Nguva pfupi yadarika, sangano repasi rose rekubvunzana SNE Tsvagiridzo yakaburitsa pasi rose rekuchengetedza bhatiri data rekutumira muna 2023 uye yepasi rose simba rekuchengetedza lithium bhatiri kambani yekutumira rondedzero, inokwezva kutarisisa kwemusika.

Iro data rakakodzera rinoratidza kuti pasi rose simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri rekutakura rakasvika 185GWh gore rapfuura, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kweanosvika 53%.Tichitarisa kune gumi epamusoro epasi rose ekuchengetedza simba rekutakura bhatiri muna 2023, makambani eChinese anogara zvigaro zvisere, achiverengera makumi mapfumbamwe muzana ezvakatumirwa.Zvichipesana nekumashure kwekuwanda kwenguva nenguva, kudzikiswa kwemitengo mumidziyo yekumusoro inofambiswa, hondo dzemitengo dzakanyanya dzinowedzera, uye kuwanda kwemusika webhatiri rekuchengetedza simba kunowedzera.CATL chete (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), uye Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 .SZ), Ruipu Lanjun (0666.HK), neHaichen Energy Storage, chikamu chemusika chemakambani mashanu ari kutungamira chinodarika 75%. .

Mumakore maviri apfuura, musika wekuchengetedza bhatiri remagetsi wakachinja kamwe kamwe.Izvo zvaimboonekwa sekuderera kwekukosha kwairwiwa ikozvino kwave gungwa dzvuku rekukwikwidza kwemitengo yakaderera, nemakambani anoda kukwikwidza mugove wemusika wepasi rose nemitengo yakaderera.Nekudaro, nekuda kwekusaenzana kwekudzora mutengo kugona kwemakambani akasiyana, kuita kwesimba rekuchengetedza bhatiri makambani muna 2023 kuchasiyaniswa.Mamwe makambani akawana kukura, nepo mamwe akawira mukuderera kana kurasikirwa.Kubva pamaonero eindastiri, 2024 richave rakakosha mvura uye gore rakakosha kusimudzira kupona kweakasimba uye kugadzirisa patani yemusika wekuchengetedza bhatiri remagetsi.

Long Zhiqiang, muongorori mukuru weXinchen Information, akadaro mubvunzurudzo nemutori wenhau kubva kuChina Bhizinesi Nhau kuti makambani ekuchengetedza magetsi ebhatiri ari kuita purofiti shoma kana kutorasikirwa nemari.Nekuti makambani ekutanga-tier ane akasimba akazara emakwikwi uye zvigadzirwa zvawo zvine premium kugona, yechipiri-nechitatu-tier makambani anonyanya kubatanidzwa mukati mechigadzirwa makotesheni, saka kuita kwavo pundutso kunosiyana.

Cost pressure

Muna 2023, nekukura kwesimba idzva rakaiswa simba uye kudonha kwemutengo wepamusoro pembishi yelithium carbonate, musika wepasi rose wekuchengetedza simba uchakura nekukurumidza, nekudaro uchiwedzera kudiwa kwemabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba.Nekudaro, pamwe neizvi, simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri rekugadzira simba rapinda munguva yekuwedzera nekuda kwekukurumidza kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwevatambi vatsva nevakuru.

Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kweInfoLink Consulting, kugadzirwa kwemabhatiri epasi rose kuchave pedyo ne3,400GWh muna 2024, ayo maseru ekuchengetedza simba anoita 22%, anosvika 750GWh.Panguva imwecheteyo, simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri sero kutakura richakura ne35% muna 2024, richisvika 266GWh.Zvinogona kuonekwa kuti kudiwa uye kugovera kwemasero ekuchengetedza simba zvakakomba zvisingaenderani.

Long Zhiqiang akaudza vatori venhau kuti: "Parizvino, simba rose rekuchengetedza sero rekugadzira rasvika 500GWh, asi chinodiwa chaicho cheindasitiri gore rino ndechekuti zvakaoma kusvika 300GWh.Muchiitiko ichi, simba rekugadzira rinopfuura 200GWh harina basa. "

Kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwesimba rekugadzira remagetsi ekuchengetedza bhatiri makambani mhedzisiro yezvakawanda zvinhu.Mumamiriro ezvinhu ekumhanyira kune kusarerekera kabhoni, iyo indasitiri yekuchengetedza simba yakakwira nekukurumidza nekuvandudzwa kwemusika mutsva wekugadzira magetsi.Vatambi vanoyambuka muganhu vari kupinda mukati, vachimhanyira kuita uye kugovera, uye vose vanoda kuwana chidimbu chepai.Panguva imwecheteyo, dzimwe hurumende dzemunharaunda dzakatorawo indasitiri yebhatiri yelithium seyakatarisana nekusimudzira mari, kukwezva makambani ekuchengetedza magetsi ebhatiri kuburikidza nerubatsiro, mitemo yakasarudzika, nezvimwe kutsigira kuitwa kwemapurojekiti.Pamusoro pezvo, nerubatsiro rwemari, makambani ekuchengetedza magetsi ebhatiri akawedzera kukurumidza kukurumidza kwekuwedzera nekuwedzera kutsvagisa nekusimudzira kuedza, kuwedzera kugona kwekugadzira, nekuvandudza chiteshi kuvaka.

Kutarisana nemamiriro ekugadzirisa nguva, mutengo wose weketani yekuchengetedza simba rekuchengetedza simba yakaratidza kuderera kubva muna 2023. Sezvo hondo yemitengo pamusoro pe lithium carbonate mitengo inowedzera, mutengo wemasero ekuchengetedza simba wakadererawo kubva pasi pasi pe1. yuan/Wh pakutanga kwa2023 kusvika pasi pe0.35 yuan/Wh.Kudonha kwakakura zvokuti kunogona kunzi "kutema-mabvi".

Long Zhiqiang akaudza vatori venhau kuti: “Muna 2024, mutengo welithium carbonate wakaratidza kumwe kushanduka uye kukwira, asi kuderera kwemitengo yesero rebhatiri hakuna kuchinja zvakanyanya.Parizvino, mutengo wesero webhatiri wadzikira kusvika pa 0.35 yuan/Wh, izvo zvinoda kuve zvichienderana nezvinhu zvakaita sehuwandu hwekurongeka, mamiriro ekushandisa, uye kusimba kwakazara kwemakambani emagetsi ebhatiri, mutengo wemakambani ega ega unogona kusvika padanho. ye0.4 yuan/Wh.

Zvinoenderana nekuverenga neShanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), iyo iripo theoretical mutengo we280Ah lithium iron phosphate simba rekuchengetedza sero ingangoita 0.34 yuan/Wh.Zviripachena, magetsi ekuchengetedza bhatiri mafekitori ari kutotenderera pamutsetse wemutengo.

“Parizvino musika wawandisa uye kudiwa hakuna kusimba.Makambani ari kuderedza mitengo kuti atore misika, kusanganisira mamwe makambani kubvisa zvinhu nemitengo yakaderera, izvo zvawedzera kuderera kwemitengo.Pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu aya, makambani ekuchengetera magetsi ebhatiri ave kutoita purofiti diki kana kutorasikirwa nemari.Kuenzaniswa neEkutanga-mutsara maBhizinesi, makotesheni echigadzirwa emabhizinesi echipiri-nechitatu-tier anowedzera. "Long Zhiqiang akadaro.

Long Zhiqiang akatiwo: "Indasitiri yekuchengetera magetsi ichakurumidza kudzokororwa muna 2024, uye makambani ekuchengetedza simba ebhatiri acharatidza mamiriro akasiyana ekupona.Kubva gore rapfuura, indasitiri yakaona kuvharika kwekugadzira uye kunyangwe kudzingwa.Chiyero chekushanda chakaderera, simba rekugadzira harina basa, uye zvigadzirwa Zvinogona't inotengeswa, saka inotakura kumanikidzwa kushanda.”

Zhongguancun Energy Storage Indasitiri Tekinoroji Alliance inotenda kuti pasi peiyo indasitiri yekuchengetera simba yakatemwa, asi zvicharamba zvichitora nguva kujekesa huwandu hwekugadzira uye kugaya hesitori.Kudzoreredza kuri pachena kwemaindasitiri purofiti kunoenderana nekuwedzera kwekuda uye nekumhanyisa kwekugadzirisa uye kugadzirisa padivi rekupa.InfoLink Consulting yakambofanotaura kuti dambudziko rekuwandisa kwemasero ebheteri richadzika pasi muchikamu chekutanga che2024. Yakabatanidzwa nekufungisisa mari yezvinhu, mutengo wemasero ekuchengetedza simba uchange uine nzvimbo shoma yakaderera munguva pfupi.

Kusiyanisa purofiti

Parizvino, makambani e-lithium bhatiri anonyanya kufamba pamakumbo maviri: mabhatiri emagetsi uye mabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba.Kunyangwe kuendeswa kwesimba rekuchengetedza kwakanonoka zvishoma, makambani akaiisa munzvimbo ine mukurumbira.

Semuyenzaniso, CATL ndiyo "mbiri shasha" maererano nekutumira mabhatiri emagetsi uye mabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba.Yakamboona nzvimbo nhatu dzakakosha: "electrochemical energy storage + renewable energy generation", "mabhatiri emagetsi uye motokari itsva dzemagetsi" uye "electrification + intelligence".Grand Strategic development direction.Mumakore maviri apfuura, iyo kambani simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri chiyero uye mari yakaramba ichikura, uye yakawedzera kuwedzera kune simba rekuchengetedza system yekubatanidza link.BYD yakapinda munzvimbo yekuchengetera simba kare muna 2008 uye yakapinda mhiri kwemakungwa misika kutanga.Parizvino, bhatiri rekuchengetedza simba rekambani uye mabhizinesi ehurongwa anomira mune yekutanga echelon.Muna Zvita 2023, BYD yakawedzera kusimbisa simba rayo rekuchengetedza simba uye yakashandura zviri pamutemo zita reShenzhen Pingshan Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. kuita Shenzhen BYD Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

Senyeredzi iri kusimukira mumunda wemabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba, Haichen Energy Storage yakatarisana neindasitiri yekuchengetedza simba kubva payakavambwa muna 2019 uye yakaratidza kusimudzira kwakasimba.Yakaisa pakati pemabhatiri epamusoro mashanu ekuchengetedza simba mumakore mana chete.Muna 2023, Haichen Energy Storage yakatanga zviri pamutemo maitiro eIPO.

Pamusoro pezvo, Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) iri kuitawo zano rekuchengetedza simba, iro“inoronga kuwana kukura kweanopfuura makumi mashanu muzana mumakore matatu kusvika mashanu anotevera, inodarika mabhiriyoni makumi matatu emari, uye kuve mupi anodiwa muindasitiri yekuchengetedza simba.”Muna 2022, mari yebhizinesi rekuchengetedza simba rekambani ichaita 54% yemari yakazara.

Nhasi, munzvimbo ine makwikwi anotyisa, zvinhu zvakaita senge pesvedzero yemhando, mari, mhando yechigadzirwa, chiyero, mutengo, uye chiteshi zvine chekuita nekubudirira kana kutadza kwemakambani ekuchengetedza simba ebhatiri.Muna 2023, kuita kwemakambani ekuchengetedza simba ebhatiri kwakasiyana, uye purofiti yavo iri mumatambudziko.

Kuita kwemakambani ebhatiri anomiririrwa neCATL, BYD uye EV Lithium Energy ese akachengetedza kukura.Semuenzaniso, muna 2023, Ningde Times yakawana mari yekushandisa inosvika 400.91 bhiriyoni yuan, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe22.01%, uye purofiti yakaitwa nevanogovana vemakambani akanyorwa yaive 44.121 bhiriyoni yuan, kuwedzera kwegore-pa-gore 43.58%.Pakati pavo, iyo kambani simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri system mari yaive 59.9 bhiriyoni yuan, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe33.17%, inoverengera 14.94% yemari yakazara.Iyo gross profit margin yekambani simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri system yaive 23.79%, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe6.78%.

Kusiyana neizvi, kuita kwemakambani akadai saRuipu Lanjun nePenghui Energy kunopa mufananidzo wakasiyana.

Pakati pavo, Ruipu Lanjun anofanotaura kurasikirwa kwe1.8 bhiriyoni kusvika ku2 bhiriyoni yuan muna 2023;Penghui Energy inofanotaura kuti mambure emubairo anowanikwa kune vanogova vemakambani akanyorwa muna 2023 ichave 58 miriyoni kusvika 85 miriyoni yuan, gore negore kuderera kwe86.47% kusvika 90.77%.

Penghui Energy yakati: "Nekuda kwekudonha kwakanyanya kwemutengo wezvinhu zviri kumusoro zvinoputika lithium carbonate, pamwe nemakwikwi emusika, mutengo wekutengesa wekambani yelithium bhatiri zvigadzirwa wakadzikira zvakanyanya, izvo zvave zvakaiswa pamusoro pezvinhu zvekudzikisira kwemakambani ezasi. nokudaro kukanganisa mari nepurofiti;kudzikiswa kwemutengo wechigadzirwa zvakare Izvi zvakakonzera kuwanda kwezvisungo zvekudzikira kwechigadzirwa pakupera kwenguva, zvichikanganisa kuita kwekambani. "

Long Zhiqiang akaudza vatori venhau kuti: “CATL iri kuedza zvikuru mumisika yemumba neyekunze.Hunhu hwayo, mhando, tekinoroji uye chiyero hazvienzaniswi muindasitiri.Zvigadzirwa zvaro zvine premium kugona, 0.08-0.1 yuan / Wh yakakwirira kupfuura yevamwe vezera rayo.Uye zvakare, iyo kambani yakawedzera zviwanikwa zvayo kumusoro uye yakasaina kubatana nevatengi vepamba uye vekunze, izvo zvinoita kuti nzvimbo yayo yemusika inonetsa kuzununguka.Kusiyana neizvi, simba rakazara rechipiri-uye rechitatu-tier simba rekuchengetedza bhatiri makambani anoda kuwedzera kuvandudzwa.Pane mukaha mukuru maererano nechiyero chega, izvo zvinoitawo kuti mutengo waro usanyanya kubatsira uye pundutso yaro ive shoma. "

Makwikwi eBrutal musika anoedza kukwikwidza kwakazara kwemabhizinesi.Liu Jincheng, sachigaro weYiwei Lithium Energy, akati nguva pfupi yadarika: “Kugadzira mabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba zvega kunoda nguva refu uye zvinodiwa zvemhando yepamusoro pachazvo.Vatengi vepasi vanonzwisisa mukurumbira uye nhoroondo yekushanda kwemafekitori ebhatiri.Mafekitori ebhatiri akatosiyaniswa muna 2023. , 2024 ichava mvura;mamiriro emari emafekitari ebhatiri anozovawo chinhu chakakosha kufunga nezvevatengi.Makambani anotora neupofu mazano emitengo yakaderera anozoona zvakaoma kukunda makambani anotungamira ane mazinga epamusoro ekugadzira.Mutengo wevhoriyamu hausi iwo nhandare huru yehondo, uye haigoneki.”

Mutori wenhau akacherechedza kuti mumamiriro ezvinhu emusika aripo, kunyange zvazvo purofiti inoramba ichimanikidzwa, makambani ekuchengetedza simba achiri netarisiro yakasiyana yezvinangwa zvebhizimisi.

Liu Jincheng akaburitsa kuti Yiwei Lithium Energy chinangwa chebhizinesi muna 2024 ndechekurima zvakanyanya uye kudzosera zvimedu mumatura, vachitarisira kuti fekitori yega yega inovakwa inogona kuwana pundutso.Pakati pavo, maererano nemabhatiri ekuchengetedza simba, isu tichaedza kuwedzera kuvandudza dhizaini gore rino uye gore rinouya, uye kutanga kubva gore rino, isu zvishoma nezvishoma tichawedzera chiyero chekutumira chePack (bhatiri pack) uye system.

Ruipu Lanjun akambotaura kuti inotenda kuti kambani inogona kuwana purofiti uye kuburitsa mari yekushandisa ichipinda muna 2025. Pamusoro pekugadzirisa mitengo yezvigadzirwa, kambani ichazadzisa zvinangwa zvayo nekuvandudza mashandiro ekugadzira, ichiwedzera kugona kwayo kupindura kushanduka kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa, kuwedzera mari yekutengesa, uye kugadzira hupfumi hwehukuru.