Yakasanganiswa nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo ekuwandisa uye kuderera kwekuda muindasitiri yephotovoltaic muna 2023, nzira nhatu dzinotevera dzekusimudzira dzichaumbwa muna 2024, zvichikanganisa kusimudzira kwenguva refu kweindasitiri yephotovoltaic:

1) Tekinoroji inotungamira nzira uye inofamba nematenderedzwa.Pasi pematambo ekare akaperekedzwa nekuchinja kukuru mune tekinoroji, uye kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kunogona kupedzisira kuona nheyo yekutanga yekudzikisa mari uye kuwedzera kushanda zvakanaka muindasitiri yephotovoltaic;

2) Inguva yekuwedzera mhiri kwemakungwa.Zvichipesana nemashure ekudzikira kudiwa kwemba, makambani anonyatso tsvaga nzira dzakasiyana dzemusika kuti dzibvise huwandu hwekugadzira.Kana paine mikana yekubatana, kutora uye kugadzirisa, vanogonawo kukurumidza kuitika kwekudyidzana kwepasirese;

3) Kukura kukuru kwesimba idzva rinotsigira masisitimu nemidziyo.Iyo lag mukuvakwa kwesimba remagetsi yakanganisa zvakanyanya kukura kweiyo yakagovaniswa yakaiswa simba, zvichikonzera kudzikira kudiwa.Kuvandudzwa kunotarisirwa kukurumidza mumakore makumi maviri nemana.Panguva imwecheteyo, kuchengetedza kwesimba, sechinhu chakakosha chinotsigira, chinotarisirwawo kubatsirwa kubva pane izvi.

1. Photovoltaic industry chain supply uye kudiwa kuongororwa

1.1 Rutivi rwemitemo inoshingairira kutungamira kusimudzira kwemhando yepamusoro yeindasitiri yephotovoltaic

Rutivi rwematongerwo enyika runopindura zvakasimba kune cyclical kuderera kunokonzerwa nekuwedzera kwekukurumidza kwe photovoltaic kugadzirwa kwesimba.Kune rumwe rutivi, kukurumidza kweIPOs uye refinancing ichasimbiswa mumatanho ekudzora kukurumidza kuwedzera kweiyo photovoltaic industry.Vamwe vatambi vatsva nemakambani ane mari isina kukwana anozorambidzwa zvakananga.Iyo kambani iyo pachayo hematopoietic kugona kunonyanya kukosha.Indasitiri yakatarisana inotarisirwa kuwedzera uye nzvimbo yemakwikwi ichawedzerwa.Kune rimwe divi, bhizinesi rekugadzira symposium yakatarisana nekusimudzira kwemhando yepamusoro yephotovoltaic indasitiri, kutungamira uye kutsigira bhizinesi tekinoroji innovation uye inonzwisisika marongero eiyo photovoltaic indasitiri yekugadzira kugona.

Pamusoro pezvo, indasitiri yephotovoltaic yenyika yangu inotsamira zvakanyanya pamusika wepasi rose.Mumakore achangopfuura, chiyero chezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika chave chakakura kupfuura chiyero chemukati chakaiswa zvikamu.Nekudaro, iyo US tariff mutemo pane kunze kwenyika photovoltaic zvigadzirwa zvakachinja kazhinji, senge anti-kutenderera kuferefeta uye kuita kweUFLPA.Kugadzwa kwechibvumirano chekudyidzana kwebudiriro kwatumira chiratidzo chakanaka kune nyika yangu photovoltaic chigadzirwa kunze.

1.2 Supply: Kambani yakadzikisa kukurumidza kwekuwedzera kwekugadzira uye ine mari yakakwana.

Iyo kambani inodzika kukurumidza kwayo yekuwedzera uye zvishoma nezvishoma inokwenenzvera yayo yekugovera-parutivi chimiro.Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kuOriental Fortune, muchikamu chekutanga uye chechipiri che2023, makambani makumi matanhatu muindasitiri yephotovoltaic akatanga kudzorera mari neavhareji yekota inodarika bhiriyoni zana.Pakati pavo, makambani makumi mana neshanu akanyorwa akakwidza 115.8 bhiriyoni yeyuan kuburikidza nekuwedzera kuburitswa, uye makambani gumi nerimwe akapa anochinjika mabhondi ekukwidza 53.1 bhiriyoni yuan.Yuan, 3 masheya matsva akanyorwa uye akasimudza 4.659 bhiriyoni yuan;maererano nedata kubva kuPolaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, muhafu yekutanga ye2023, kuwedzera kwesilicon material production scale kuchasvika 760,000 tons, chiyero chesilicon wafers chichasvika 442GW, uye chiyero chemasero uye zvikamu zvichasvika 1,100GW.Muhafu yekutanga yegore, mari uye kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwemakambani e photovoltaic akanga ari mukuzara.

Nekudaro, sezvinhu zvakaita sekuwandisa zvishoma nezvishoma kwezvinhu zvesilicon, kukurumidza kudzvanywa kwemhindu yakawandisa yeTOPCon maseru, kudzika kwakadzika kwenzvimbo yepurofiti yeketani yemaindasitiri, kudzikira kwekukura kwekuda, uye kusimba kwechikamu kweIPO nekubhadharazve, musika mukuru wakatanga kutonhora pasi, uye indasitiri ye photovoltaic kubvira Chikamu chechitatu chakaratidza kuwedzera kuri pachena maitiro ekuvandudza padivi rekupa.Semuenzaniso, muchikamu chechitatu, mari yeindasitiri yephotovoltaic yaive isingasviki 50 bhiriyoni yuan;seQ3, tichitarisa kufambira mberi kweiyo indasitiri yakaziviswa yekuwedzera mapurojekiti, zvese zvinongedzo mune photovoltaic indasitiri cheni zvave kuderera kubva 2023. Kufambira mberi kwemamwe mapurojekiti kusvika pakugadzirwa kunonoka zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.Zvinotarisirwa kuti indasitiri yekuda kuwedzera kugadzirwa ichadzikira zvakanyanya muhafu yekutanga ya2024.

1.3 Kudiwa: Q4 Domestic yakaiswa simba yakawedzera zvakanyanya, nepo kukosha kwekutengesa kunze uye chiyero zvese zvakaderera.

Muzvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zve2023, chiyero chemumba chikamu chebidha chakawedzera zvakanyanya gore negore.Sekureva kweGaisi Consulting data, iyo yepamba module yekubhidha chiyero muzvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zve2023 yaive 295.85GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe90%;iyo module yekuhwina bid chiyero yaive 463.50GW, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe219.3%, iyo yepamba module yekubhidha chiyero munaGunyana yaive 56.2GW, mwedzi-pa-mwedzi kuwedzera 50.7%, uye module yekuhwina chiyero yaive 39.1 GW, mwedzi-pa-mwedzi kuderera kwe35.8%.

Chikamu chinodiwa chinotarisirwa kudzikira muchikamu chechina, neN chikamu chekutenga chinoverengera inopfuura hafu.Zvinoenderana nedata reSMM, N-mhando module calibration yakaratidza kukura kwakaputika kubva munaGunyana kusvika Gumiguru 2023, nechiyero checalibration chinodarika 20GW.Pakati pavo, chikamu chekutenga module muna Gumiguru chaive 22.91GW, uye N-mhando yekutenga module yaive 53%.Nekuda kwekutanga-mufambi mukana weTOPCon tekinoroji, yakaverengera kupfuura makumi manomwe muzana echikamu chakakwana mukubhidha uye kutenga kwepakati kwemamwe mabhizinesi epakati uye ehurumende, zvichiratidza kuti maitiro emabhatiri eN-mhando anotsiva P- mhando mabhatiri ari kutora chimiro zvishoma nezvishoma.Sezvo mitengo muindasitiri ichiri kuramba ichidzikira, kudiwa kwemodule kunotarisirwa kunge kwakadzikira pane yaitarisirwa mukota yechina, nekudyara kwekudyara kuri iko kwekutanga kukosha, asi N-mhando mamodules acharamba achiverengera chikamu chepamusoro.

New centralized yakaiswa simba inotarisirwa kuchengetedza kukura mukota yechina.Kubva munaNdira kusvika Gumiguru 2023, nyika yangu ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic simba yaive 142.6GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe145%.Pakati pavo, iyo ichangobva kuiswa simba muna Gumiguru yaiva 13.6GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe142%, uye mwedzi-pa-mwedzi kuderera kwe14%.Chikonzero chekuderera chinogona kunge chiri kukanganisa kwezororo.Kubva pamaonero eiyo yakaiswa simba chimiro, yakagovaniswa yakamisikidzwa yakapfuura 50% muna 2023, uye yepakati yakaiswa simba yakawedzera nekukurumidza gore negore.Pakati pavo, Q3 yakagovaniswa yakaiswa 26.2GW, accounting ye51.8%, uye centralized yakaiswa simba yaive 24.3GW, accounting ye48.2%.Sezvo mitengo mumhando dzakasiyana-siyana mucheni yeindasitiri ichiramba ichidzikira nguva pfupi yadarika, yepakati yakaiswa simba inotarisirwa kuchengetedza kukura kubva munaNovember kusvika Zvita.

Photovoltaic product exports zvose zvakaderera mukukosha uye chiyero munaOctober.Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Gumiguru 2023, iyo nyika yangu yakawedzera kukosha kunze kwenyika yezvigadzirwa zvephotovoltaic (masilicon rods, silicon wafers, maseru, modules) yaive US $43.766 bhiriyoni, gore-pa-gore kudzikira kwe2.Pakati pavo, kukosha kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika muna Gumiguru kwakasvika US $ 3.094 bhiriyoni, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwe24.7%.Mwedzi-pa-mwedzi kuderera kwaiva 19.2%, yakaderera mumwedzi mumwe chete mumakore maviri apfuura.Chikonzero chikuru chaive chekuti hwaro hwepamusoro gore rapfuura hwakakonzera kudzvinyirira kukuru mune mamwe matunhu.

Sekureva kweInfoLink data, nyika yangu yekuwedzera moduli yekuburitsa chiyero kubva munaNdira kusvika Gumiguru 2023 yaive 174.1 GW, kuwedzera-pagore kwe30.6%.Pakati pavo, iyo module yekuendesa kunze kwenyika muna Gumiguru yaive 16.5 GW, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe39.8%, uye mwedzi-pa-mwedzi kuderera kwe16.7%.Mumwedzi miviri yekupedzisira yegore rino, nekuda kwezororo rekune dzimwe nyika uye kudzvanywa kwezvinhu, zvinotarisirwa kuti zvese vhoriyamu uye chiyero chinodzikira.

Huwandu hukuru hwezvinhu zviri kudhonzwa muhafu yekutanga yegore hunogona kukonzera kuderera kwekudiwa mumusika weEurope muchikamu chechina.Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Gumiguru 2023, nyika shanu dzepamusoro muchikamu chenyika yangu chekutengesa kunze iNetherlands, Brazil, Spain, India, neSaudi Arabia.Pakati pavo, huwandu hwekutumira kunze kwenyika dzakadai seSaudi Arabia neBelgium hwakawedzera zvakanyanya gore negore.Musika weEurope parizvino ndeimwe yenyika dzakanyanya kukosha kune yangu nyika photovoltaic chigadzirwa kunze.Kubva munaNdira kusvika Gumiguru, Europe yakaunza huwandu hwe91.6GW yephotovoltaic modules, gore negore kuwedzera kwe22.6%.Pakati pavo, China yakatumira kunze 6.2GW yeEuropean photovoltaic modules muna Gumiguru, gore negore kuderera kwe10%.Iko kuderera kwe18% kunonyanya kukonzerwa nekuunganidza kwezvinyorwa zvinokonzerwa nehuwandu hwezvinhu muhafu yekutanga yegore rino.Zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kwese muEurope kuchadonha zvakanyanya muchikamu chechina chechinyakare kunze kwemwaka.

Muna 2023, kukura kwehuwandu hutsva hwakaiswa munyika uye China inotarisirwa kukwira hutsva hutsva, uye kukura kwekukura kunotarisirwa kudonha zvakanyanya mumakore makumi maviri nemana-25.Kubva munaNdira kusvika Gumiguru gore rino, nyika yangu ichangobva kuiswa photovoltaic yakasvika 142.56GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe144.78%.Pakati pavo, iyo ichangobva kuiswa photovoltaic simba munaOctober yaiva 13.62GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe141.49%.