Ukudibanisa kunye nemeko yangoku yobuninzi kunye nokuncipha kwemfuno kwishishini le-photovoltaic kwi-2023, ezi ndlela zintathu zilandelayo zophuhliso ziya kwenziwa kwi-2024, ezichaphazela uphuhliso lwexesha elide loshishino lwe-photovoltaic:

1) Itekhnoloji ikhokela indlela kwaye ihamba ngemijikelo.I-bottom of the cycles yangaphambili ihambe kunye neenguqu ezinkulu kwi-teknoloji, kwaye inkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe ekugqibeleni inokuqonda umgaqo wokuqala wokunciphisa iindleko kunye nokwandisa ukusebenza kakuhle kwishishini le-photovoltaic;

2) Lixesha lokwandisa phesheya.Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokucotha kwemfuno yangaphakathi, iinkampani ngokuqinisekileyo ziya kufuna iindlela ezahlukeneyo zentengiso ukuphelisa umthamo ogqithisileyo wemveliso.Ukuba kukho amathuba okudibanisa, ukufunyanwa kunye nohlengahlengiso, banokukhawulezisa ukufezekiswa kwehlabathi jikelele;

3) Uphuhliso olukhulu lweenkqubo ezintsha zokuxhasa amandla kunye nezixhobo.Ukuqhwala kulwakhiwo lwesixokelelwano samandla kuchaphazele ngokunzulu izinga lokukhula komthamo osasaziweyo osasaziweyo, okukhokelela kwimfuno ehlayo.Uphuculo kulindeleke ukuba lukhawuleze kwiminyaka engama-24.Ngexesha elifanayo, ukugcinwa kwamandla, njengesibonelelo esibalulekileyo sokuxhasa, kulindeleke ukuba kuzuze kule nto.

1. I-Photovoltaic industry chain supply and demand analysis

1.1 Icala lomgaqo-nkqubo likhokela ngokusebenzayo uphuhliso oluphezulu lweshishini le-photovoltaic

Icala lomgaqo-nkqubo liphendula ngokusebenzayo ukuhla kwe-cyclical okubangelwa ukwanda ngokukhawuleza komthamo wemveliso ye-photovoltaic.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isantya se-IPO kunye nokuxhaswa ngokutsha kuya kuqiniswa kwizigaba zokulawula ukwanda ngokukhawuleza kwemboni ye-photovoltaic.Abanye abadlali abatsha kunye neenkampani ezinemali engonelanga ziya kuthintelwa ngokuthe ngqo.Isakhono se-hematopoietic yenkampani sibaluleke ngakumbi.Uxinzelelo lweshishini kulindeleke ukuba lonyuke kwaye umhlaba okhuphisanayo uya kwandiswa ngakumbi.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-symposium yoshishino lokuvelisa igxininise ekuphuhliseni umgangatho ophezulu we-photovoltaic industry, ukukhokela kunye nokuxhasa ukutsha kwe-teknoloji ye-technology kunye ne-rational layout ye-photovoltaic industry production capacity.

Ukongeza, imboni ye-photovoltaic yelizwe lam ixhomekeke kakhulu kwimarike yehlabathi.Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, isikali sothunyelo kumazwe angaphandle sibe sikhulu kunomlinganiselo wamacandelo afakwe ekhaya.Nangona kunjalo, umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wase-US kwiimveliso ze-photovoltaic ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zitshintshile rhoqo, ezifana nophando oluchasayo kunye nokuphunyezwa kwe-UFLPA.Ukusekwa kwemvumelwano kwintsebenziswano yophuhliso kuye kwathumela umqondiso omhle kwimveliso ye-photovoltaic yelizwe lam.

1.2 Ubonelelo: Inkampani yehlise isantya sokwandisa imveliso kwaye inemali eyaneleyo.

Inkampani inciphisa isantya sayo sokwandiswa kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe yongeza ulwakhiwo lwecala lonikezelo.Ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-Oriental Fortune, kwikota yokuqala neyesibini ye-2023, iinkampani ezingama-60 kwishishini le-photovoltaic ziqalise ukubuyisela imali ngekota engaphezulu kwe-100 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan.Phakathi kwazo, iinkampani ezidwelisiweyo ezingama-45 zinyuse i-115.8 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokukhutshwa okongeziweyo, kwaye iinkampani ezili-11 zikhuphe iibhondi eziguqukayo ukuze zinyuse i-yuan yeebhiliyoni ezingama-53.1.IYuan, izitokhwe ezi-3 ezitsha ezidwelisiweyo kwaye zanyusa i-4.659 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan;ngokwedatha evela kwi-Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2023, ukwandiswa kwesikali sokuvelisa i-silicon kuya kufikelela kwiitoni ezingama-760,000, isikali se-silicon wafers siya kufikelela kwi-442GW, kwaye isikali seeseli kunye namacandelo aya kufikelela kwi-1,100GW.Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ukuxhaswa ngemali kunye nokwandiswa kwemveliso yeenkampani ze-photovoltaic zazihamba ngokupheleleyo.

Nangona kunjalo, njengezinto ezinje ngokugqithiswa kancinci kancinci kwezixhobo ze-silicon, uxinzelelo olukhawulezileyo lwenzuzo engaphezulu kweeseli ze-TOPCon, ukuhla okuhla kweziko lenzuzo yetyathanga lemveliso, ukwehla kokukhula kwemfuno, kunye nokuqiniswa okuthe gqolo kwe-IPO kunye nokuxhaswa ngemali kwakhona, i-capital market yaqala ukuphola, kwaye imboni ye-photovoltaic ukususela kwikota yesithathu ibonise ukunyuka okucacileyo kokuphucula kwicala lokubonelela.Ngokomzekelo, kwikota yesithathu, inkxaso-mali yoshishino lwe-photovoltaic yayingaphantsi kwe-50 yeebhiliyoni ze-yuan;njenge-Q3, ngokujonga kwinkqubela phambili yeeprojekthi zokwandiswa kweshishini, onke amakhonkco kwikhonkco loshishino lwe-photovoltaic aye ancipha ukususela ngo-2023.Kulindeleke ukuba ukuzimisela kweshishini ngokubanzi ukwandisa imveliso kuya kwehla kakhulu kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2024.

1.3 Imfuno: Q4 Umthamo ofakelweyo wasekhaya unyuke kakhulu, ngelixa ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nesikali zombini zinqabile.

Kwiikota ezintathu zokuqala zowama-2023, umlinganiselo wokhuphiswano lwangaphakathi unyuke kakhulu unyaka nonyaka.Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-Gaisi Consulting, isikali semodyuli yasekhaya kwikota yesithathu yokuqala ye-2023 yayiyi-295.85GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-90%;imodyuli yokuphumelela ibhidi yesikali yayingama-463.50GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-219.3%, apho isikali semodyuli yasekhaya ngoSeptemba sasingama-56.2GW, ukonyuka kwenyanga nenyanga ngama-50.7%, kwaye isikali sokuphumelela imodyuli sasingama-39.1 GW, ukuhla kwenyanga-ngenyanga ye-35.8%.

Imfuno yecandelo kulindeleke ukuba yehle kwikota yesine, kunye nokuthengwa kwecandelo le-N kubalwa ngaphezu kwesiqingatha.Ngokwedatha ye-SMM, ukulinganiswa kwemodyuli yohlobo lwe-N kubonise ukukhula okugqabhukileyo ukusuka ngoSeptemba ukuya ku-Okthobha ka-2023, kunye nesikali sokulinganisa esidlula i-20GW.Phakathi kwazo, imodyuli yokuthengwa kwempahla ngo-Okthobha yayiyi-22.91GW, kwaye icandelo lokuthengwa kwemodyuli ye-N yayingama-53%.Ngenxa yenzuzo yokuqala yokuhambisa itekhnoloji ye-TOPCon, ithathe ngaphezulu kwe-70% yesabelo esipheleleyo kwibhidi kunye nokuthengwa okuphakathi kwamanye amashishini aphakathi kunye nakarhulumente, ebonisa ukuba indlela yeebhetri zohlobo lwe-N ezithatha indawo ye-P- uhlobo lweebhetri ngokuthe ngcembe zithatha imilo.Njengoko amaxabiso kwi-industry chain chain aqhubeka ehla, imfuno yemodyuli kulindeleke ukuba ibe ngaphantsi kunokuba ilindeleke kwikota yesine, kunye ne-inventory digestion iyona nto iphambili, kodwa iimodyuli zohlobo lwe-N ziya kuqhubeka zijonga umlinganiselo ophezulu.

Umthamo omtsha ofakwe kwindawo ephakathi kulindeleke ukuba ugcine ukukhula kwikota yesine.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha ka-2023, amandla elizwe lam asanda kufakwa kwi-photovoltaic yayiyi-142.6GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-145%.Phakathi kwabo, umthamo osanda kufakwa ngo-Okthobha wawuyi-13.6GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-142%, kunye nokuncipha kwenyanga nge-14%.Isizathu sokuhla sinokuba yimpembelelo yeeholide.Ngokwembono yesakhiwo somthamo ofakiweyo, umthamo ofakiweyo osasaziweyo udlule kwi-50% ngo-2023, kunye nomthamo ofakelweyo ofakwe kwindawo esembindini unyuke ngokukhawuleza unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwabo, i-Q3 yasasazwa amandla afakiweyo yi-26.2GW, i-akhawunti ye-51.8%, kunye nomthamo ofakwe kwindawo ephakathi yayiyi-24.3GW, ibalwa kwi-48.2%.Njengoko amaxabiso kumakhonkco ahlukeneyo kwikhonkco loshishino eqhubeka nokuhla kutshanje, umthamo ofakwe kwindawo ephakathi kulindeleke ukuba ugcine ukukhula ukusuka ngoNovemba ukuya kuDisemba.

Ukuthengiswa kwemveliso ye-Photovoltaic zombini kuncipha kwixabiso kunye nesikali ngo-Oktobha.Ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha ka-2023, ixabiso lelizwe lam elongezelekayo lokuthumela ngaphandle kweemveliso ze-photovoltaic (iintonga ze-silicon, ii-silicon wafers, iiseli, iimodyuli) ibiyi-US$43.766 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka nge-2.6%.Phakathi kwazo, ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle ngo-Okthobha liphelele kwi-US $ 3.094 yezigidigidi, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-24.7%.Ukwehla kwenyanga nenyanga kube yi-19.2%, elona lisezantsi kwinyanga enye kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo.Esona sizathu siphambili kukuba isiseko esiphakamileyo kunyaka ophelileyo sakhokelela kuxinzelelo olukhulu lokuncipha kwempahla kwezinye iindawo.

Ngokwedatha ye-InfoLink, isikali semodyuli eyongezelekayo yelizwe lam yokuthumela ngaphandle ukusuka kuJanuwari ukuya kuOkthobha wama-2023 yayiyi-174.1 GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-30.6%.Phakathi kwabo, imodyuli yokuthumela ngaphandle kwemodyuli ngo-Okthobha yayiyi-16.5 GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-39.8%, kunye nokuhla kwenyanga nge-16.7%.Kwiinyanga ezimbini zokugqibela zalo nyaka, ngenxa yeeholide zamazwe angaphandle kunye noxinzelelo lwe-inventory, kulindeleke ukuba zombini umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nesikali ziya kuhla.

Isixa esikhulu seempahla ezitsalwa kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka sinokukhokelela ekunciphiseni kwemfuno kwimarike yaseYurophu kwikota yesine.Ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha wama-2023, amazwe amahlanu aphezulu kumthamo wecandelo lelizwe lam lokuthumela ngaphandle yiNetherlands, Brazil, Spain, India, and Saudi Arabia.Phakathi kwabo, umthamo wokuthumela kumazwe anje ngeSaudi Arabia kunye neBelgium unyuke kakhulu unyaka nonyaka.Imarike yaseYurophu okwangoku lelinye lawona mazwe abaluleke kakhulu ekuthunyelweni kwemveliso yephotovoltaic yelizwe lam.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Oktobha, iYurophu ingenisa i-91.6GW yeemodyuli ze-photovoltaic, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-22.6%.Phakathi kwabo, i-China yathumela ngaphandle kwe-6.2GW yeemodyuli ze-photovoltaic zaseYurophu ngo-Oktobha, ukuhla konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-10%.Ukuhla nge-18% kubangelwa ikakhulu kukuqokelelwa kwempahla okubangelwa zizixa ezikhulu zeempahla kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka.Kulindeleke ukuba imfuno epheleleyo eYurophu iya kuhla kakhulu kwikota yesine yesiqhelo sonyaka.

Ngo-2023, izinga lokukhula komthamo omtsha ofakwe kwihlabathi kunye ne-China kulindeleke ukuba libethe phezulu, kwaye izinga lokukhula lilindeleke ukuba lihle kakhulu kwiminyaka eyi-24-25.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha kulo nyaka, amandla elizwe lam asanda kufakelwa i-photovoltaic afikelele kwi-142.56GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-144.78%.Phakathi kwabo, amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa ngo-Oktobha yayiyi-13.62GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-141.49%.