BP neStatoil dzakadzima zvibvumirano zvekutengesa magetsi kubva kumapurojekiti makuru emhepo ekumahombekombe kuenda kuNew York state, chiratidzo chekuti mitengo yakakwira icharamba ichitambudza indasitiri.Asi hazvisi zvose zvakaipa uye kusuruvara.Nekudaro, mamiriro ekunze kuMiddle East, mutengesi akakosha wemafuta uye gasi rechisikigo kupasi, anoramba akashata.Heino tarisiro yezvishanu zviri kubuda muindasitiri yemagetsi mugore rinouya.
1. Mitengo yemafuta inofanira kuramba yakagadzikana pasinei nekusagadzikana
Musika wemafuta wakatanga muna 2024. Brent crude yakagadzikana pamadhora makumi manomwe neshanu padhiramu, ichisvetuka kudarika madhora maviri.Mabhomba muIran anoratidza kusawirirana kuri kuitika kuMiddle East.Kuenderera mberi kwekusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika - kunyanya mukana wekuwedzera mukukonana pakati peIsrael neHamas - zvinoreva kusagadzikana mumitengo yemafuta asina kuchena kucharamba kuripo, asi vaongorori vazhinji vanotenda kuti mabearish fundamentals achadzikamisa mutengo unowanikwa.

Pamusoro peiyo kushomeka kwedata rehupfumi hwenyika.Kugadzirwa kweoiri kweUS kwakasimba zvisingatarisirwi, zvichibatsira kuchengetedza mitengo.Zvichakadaro, kurwisana mukati meOPEC +, sekubuda kweAngola muboka mwedzi wapera, kwakamutsa mibvunzo pamusoro pekugona kwayo kuchengetedza mitengo yemafuta kuburikidza nekuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa.
Iyo US Energy Information Administration inoronga mitengo yemafuta kusvika pakati pemadhora makumi masere nematatu padhiramu muna 2024.
2. Panogona kunge paine nzvimbo yakawanda yezviitwa zveM&A
Yakatevedzana madhiri makuru emafuta negasi akateedzerwa muna 2023: Exxon Mobil uye Pioneer Natural Resources yemadhora mabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu, Chevron neHess pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi mashanu nematatu, Occidental Petroleum neKrone- Rock chibvumirano chinosvika mabhiriyoni gumi nemaviri emadhora.
Kudzikira kwemakwikwi ezviwanikwa - kunyanya muPermian Basin ine zvibereko zvakanyanya - zvinoreva kuti zvibvumirano zvakawanda zvinogona kurohwa sezvo makambani ari kutarisa kuvhara zviwanikwa zvekuchera.Asi nemakambani makuru mazhinji atotora matanho, masaizi edhiri muna 2024 anogona kunge ari madiki.
Pakati pemakambani makuru emuAmerica, ConocoPhillips haasati apinda mubato.Runyerekupe rwakawanda rwekuti Shell neBP vanogona kusanganisa "indasitiri-seismic", asi CEO mutsva weShell Vail Savant anosimbirira kuti kutora kukuru hakusi kwekutanga pakati pazvino na2025.
3. Pasinei nematambudziko, kuvakwa kwesimba renewable kuchaenderera mberi
Mari yekukwereta yakakwira, mitengo yakakwira yezvigadzirwa uye kubvumidza matambudziko kucharova indasitiri yesimba rinogoneka muna 2024, asi kuendeswa kweprojekiti kucharamba kuchiisa marekodhi.
Zvinoenderana nefungidziro yeInternational Energy Agency yaJune 2023, anopfuura 460 GW emapurojekiti emagetsi anovandudzwa anotarisirwa kuiswa pasi rose muna 2024, rekodhi yakakwira.Iyo US Energy Information Administration inofanotaura kuti mhepo uye kugadzirwa kwesimba rezuva kuchapfuura kugadzirwa kwemarasha kekutanga muna 2024.
Solar mapurojekiti achatyaira kukura kwepasirese, pamwe pagore rakaiswa simba rinotarisirwa kukura ne7%, nepo hutsva hunobva kumahombekombe uye kumahombekombe emhepo mapurojekiti achange akaderera zvishoma pane muna 2023. Maererano neInternational Energy Agency, mapurojekiti mazhinji emagetsi anovandudzwa achaiswa. muChina, uye China inotarisirwa kuverengera makumi mashanu neshanu muzana epasi rose akaiswa masimba emapurojekiti emagetsi matsva muna 2024.
2024 inonziwo "kugadzira kana kuputsa gore" yekuchenesa hydrogen simba.Nyika dzinosvika pfumbamwe dzakazivisa zvirongwa zvekubatsira kusimudzira kugadzirwa kwemafuta ari kubuda, sekureva kweS&P Global Commodities, asi zviratidzo zvekukwira kwemitengo uye kushaikwa kwekuda zvakasiya indasitiri isina chokwadi.
4. Kumhanya kweUS indasitiri yekudzoka kuchawedzera
Kubva zvakasainwa muna 2022, mutemo wekuderedza inflation wakurudzira United States kuisa mari yakawanda mukuzivisa mafekitori matsva akachena.Asi 2024 inguva yekutanga isu tichave nekujekesa kuti makambani anogona sei kuwana mari yemutero inonzi iri mumutemo, uye kana kuvakwa kwezvidyarwa zvakaziviswa kuchatanga.
Idzi inguva dzakaoma dzekugadzirwa kweAmerica.Iyo boom yekugadzira inopindirana nemusika wakaoma wevashandi uye mitengo yakakwira yezvigadzirwa.Izvi zvinogona kukonzera kunonoka kwefekitori uye nepamusoro-kupfuura-inotarisirwa kushandiswa kwemari.Kana United States ichikwanisa kusimudza kuvakwa kwemafekitori ehunyanzvi akachena pamitengo yemakwikwi ichave nyaya yakakosha mukuitwa kwechirongwa chekudzoka kwemaindasitiri.
Deloitte Consulting inofanotaura kuti gumi nemasere akarongwa emagetsi emagetsi ekugadzira zvidyarwa zvichatanga kuvakwa muna 2024 sekudyidzana kwakawanda pakati peEast Coast states uye hurumende yemubatanidzwa inopa rutsigiro rwekuvaka kwemahombekombe emhepo emagetsi emagetsi emagetsi.
Deloitte anoti mudzimba dzeUS solar module yekugadzira ichaita zvakapetwa katatu gore rino uye iri munzira yekuzadzisa zvinodiwa mukupera kwegumi.Nekudaro, kugadzirwa munzvimbo dzepamusoro dzekutengesa kwave kunonoka kubata.Yekutanga US kugadzira zvidyarwa zvemasolar maseru, solar wafers uye solar ingots zvinotarisirwa kuuya online gare gare gore rino.
5. United States ichasimbisa hutongi hwayo mumunda weLNG
Zvinoenderana nefungidziro yekutanga nevanoongorora, United States ichapfuura Qatar neAustralia kuti ive yakakura pasi rose mugadziri weLNG muna 2023. Bloomberg data inoratidza kuti United States yakatengesa kunze anopfuura 91 miriyoni matani eLNG gore rese.
Muna 2024, United States ichasimbisa kutonga kwayo pamusika weLNG.Kana zvese zvikafamba zvakanaka, iyo US yazvino LNG yekugadzira huwandu hunosvika 11.5 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka pazuva ichawedzerwa nemapurojekiti maviri matsva ari kuuya muna 2024: imwe muTexas uye imwe muLouisiana.Sekureva kwevanoongorora kuClear View Energy Partners, mapurojekiti matatu anosvika padanho rekupedzisira rekudyara sarudzo muna 2023. Mamwe mapurojekiti matanhatu anogona kubvumidzwa muna 2024, ane huwandu hwakabatanidzwa hwe6 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka pazuva.