Ho kopantsoe le boemo ba hona joale ba ho ba le matla a mangata le ho fokotseha ha tlhokahalo ea indasteri ea photovoltaic ka 2023, litsela tse tharo tse latelang tsa tsoelo-pele li tla thehoa ka 2024, tse amang tsoelo-pele ea nako e telele ea indasteri ea photovoltaic:

1) Theknoloji e etella pele tsela le ho feta ka lipotoloho.Botlaaseng ba lipotoloho tse fetileng bo 'nile ba tsamaea le liphetoho tse kholo tsa theknoloji,' me tsoelo-pele ea theknoloji e ka qetella e hlokomela molao-motheo oa pele oa ho fokotsa litšenyehelo le ho eketsa katleho indastering ea photovoltaic;

2) Ke nako ea ho atolosa mose ho maoatle.Khahlanong le semelo sa ho fokotseha ha tlhoko ea lehae, ka sebele lik'hamphani li tla batla mecha e fapaneng ea mebaraka ho felisa tlhahiso e feteletseng.Haeba ho na le menyetla ea ho kopanya, ho fumana le ho hlophisa bocha, ho ka boela ha potlakisa ho phethahala ha ho ikopanya ha lichaba tsa lefatše;

3) Nts'etsopele e kholo ea lits'ebetso le lisebelisoa tse ncha tse tšehetsang matla.Ho lieha ha kaho ea sistimi ea motlakase ho amme sekhahla sa kholo ea matla a kentsoeng, e lebisang tlhokehong e tlase.Ntlafatso e lebelletsoe ho potlakisa ka mor'a lilemo tse 24.Ka nako e ts'oanang, polokelo ea matla, e le setsi sa bohlokoa sa tšehetso, le eona e lebelletsoe ho rua molemo ho sena.

1. Phepelo ea ketane ea indasteri ea Photovoltaic le tlhahlobo ea tlhokahalo

1.1 Lehlakore la pholisi le tataisa ka mafolofolo ntlafatso ea boleng bo phahameng ba indasteri ea photovoltaic

Lehlakore la pholisi le arabela ka mafolofolo ho fokotseha ha cyclical ho bakoang ke ho atolosoa ka potlako ha matla a tlhahiso ea photovoltaic.Ka lehlakoreng le leng, lebelo la IPO le refinancing li tla tiisoa ka mekhahlelo ho laola katoloso e potlakileng ea indasteri ea photovoltaic.Libapali tse ling tse ncha le lik'hamphani tse nang le chelete e sa lekaneng li tla thibeloa ka kotloloho.Bokhoni ba k'hamphani ka boeona ba hematopoietic bo bohlokoa haholo.Ho lebelletsoe hore maemo a indasteri a eketsehe mme maemo a tlholisano a tla ntlafatsoa le ho feta.Ka lehlakoreng le leng, simposiamo ea khoebo ea tlhahiso e lebisitse tlhokomelo ho nts'etsopele ea boleng bo phahameng ba indasteri ea photovoltaic, ho tataisa le ho tšehetsa mekhoa e mecha ea theknoloji ea khoebo le mokhoa o utloahalang oa bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea indasteri ea photovoltaic.

Ho phaella moo, indasteri ea photovoltaic ea naha ea heso e itšetlehile haholo ka 'maraka oa lefatše lohle.Lilemong tsa morao tjena, sekala sa thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha se bile seholo ho feta sekala sa lisebelisoa tse kentsoeng lapeng.Leha ho le joalo, leano la US la litefiso tsa lihlahisoa tsa photovoltaic tse tsoang linaheng tse ling li fetohile hangata, tse kang lipatlisiso tse khahlanong le ho potoloha le ho kenya ts'ebetsong ea UFLPA.Ho theoa ha tumellano mabapi le tšebelisano-'moho ea nts'etsopele ho rometse pontšo e ntle ho thomello ea thepa ea photovoltaic ea naha ea heso.

1.2 Phepelo: Khampani e theotse lebelo la eona la keketseho ea tlhahiso mme e na le chelete e lekaneng ea chelete.

Khampani e fokotsa lebelo la eona la katoloso mme butle-butle e ntlafatsa sebopeho sa eona sa phepelo.Ho ea ka lintlha tse tsoang ho Oriental Fortune, karolong ea pele le ea bobeli ea 2023, lik'hamphani tse 60 tsa indasteri ea photovoltaic li qalile ho nchafatsa chelete ka karolelano ea kotara ea li-yuan tse fetang limilione tse likete tse 100.Har'a tsona, lik'hamphani tse 45 tse thathamisitsoeng li phahamisitse li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 115.8 ka likhatiso tse ling, 'me lik'hamphani tse 11 li ile tsa fana ka li-bond tse fetolehang ho phahamisa li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 53.1.Yuan, li-stock tse 3 tse ncha tse thathamisitsoeng le ho phahamisa li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 4.659;ho ea ka lintlha tse tsoang ho Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, halofo ea pele ea 2023, ho atolosoa ha lihlahisoa tsa silicon ho tla fihla lithane tse 760,000, tekanyo ea liphaephe tsa silicon e tla fihla ho 442GW, 'me tekanyo ea lisele le likarolo li tla fihla ho 1,100GW.Karolong ea pele ea selemo, lichelete le katoloso ea tlhahiso ea lik'hamphani tsa photovoltaic li ne li ntse li tsoela pele.

Leha ho le joalo, joalo ka lintlha tse joalo ka tlatsetso ea butle-butle ea thepa ea silicon, khatello e potlakileng ea phaello e feteletseng ea lisele tsa TOPCon, phetoho e tlase ea setsi sa phaello sa ketane ea indasteri, ho fokotseha ha kholo ea tlhokeho, le ho tiisa ha IPO ka mekhahlelo le ho nchafatsa chelete, 'maraka oa lichelete o ile oa qala ho pholile,' me indasteri ea photovoltaic e se e le kotara ea boraro e bontšitse mokhoa o ntseng o eketseha oa ntlafatso ka lehlakoreng la phepelo.Ka mohlala, karolong ea boraro, lichelete tsa indasteri ea photovoltaic li ne li le ka tlaase ho li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 50;joalo ka Q3, ho latela tsoelo-pele ea sebele ea merero ea ho atolosa indasteri e phatlalalitsoeng, lihokelo tsohle tsa ketane ea indasteri ea photovoltaic li fokotsehile ho tloha 2023. Tsoelo-pele ea merero e meng e fihlang tlhahiso e lieha haholo ho feta kamoo ho neng ho lebeletsoe kateng.Ho lebelletsoe hore boikemisetso ba indasteri ka kakaretso ba ho holisa tlhahiso bo tla fokotseha haholo halofo ea pele ea 2024.

1.3 Tlhokahalo: Q4 Bokhoni bo kentsoeng ka lapeng bo eketsehile haholo, ha boleng ba thomello le sekala ka bobeli bo theohile.

Likarolong tse tharo tsa pele tsa 2023, tekanyo ea litefiso tsa lehae e ile ea eketseha haholo selemo le selemo.Ho ea ka lintlha tsa Gaisi Consulting, tekanyo ea lichelete tsa mojule oa malapeng likarolong tse tharo tsa pele tsa 2023 e ne e le 295.85GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 90%;sekala se hapileng mojule se ne se le 463.50GW, e leng keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 219.3%, eo sekala sa ho fana ka mojule oa lehae ka Loetse e ne e le 56.2GW, keketseho ea khoeli le khoeli ea 50.7%, mme sekala sa ho hapa mojule e ne e le 39.1 GW, ho fokotseha ha khoeli le khoeli ho 35.8%.

Tlhokahalo ea karolo e lebelletsoe ho theoha kotareng ea bone, 'me karolo ea N e ikarabellang bakeng sa ho feta halofo.Ho latela lintlha tsa SMM, tlhahlobo ea mojule oa N-motho e bonts'itse kholo e matla ho tloha Loetse ho isa Mphalane 2023, 'me sekala sa calibration se feta 20GW.Har'a tsona, karolo ea phumants'o ea module ka Mphalane e ne e le 22.91GW, 'me karolo ea mofuta oa N-procurement proportion e ne e le 53%.Ka lebaka la monyetla oa pele oa ho tsamaisa theknoloji ea TOPCon, e nkile karolo e fetang 70% ea karolo e felletseng molemong oa ho reka le ho reka ka har'a likhoebo tse ling tse bohareng le tsa mmuso, ho bonts'a hore mokhoa oa libeteri tsa mofuta oa N o nka sebaka sa P- mofuta oa libeteri butle-butle li nka sebopeho.Ha litheko tsa ketane ea indasteri li ntse li fokotseha, tlhoko ea module e lebelletsoe ho ba tlase ho feta kamoo ho neng ho lebelletsoe karolong ea bone, 'me tšilo ea lihlahisoa e le eona ntho ea pele, empa li-module tsa mofuta oa N li ntse li tla ikarabella bakeng sa karolo e phahameng.

Bokhoni bo bocha bo kentsoeng bohareng bo lebelletsoe ho boloka kholo kotareng ea bone.Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Mphalane 2023, matla a photovoltaic a naha ea heso a sa tsoa kenngoa e ne e le 142.6GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 145%.Har'a bona, matla a sa tsoa kenngoa ka October e ne e le 13.6GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 142%, le ho fokotseha ha khoeli le khoeli ea 14%.Lebaka la ho fokotseha e ka 'na ea e-ba phello ea matsatsi a phomolo.Ho latela pono ea sebopeho sa bokhoni bo kentsoeng, matla a kentsoeng a pharalletseng a feta 50% ka 2023, mme matla a kentsoeng bohareng a eketseha ka potlako selemo le selemo.Har'a bona, matla a kenyelletsoeng a Q3 e ne e le 26.2GW, e ikarabellang bakeng sa 51.8%, 'me matla a kentsoeng bohareng e ne e le 24.3GW, e ikarabellang bakeng sa 48.2%.Ha litheko tsa likhokahano tse fapaneng tsa ketane ea liindasteri li ntse li theoha morao tjena, bokhoni bo kentsoeng bohareng bo lebelletsoe ho boloka kholo ho tloha ka Pulungoana ho fihlela ka Tšitoe.

Li-export tsa lihlahisoa tsa photovoltaic ka bobeli li ile tsa fokotseha ka boleng le tekanyo ka October.Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Mphalane 2023, boleng ba naha ea heso bo kopantseng kantle ho naha ea lihlahisoa tsa photovoltaic (lithupa tsa silicon, li-wafers tsa silicon, lisele, li-module) e ne e le $43.766 bilione, phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 2.6%.Har'a tsona, boleng ba kantle ho naha ka Mphalane bo fihlile ho US $ 3.094 bilione, phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 24.7%.Phokotso ea khoeli le khoeli e bile 19.2%, e tlase ka ho fetisisa khoeling e le 'ngoe lilemong tse peli tse fetileng.Lebaka le ka sehloohong e ne e le hore setsi se phahameng selemong se fetileng se lebisitse khatellong e kholo ea ho fokotseha libakeng tse ling.

Ho latela lintlha tsa InfoLink, sekala sa naha ea heso sa koketso ea thepa ea kantle ho naha ho tloha Pherekhong ho isa Mphalane 2023 e ne e le 174.1 GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 30.6%.Har'a tsona, tekanyo ea thepa ea thepa ka Mphalane e ne e le 16.5 GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 39.8%, le phokotso ea khoeli le khoeli ea 16.7%.Likhoeling tse peli tse fetileng tsa selemo sena, ka lebaka la matsatsi a phomolo a kantle ho naha le khatello ea thepa, ho lebeletsoe hore boholo ba thepa e tsoang kantle le tekanyo e tla fokotseha.

Palo e kholo ea thepa e huloang halofo ea pele ea selemo e ka lebisa ho fokotseha ha tlhokahalo marakeng oa Europe karolong ea bone.Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Mphalane 2023, linaha tse hlano tse holimo ka ho fetisisa karolong ea naha ea heso ea thomello ea thepa ke Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, India le Saudi Arabia.Har'a tsona, palo ea linaha tse kang Saudi Arabia le Belgium e eketsehile haholo selemo le selemo.'Maraka oa Europe hajoale ke e' ngoe ea linaha tsa bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa bakeng sa thepa ea photovoltaic ea naha ea heso.Ho tloha ka January ho ea ho October, Europe e ile ea kenya kakaretso ea 91.6GW ea photovoltaic modules, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 22,6%.Har'a bona, Chaena e ile ea romela 6.2GW ea li-module tsa photovoltaic tsa Europe ka October, ho fokotseha ha selemo le selemo ka 10%.Phokotso ea 18% e bakoa haholo-holo ke ho bokelloa ha thepa e bakiloeng ke thepa e ngata halofong ea pele ea selemo sena.Ho lebelletsoe hore tlhokahalo e akaretsang Europe e tla theoha haholo kotara ea bone ea nako e seng e sa sebetse.

Ka 2023, sekhahla sa kholo ea matla a macha a kentsoeng lefats'eng le China e lebelletsoe ho fihla holimo, mme sekhahla sa kholo se lebelletsoe ho theoha haholo lilemong tse 24-25.Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Mphalane selemong sena, matla a naha ea heso a sa tsoa kenngoa a fihlile ho 142.56GW, e leng keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 144.78%.Har'a bona, matla a photovoltaic a sa tsoa kenngoa ka October e ne e le 13.62GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 141.49%.