I-BP kunye ne-Statoil ziye zacima iikhontrakthi zokuthengisa umbane kwiiprojekthi ezinkulu zomoya we-offshore ukuya kwilizwe laseNew York, uphawu lokuba iindleko eziphezulu ziya kuqhubeka ziphazamisa ishishini.Kodwa asiyiyo yonke intshabalalo nobumnyama.Nangona kunjalo, umoya kuMbindi Mpuma, umthengisi ophambili weoli kunye negesi yendalo kwihlabathi, usemfiliba.Nalu ujongo olusondeleyo kwiintsingiselo ezintlanu ezivelayo kushishino lwamandla kunyaka ozayo.
1. Amaxabiso e-oyile kufuneka ahlale ezinzile nangona kuguquguquka
Imarike yeoli iye yaqala ngo-2024. I-Brent crude yahlala kwi-$ 78.25 umphanda, ukutsiba ngaphezu kwe-2 yeedola.Iziqhushumbisi eIran zibonisa ukungavisisani okuqhubekayo kuMbindi Mpuma.Ukungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo kwe-geopolitical - ngakumbi amandla okunyuka kwingxabano phakathi kwe-Israel kunye ne-Hamas - kuthetha ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada kuya kuqhubeka, kodwa abaninzi abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba i-bearish fundamentals iya kunciphisa ukuzuzwa kwexabiso.

Ngaphezulu koko kukunqongophala kwedatha yoqoqosho lwehlabathi.Imveliso yeoli yaseUnited States yayomelele ngendlela engalindelekanga, nto leyo eyanceda ukuba kugcinwe amaxabiso ephantsi.Okwangoku, ukulwa ngaphakathi kwe-OPEC +, njengokuhoxiswa kwe-Angola kwiqela lenyanga edlulileyo, kuye kwaphakamisa imibuzo malunga nokukwazi ukugcina ixabiso leoli ngokunciphisa imveliso.
Ulawulo lweNgcaciso yezaMandla e-US iprojekthi yamaxabiso e-oyile ukuya kumndilili omalunga ne-83 yeedola ngomphanda ngo-2024.
2. Kusenokubakho indawo eninzi yemisebenzi ye-M&A
Uthotho lwezivumelwano ezinkulu ze-oyile negesi zalandelwa ngo-2023: i-Exxon Mobil kunye ne-Pioneer Natural Resources ngeedola ezingama-60 eebhiliyoni, i-Chevron kunye ne-Hess ngeebhiliyoni ezingama-53 zeedola, isivumelwano se-Occidental Petroleum kunye ne-Krone- Rock sifikelela kwi-12 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Ukuncipha kokhuphiswano lwezixhobo zokusebenza - ngakumbi kwi-Permian Basin enemveliso ephezulu - kuthetha ukuba izivumelwano ezininzi zinokufikelelwa njengoko iinkampani zijonge ukuvala izixhobo zokomba.Kodwa ngeenkampani ezininzi ezinkulu esele zithatha inyathelo, ubungakanani bokuthengisa ngo-2024 bunokuba ncinci.
Phakathi kweenkampani ezinkulu zaseMelika, uConocoPhillips akakade ajoyine iqela.Amarhe axhaphakile okuba uShell kunye neBP banokudibana “kwishishini-seismic”, kodwa iCEO entsha yakwaShell uVail Savant unyanzelisa ukuba ukuthengwa kwezinto ezinkulu ayiyonto iphambili phakathi ngoku kunye no-2025.
3. Nangona kukho ubunzima, ukwakhiwa kwamandla ahlaziyiweyo kuya kuqhubeka
Iindleko eziphezulu zokuboleka, amaxabiso aphezulu ezinto eziluhlaza kunye nemingeni yokuvumela iya kubetha imboni yamandla avuselelekayo ngo-2024, kodwa ukusasazwa kweprojekthi kuya kuqhubeka nokuseta iirekhodi.
Ngokoqikelelo lwe-Arhente yezaMandla yeZizwe ngezizwe ngoJuni ka-2023, ngaphezulu kwe-460 GW yeeprojekthi zamandla ahlaziyekayo kulindeleke ukuba zifakwe kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2024, irekhodi ephezulu.I-US Energy Information Administration iqikelela ukuba ukuveliswa kwamandla omoya kunye nelanga kuya kudlula umbane owenziwe ngamalahle okokuqala ngo-2024.
Iiprojekthi zeSolar ziya kuqhuba ukukhula kwehlabathi, kunye nomthamo ofakiweyo wonyaka olindeleke ukukhula nge-7%, ngelixa umthamo omtsha ovela elunxwemeni kunye neeprojekthi zomoya we-offshore uya kuba ngaphantsi kancinane kunowama-2023. e-China, kwaye i-China kulindeleke ukuba iphendule kwi-55% yomthamo ofakiweyo wehlabathi weeprojekthi zamandla ahlaziyekayo amatsha ngo-2024.
I-2024 ikwajongwa "njengonyaka wokwenza okanye wokuqhawula" wamandla acocekileyo e-hydrogen.Ubuncinci amazwe alithoba abhengeze iinkqubo zenkxaso-mali ukunyusa imveliso yamafutha avelayo, ngokutsho kwe-S&P Global Commodities, kodwa iimpawu zokunyuka kweendleko kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka ishiye ishishini lingaqinisekanga.
4. Isantya sokubuya kweshishini lase-US siya kukhawuleza
Ukusukela oko yasayinwa ngo-2022, uMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lentengo uye wabangela ukuba i-United States ityale imali eninzi ekubhengezeni iifektri ezintsha zobuchwephesha obucocekileyo.Kodwa u-2024 sisihlandlo sokuqala ukuba siyakucacelwa ukuba iinkampani zinokufikelela njani kwiikhredithi zerhafu ezinengeniso ekuthiwa zisemthethweni, kwaye ingaba ulwakhiwo lwezo zityalo zibhengeziweyo ziya kuqala na.
La ngamaxesha anzima kwimveliso yaseMelika.Ukunyuka kwemveliso kuhambelana nemarike yabasebenzi engqongqo kunye neendleko eziphezulu zempahla ekrwada.Oku kunokukhokelela ekulibazisekeni kwemizi-mveliso kunye nenkcitho ephezulu kunento ebilindelwe.Ingaba iUnited States inokunyusa ulwakhiwo lweefektri zeteknoloji ezicocekileyo ngeendleko ezikhuphisanayo iya kuba ngumba ophambili ekuphunyezweni kwesicwangciso sokubuyiswa kwemizi-mveliso.
I-Deloitte Consulting iqikelela ukuba i-18 lemizi-mveliso yecandelo lamandla omoya ecwangcisiweyo izakuqalisa ukwakhiwa ngo-2024 njengentsebenziswano ethe kratya phakathi kwamazwe ase-East Coast kunye norhulumente womdibaniso ebonelela ngenkxaso kulwakhiwo lwamakhonkco onikezelo lwamandla omoya kude nonxweme.
UDeloitte uthi umthamo wemodyuli yelanga yase-US yasekhaya iya kuphinda kathathu kulo nyaka kwaye isendleleni yokuhlangabezana nemfuno ngasekupheleni kweminyaka elishumi.Nangona kunjalo, imveliso kwiindawo eziphezulu zekhonkco lokubonelela kuye kwacotha ukubamba.Izityalo zokuqala zase-US zokuvelisa iiseli zelanga, ii-wafers zelanga kunye nee-ingots zelanga kulindeleke ukuba zize kwi-intanethi kamva kulo nyaka.
5. I-United States iya komeleza ulawulo lwayo kwinkalo ye-LNG
Ngokoqikelelo lokuqala ngabahlalutyi, i-United States iya kudlula iQatar kunye ne-Australia ukuba ibe ngumvelisi omkhulu we-LNG wehlabathi ngo-2023. Idatha ye-Bloomberg ibonisa ukuba i-United States yathumela ngaphandle kwe-91 yezigidi zeetoni ze-LNG unyaka wonke.
Ngo-2024, iUnited States iya komeleza ulawulo lwayo kwimarike ye-LNG.Ukuba konke kuhambe kakuhle, amandla okuvelisa e-LNG e-US amalunga ne-11.5 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni zeeyubhiki ngemini aya kwandiswa ngeeprojekthi ezimbini ezitsha eziza kuqhutywa ngo-2024: enye iseTexas kunye nenye eLouisiana.Ngokwabahlalutyi be-Clear View Energy Partners, iiprojekthi ezintathu zifikelela kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo lesigqibo sotyalo-mali ngo-2023. Iiprojekthi ezininzi ezingaphezulu ezintandathu zinokuvunywa ngo-2024, kunye nomthamo odibeneyo we-6 yebhiliyoni ye-cubic feet ngosuku.