BP na Statoil bahagaritse amasezerano yo kugurisha amashanyarazi mu mishinga minini y’umuyaga wo mu nyanja muri leta ya New York, ikimenyetso cyerekana ko amafaranga menshi azakomeza kwibasira inganda.Ariko ntabwo aribyago byose.Icyakora, ikirere cyo mu burasirazuba bwo hagati, isoko ry’ibanze rya peteroli na gaze ku isi, gikomeje kuba kibi.Hano reba neza ibintu bitanu bigenda bigaragara mu nganda zingufu mumwaka utaha.
1. Ibiciro bya peteroli bigomba kuguma bihamye nubwo bihindagurika
Isoko rya peteroli ryatangiye kuzamuka no kugabanuka mu 2024. Igicuruzwa cya Brent cyatuye $ 78.25 kuri barrale, gisimbuka amadolari arenga 2.Ibisasu byaturikiye muri Irani byerekana amakimbirane akomeje kuba mu burasirazuba bwo hagati.Ikibazo kidashidikanywaho cya geopolitiki - cyane cyane ko hashobora kwiyongera amakimbirane hagati ya Isiraheli na Hamas - bivuze ko ihindagurika ry’ibiciro bya peteroli rizakomeza, ariko abasesenguzi benshi bemeza ko ishingiro ry’ibanze rizagabanya izamuka ry’ibiciro.

Hejuru yibyo ni amakuru yubukungu bwisi yose.Umusaruro wa peteroli muri Amerika wari ukomeye mu buryo butunguranye, ufasha kugenzura ibiciro.Hagati aho, amakimbirane muri OPEC +, nko kuva muri Angola kuva muri iryo tsinda mu kwezi gushize, byateje kwibaza ku bushobozi ifite bwo gukomeza ibiciro bya peteroli binyuze mu kugabanya umusaruro.
Ikigo gishinzwe amakuru y’ingufu muri Amerika giteganya ibiciro bya peteroli ku kigereranyo cya $ 83 kuri buri barrale mu 2024.
2. Hashobora kuba hari ibyumba byinshi byibikorwa bya M&A
Urukurikirane rw'amasezerano manini ya peteroli na gaze yakurikijwe mu 2023: Exxon Mobil na Pioneer Umutungo Kamere wa miliyari 60 z'amadolari, Chevron na Hess kuri miliyari 53 z'amadolari, Occidental Petroleum na Krone- Rock bingana na miliyari 12 z'amadolari.
Kugabanya amarushanwa ku mutungo - cyane cyane mu kibaya cya Permiya gitanga umusaruro mwinshi - bivuze ko amasezerano menshi ashobora gukorwa mu gihe ibigo bishaka gufunga umutungo wo gucukura.Ariko hamwe nibigo byinshi binini bimaze gufata ingamba, ingano yubucuruzi muri 2024 irashobora kuba nto.
Mu masosiyete akomeye yo muri Amerika, ConocoPhillips ntarinjira mu ishyaka.Ibihuha biravugwa ko Shell na BP bashobora guhuriza hamwe “inganda-seisimike”, ariko umuyobozi mushya wa Shell, Vail Savant, ashimangira ko kugura ibintu atari byo byihutirwa hagati ya 2025.
3. Nubwo bigoye, kubaka ingufu zishobora gukomeza
Amafaranga menshi yo kuguza, ibiciro byibikoresho fatizo hamwe nibibazo byemerera bizagerwaho ninganda zishobora kongera ingufu mumwaka wa 2024, ariko kohereza imishinga bizakomeza kwandika amateka.
Nk’uko ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu kibiteganya muri Kamena 2023, biteganijwe ko hashyirwaho GW zirenga 460 z'umushinga w'ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu mu 2024, ukaba uri hejuru cyane.Ikigo gishinzwe amakuru ku bijyanye n’ingufu muri Amerika giteganya ko kubyara umuyaga n’izuba bizarenga amashanyarazi akomoka ku makara ku nshuro ya mbere mu 2024.
Imishinga ikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba izatera imbere ku isi, hakaba hateganijwe ko ingufu zashyizweho buri mwaka ziyongera ku gipimo cya 7%, mu gihe ubushobozi bushya buturuka ku mishinga y’umuyaga ku butaka ndetse no ku nyanja buzaba munsi gato ugereranije no mu 2023. Nk’uko ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu kibitangaza, hazashyirwaho imishinga myinshi mishya y’ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa. mu Bushinwa, n'Ubushinwa biteganijwe ko bingana na 55% by'ubushobozi rusange bw’isi bwashyizweho mu mishinga mishya y’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu mu 2024.
2024 ifatwa kandi "gukora cyangwa kumena umwaka" kugirango ingufu za hydrogène zisukure.Nibura ibihugu icyenda byatangaje gahunda y’inkunga yo kuzamura umusaruro w’ibikomoka kuri peteroli nk'uko S&P Global Commodities ibitangaza, ariko ibimenyetso by’ibiciro byazamutse ndetse n’ibikenerwa bidakabije byatumye inganda zitamenyekana.
4. Umuvuduko wo kugaruka kwinganda muri Amerika uzihuta
Kuva ryashyirwaho umukono mu 2022, itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga ryatumye Amerika ishora imari cyane mu gutangaza inganda nshya z’ikoranabuhanga zifite isuku.Ariko 2024 nubwa mbere tuzasobanuka neza uburyo amasosiyete ashobora kubona inguzanyo zinjiza amafaranga menshi bivugwa ko ari mumategeko, kandi niba koko kubaka izo nganda byatangajwe bizatangira.
Ibi nibihe bigoye kubikorwa byabanyamerika.Iterambere ryinganda rihura nisoko rikomeye ryumurimo nigiciro kinini cyibikoresho fatizo.Ibi birashobora gutuma uruganda rutinda kandi birenze ibyo byari byateganijwe gukoreshwa.Niba Amerika ishobora kongera ingufu mu iyubakwa ry’inganda z’ikoranabuhanga zisukuye ku giciro cyo gupiganwa bizaba ikibazo cy’ingenzi mu ishyirwa mu bikorwa rya gahunda yo kugaruka mu nganda.
Deloitte Consulting iteganya ko uruganda 18 ruteganijwe gukora uruganda rukora ingufu z'umuyaga ruzatangira kubakwa mu 2024 mu gihe ubufatanye bwinshi hagati y’ibihugu byo ku nkombe z’iburasirazuba na guverinoma ihuriweho na leta butanga inkunga yo kubaka imiyoboro itanga amashanyarazi ku nyanja.
Deloitte avuga ko ingufu z'amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba muri Amerika zizikuba gatatu muri uyu mwaka kandi ziri mu nzira zo kuzuza ibisabwa mu mpera z'imyaka icumi.Nyamara, umusaruro murwego rwo hejuru rwurwego rwo gutanga watinze gufata.Biteganijwe ko uruganda rwa mbere rukora muri Amerika rukora ingirabuzimafatizo zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba, imirasire y'izuba hamwe n’izuba riteganijwe kuza ku rubuga nyuma yuyu mwaka.
5. Amerika izashimangira ubwiganze bwayo murwego rwa LNG
Dukurikije ibigereranyo byabanje gukorwa n’abasesenguzi, Amerika izarenga Qatar na Ositaraliya kugira ngo ibe uruganda runini rwa LNG ku isi mu 2023. Amakuru ya Bloomberg yerekana ko Amerika yohereje toni zisaga miliyoni 91 za LNG mu mwaka wose.
Muri 2024, Amerika izashimangira kugenzura isoko rya LNG.Niba byose bigenda neza, muri iki gihe Amerika LNG itanga umusaruro wa metero kibe 11,5 ku munsi iziyongera ku mishinga ibiri mishya izaza mu 2024: imwe muri Texas n'indi muri Louisiana.Abasesenguzi ba Clear View Energy Partners bavuga ko imishinga itatu igera ku cyiciro cya nyuma cy’icyemezo cy’ishoramari mu 2023. Nkindi mishinga igera kuri itandatu ishobora kwemezwa mu 2024, ikaba ifite ubushobozi bwa metero kibe 6 kuri buri munsi.