye neenqwelo zamandla amatsha" kunye "nombane + wobukrelekrele".Isikhokelo sophuhliso lweqhinga elikhulu.Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, isikali sebhetri yokugcina amandla kunye nengeniso iqhubekile ikhula, kwaye iye yanda ngakumbi kwikhonkco lokudibanisa inkqubo yokugcina amandla.I-BYD ingene kwindawo yokugcina amandla kwangoko ngo-2008 kwaye yangena kwiimarike zaphesheya kwangoko.Okwangoku, ibhetri yokugcina amandla yenkampani kunye namashishini enkqubo akwinqanaba lokuqala.NgoDisemba ka-2023, i-BYD yomeleza ngakumbi uphawu lwayo lokugcina amandla kwaye yatshintsha ngokusemthethweni igama le-Shenzhen Pingshan Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. ukuya kwi-Shenzhen BYD Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

Njengenkwenkwezi ekhulayo kwintsimi yeebhetri zokugcina amandla, i-Haichen Energy Storage igxininise kwi-industry yokugcina amandla ukususela ekusekweni kwayo kwi-2019 kwaye ibonise uphuhliso olunamandla.Ibeke phakathi kweebhetri ezintlanu eziphezulu zokugcina amandla kwiminyaka nje emine.Ngo-2023, i-Haichen Energy Storage yaqala ngokusemthethweni inkqubo ye-IPO.

Ukongeza, i-Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) iphinda iphumeze isicwangciso sokugcina amandla,“izicwangciso zokuzuza ukukhula okudityanisiweyo okungaphezulu kwama-50% kule minyaka mithathu ukuya kwemihlanu izayo, ngaphaya kweebhiliyoni ezingama-30 kwingeniso, kwaye ube ngoyena mthengisi uthandwayo kushishino lokugcina amandla.”Ngo-2022, ingeniso yeshishini yokugcina amandla yenkampani iya kwenza i-54% yengeniso epheleleyo.

Namhlanje, kwindawo ekhuphisanayo ngokukrakra, izinto ezifana nempembelelo ye-brand, inkxaso-mali, umgangatho wemveliso, isikali, ixabiso, kunye neziteshi zihambelana nokuphumelela okanye ukungaphumeleli kweenkampani zokugcina amandla ebhetri.Ngo-2023, ukusebenza kweenkampani zebhetri yokugcina amandla kuye kwahluka, kwaye inzuzo yabo ikwimeko embi.

Ukusebenza kweenkampani zebhetri ezimelwe yiCATL, BYD kunye ne-EV Lithium Energy zonke zigcine ukukhula.Umzekelo, ngo-2023, iNingde Times iphumeze ingeniso yokusebenza iyonke ye-400.91 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ukonyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-22.01%, kunye nenzuzo yesambuku eyabalelwa kubanini-zabelo beenkampani ezidwelisiweyo yayiyi-44.121 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ukonyuka konyaka 43.58%.Phakathi kwazo, ingeniso yenkqubo yebhetri yokugcina amandla yenkampani yayiyi-59.9 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-33.17%, kubalelwa kwi-14.94% yengeniso iyonke.Ingeniso yengeniso yenkqubo yebhetri yokugcina amandla yenkampani yayingama-23.79%, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-6.78%.

Ngokwahlukileyo, ukusebenza kweenkampani ezifana neRuipu Lanjun kunye nePenghui Energy zibonakalisa umfanekiso owahlukileyo.

Phakathi kwabo, uRuipu Lanjun uqikelela ilahleko ye-1.8 yeebhiliyoni ukuya kwi-2 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngo-2023;I-Penghui Energy iqikelela ukuba inzuzo efunyenwe kubanini-zabelo beenkampani ezidwelisiweyo ngo-2023 iya kuba yi-58 yezigidi ukuya kwi-85 yezigidi zeeyuan, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka nge-86.47% ukuya kwi-90.77%.

Penghui Energy uthe: “Ngenxa yokuhla kabukhali kwixabiso eliphezulu izinto lithium carbonate, idityaniswe nokhuphiswano kwimarike, iyunithi yokuthengisa ixabiso lenkampani lithium ibhetri iimveliso lehle kakhulu, nto leyo eye yabekwa superimposed kwi destocking imiba yeenkampani ezantsi umlambo, ngaloo ndlela ichaphazela ingeniso kunye neengeniso;ukuthotywa kwamaxabiso emveliso nako Oku kukhokelele kwisixa esikhulu sezibonelelo zokuhla kwexabiso ezenziweyo ekupheleni kwexesha, nto leyo echaphazela ingeniso yenkampani.”

U-Long Zhiqiang uxelele iintatheli: “I-CATL yenza iinzame ezinkulu kwiimarike zasekhaya nezangaphandle.Umgangatho wayo, uphawu, itekhnoloji kunye nesikali azifani kushishino.Iimveliso zayo zinamandla e-premium, i-0.08-0.1 yuan / i-Wh ephezulu kunezo zoontanga bayo.Ukongeza, ukongeza, inkampani iye yandisa izixhobo zayo eziphezulu kwaye yatyikitya intsebenziswano kunye nabathengi abakhulu basekhaya nabangaphandle, nto leyo eyenza ukuba indawo yayo yentengiso ibe nzima ukuyishukumisa.Ngokwahlukileyo koko, amandla abanzi eenkampani zebhetri zenqanaba lesibini kunye nelesithathu kufuneka ziphuculwe ngakumbi.Kukho umsantsa omkhulu ngokwesikali sodwa, nto leyo eyenza ukuba iindleko zayo zibe ncinci kwaye nenzuzo yayo ibe buthathaka.

Ukhuphiswano lwentengiso lweBrutal luvavanya ukukhuphisana okubanzi kwamashishini.ULiu Jincheng, usihlalo weYiwei Lithium Energy, kutshanje uthe: “Ukwenza iibhetri zokugcina amandla ngokwemvelo kufuna ixesha elide kunye neemfuno eziphakamileyo zomgangatho ngokwawo.Abathengi abasezantsi baya kuqonda isidima kunye nokusebenza kwembali yeefektri zebhetri.Iifektri zebhetri sele zihluke kwi-2023. , i-2024 iya kuba yindawo yamanzi;ubume bezemali beefektri zebhetri nazo ziya kuba yingqwalasela ebalulekileyo kubathengi.Iinkampani ezithatha ngokumfamekileyo izicwangciso zexabiso eliphantsi ziyakufumana kunzima ukoyisa iinkampani ezikhokelayo ezinamanqanaba aphezulu emveliso.Ixabiso lomthamo ayilona dabi liphambili, kwaye alizinzile.”

Intatheli yaqaphela ukuba kwindawo yemarike yangoku, nangona inzuzo iqhubeka iphantsi koxinzelelo, iinkampani zokugcina amandla zisenokulindela okuhlukeneyo kwiinjongo zoshishino.

U-Liu Jincheng utyhile ukuba injongo yeshishini le-Yiwei Lithium Energy ngo-2024 kukulima kakhulu kwaye ubuyisele amasuntswana kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla, ngethemba lokuba yonke imveliso eyakhiweyo inokufikelela kwinzuzo.Phakathi kwabo, ngokubhekiselele kwiibhetri zokugcina amandla, siya kuzama ukuqhubela phambili ukuphucula umgangatho wokuhanjiswa kulo nyaka kunye nonyaka ozayo, kwaye ukususela kulo nyaka, siya kwandisa ngokuthe ngcembe ukuhanjiswa kwePack (ibhetri ipakethi) kunye nenkqubo.

U-Ruipu Lanjun wachaza ngaphambili ukuba ukholelwa ukuba inkampani inokuzuza inzuzo kwaye ivelise imali engenayo yokusebenza kwemali kwi-2025. Ngaphandle kokulungelelanisa amaxabiso emveliso, inkampani iya kufezekisa iinjongo zayo ngokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso, ukuphucula amandla ayo okuphendula ukuguquguquka kweendleko zempahla eluhlaza, ukwandisa ingeniso yeentengiso, kunye nokwenza uqoqosho lwesikali.