Urebye uko ibintu byifashe muri iki gihe ndetse n’ubushake bukenewe mu nganda zifotora mu 2023, hazashyirwaho inzira eshatu zikomeye z’iterambere zikurikira mu 2024, zigira ingaruka ku iterambere rirambye ry’inganda zifotora:

1) Ikoranabuhanga riyobora inzira kandi rinyura mu ruziga.Hasi yizunguruka zabanjirije iyi yaherekejwe nimpinduka nini mubuhanga, kandi iterambere ryikoranabuhanga rirashobora kubona ihame rya mbere ryo kugabanya ibiciro no kongera imikorere munganda zifotora;

2) Igihe kirageze cyo kwaguka mumahanga.Kuruhande rwinyuma yo gutinda kwimbere mu gihugu, ibigo bizashakisha byanze bikunze inzira zitandukanye zamasoko kugirango bikureho umusaruro mwinshi.Niba hari amahirwe yo guhuza, kugura no kuvugurura, birashobora kandi kwihutisha ishyirwa mubikorwa ryisi;

3) Iterambere rikomeye rya sisitemu nibikoresho bifasha ingufu.Gutinda mu iyubakwa rya sisitemu y’amashanyarazi byagize ingaruka zikomeye ku izamuka ry’ubushobozi bwagabanijwe, biganisha ku kugabanuka.Iterambere riteganijwe kwihuta mumyaka 24.Muri icyo gihe, kubika ingufu, nkigikoresho cyingenzi gishyigikira, nabyo biteganijwe ko byungukirwa nibi.

1. Uruganda rwa Photovoltaque rutanga isoko hamwe nisesengura ryibisabwa

1.1 Uruhande rwa politiki ruyobora cyane iterambere ryujuje ubuziranenge bwinganda zifotora

Uruhande rwa politiki rwitabira byimazeyo kugabanuka kwizuba ryatewe no kwaguka byihuse ubushobozi bwamashanyarazi.Ku ruhande rumwe, umuvuduko wa IPO no gutera inkunga bizashimangirwa mu byiciro kugira ngo hagenzurwe kwaguka byihuse inganda zifotora.Bamwe mu bakinnyi bashya hamwe n’amasosiyete afite amafaranga adahagije bazahagarikwa.Isosiyete ifite ubushobozi bwa hematopoietic ifite akamaro kanini.Inganda ziteganijwe kwiyongera kandi imiterere irushanwa izarushaho kuba nziza.Ku rundi ruhande, ibiganiro nyunguranabitekerezo by’inganda byibanze ku iterambere ryiza ry’inganda zifotora amashanyarazi, kuyobora no gutera inkunga udushya mu ikoranabuhanga no gushyira mu gaciro ubushobozi bw’inganda zitanga amashanyarazi.

Byongeye kandi, inganda zanjye zifotora amashanyarazi zishingiye cyane ku isoko ryisi.Mu myaka yashize, igipimo cyoherezwa mu mahanga cyabaye kinini kuruta igipimo cy’imbere mu gihugu.Icyakora, politiki y’ibiciro by’Amerika ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga byinjira mu mahanga byahindutse kenshi, nk'iperereza rirwanya kuzenguruka no gushyira mu bikorwa UFLPA.Gushiraho ubwumvikane ku bufatanye bw’iterambere byatanze ikimenyetso cyiza ku gihugu cyanjye cyohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga.

1.2 Isoko: Isosiyete yagabanije umuvuduko wo kwagura umusaruro kandi ifite amafaranga ahagije.

Isosiyete igabanya umuvuduko wo kwaguka kandi igahindura buhoro buhoro imiterere itanga.Dukurikije imibare yaturutse mu burasirazuba bwa Fortune, mu gihembwe cya mbere n'icya kabiri cyo mu 2023, ibigo 60 byo mu nganda zifotora amashanyarazi byatangiye gutera inkunga inguzanyo hamwe na buri gihembwe kingana na miliyari 100 z'amadorari.Muri byo, amasosiyete 45 yashyizwe ku rutonde yakusanyije miliyari 115.8 y’amafaranga binyuze mu gutanga andi masosiyete, naho amasosiyete 11 atanga inguzanyo zishobora guhinduka kugira ngo akusanye miliyari 53.1.Yuan, imigabane 3 mishya yashyizwe ku rutonde kandi yakusanyije miliyari 4.659;dukurikije amakuru yatanzwe na Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka wa 2023, kwagura umusaruro w’ibikoresho bya silicon bizagera kuri toni 760.000, igipimo cya wafer ya silicon kizagera kuri 442GW, naho ingirabuzimafatizo n’ibigize bizagera kuri 1100GW.Mu gice cya mbere cyumwaka, gutera inkunga no kwagura umusaruro wibigo bifotora amashanyarazi byari byuzuye.

Nyamara, nkibintu nko gutanga buhoro buhoro ibikoresho bya silikoni, kugabanuka byihuse byinyungu zirenze za selile TOPCon, ihinduka ryamanuka ryikigo cyunguka cyurwego rwinganda, igabanuka ryubwiyongere bwibisabwa, hamwe no gukomera kwa IPO no gutera inkunga, isoko ry’imari ryatangiye gukonja, kandi inganda zifotora kuva mu gihembwe cya gatatu zerekanye ko bigaragara ko hari iterambere ryagaragaye ku isoko.Kurugero, mu gihembwe cya gatatu, inkunga yinganda zifotora ntizari munsi ya miliyari 50;guhera kuri Q3, urebye aho iterambere ryagaragaye mu bikorwa byo kwagura inganda byatangajwe, imiyoboro yose y’uruganda rw’amafoto y’amashanyarazi yagabanutse kuva mu 2023. Iterambere ry’imishinga imwe n'imwe igera ku musaruro iratinda cyane kuruta uko byari byitezwe.Biteganijwe ko ubushake bw’inganda muri rusange bwo kwagura umusaruro buzagabanuka cyane mu gice cya mbere cya 2024.

1.3 Icyifuzo: Q4 Ubushobozi bwimbere mu gihugu bwiyongereye cyane, mugihe agaciro kwohereza hanze nubunini byombi byagabanutse.

Mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, igipimo cyo gupiganira ibicuruzwa mu gihugu cyiyongereye cyane umwaka-ku-mwaka.Dukurikije imibare ya Gaisi Consulting, igipimo cyo gupiganira amasoko mu gihugu mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023 cyari 295.85GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 90%;icyiciro cyatsindiye amasoko cyari 463.50GW, umwaka-ku mwaka wiyongereyeho 219.3%, muri byo igipimo cy’amasoko yo mu gihugu imbere muri Nzeri cyari 56.2GW, ukwezi ku kwezi kwiyongera 50.7%, naho amanota yatsindiye ni 39.1 GW, ukwezi-ukwezi kugabanuka 35.8%.

Biteganijwe ko ibyifuzo bikenerwa kugabanuka mugihembwe cya kane, hamwe namasoko ya N yibice birenga kimwe cya kabiri.Dukurikije imibare ya SMM, kalibrasi ya N yo mu bwoko bwa N yerekanaga ubwiyongere buturika kuva muri Nzeri kugeza Ukwakira 2023, hamwe na kalibrasi irenga 20GW.Muri byo, igipimo cyo gutanga amasoko ya module mu Kwakira cyari 22.91GW, naho N-module yo gutanga amasoko yari 53%.Bitewe ninyungu yambere yimikorere ya tekinoroji ya TOPCon, imaze kurenga 70% byumugabane wuzuye mugutanga amasoko no kugura amasoko hagati yibigo bimwe na bimwe bya leta na leta, byerekana ko imigendekere ya bateri yo mu bwoko bwa N isimbuza P- ubwoko bwa bateri buragenda buhoro buhoro.Mugihe ibiciro murwego rwinganda bikomeje kugabanuka, ibyifuzo byamasomo biteganijwe ko bizaba munsi yibyo byari byateganijwe mugihembwe cya kane, hamwe no gutondeka ibarura nicyo kintu cyambere cyambere, ariko N-modules izakomeza kubara igice kinini.

Ubushobozi bushya bwashyizwe hamwe buteganijwe gukomeza iterambere mu gihembwe cya kane.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira 2023, igihugu cyanjye gishya cyashyizwemo ingufu z'amashanyarazi cyari 142.6GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 145%.Muri byo, ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho mu Kwakira bwari 13.6GW, umwaka ushize kwiyongera 142%, naho ukwezi ku kwezi kugabanuka 14%.Impamvu yo kugabanuka irashobora kuba ingaruka zikiruhuko.Duhereye ku miterere yubushobozi bwashyizweho, gukwirakwiza ubushobozi bwashyizwe hejuru ya 50% muri 2023, kandi ubushobozi bwashyizwe hamwe bwiyongereye byihuse umwaka-ku-mwaka.Muri byo, Q3 yagabanije ubushobozi bwashyizweho bwari 26.2GW, bingana na 51.8%, naho ubushobozi bwashyizwe hagati bwari 24.3GW, bingana na 48.2%.Mugihe ibiciro mumirongo itandukanye murwego rwinganda bikomeje kugabanuka vuba aha, biteganijwe ko ubushobozi bwashyizweho buteganijwe gukomeza kuzamuka kuva mu Gushyingo kugeza Ukuboza.

Ibicuruzwa bya Photovoltaque byohereza ibicuruzwa byombi byagabanutse mu gaciro no mu Kwakira.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira 2023, igihugu cyanjye cyohereje mu mahanga ibicuruzwa biva mu mafoto (inkoni ya silikoni, wafer ya silicon, selile, modules) byari miliyari 43.766 z'amadolari ya Amerika, umwaka ushize ukaba wagabanutseho 2,6%.Muri byo, agaciro ko kohereza mu mahanga mu Kwakira kangana na miliyari 3.094 z'amadolari y'Amerika, umwaka ushize ugabanuka 24.7%.Kugabanuka ukwezi-ukwezi kwari 19.2%, hasi cyane mukwezi kumwe mumyaka ibiri ishize.Impamvu nyamukuru ni uko umusingi muremure umwaka ushize watumye habaho umuvuduko ukabije mu turere tumwe na tumwe.

Dukurikije amakuru ya InfoLink, igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe mu gihugu cyanjye kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira 2023 cyari 174.1 GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 30.6%.Muri byo, igipimo cyo kohereza mu mahanga mu Kwakira cyari 16.5 GW, umwaka ku mwaka wiyongereyeho 39.8%, naho ukwezi ku kwezi kugabanuka 16.7%.Mu mezi abiri ashize yuyu mwaka, kubera iminsi mikuru y’amahanga hamwe n’igitutu cy’ibarura, biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga n’ubunini bizagabanuka.

Umubare munini wibicuruzwa bikururwa mugice cya mbere cyumwaka birashobora gutuma igabanuka ryibisabwa ku isoko ry’iburayi mu gihembwe cya kane.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira 2023, ibihugu bitanu byambere mu bihugu by’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ni Ubuholandi, Burezili, Espagne, Ubuhinde, na Arabiya Sawudite.Muri byo, ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga nka Arabiya Sawudite n'Ububiligi byiyongereye ku buryo bugaragara uko umwaka utashye.Isoko ry’iburayi kuri ubu ni kimwe mu bihugu by’ingenzi mu gihugu cyanjye cyohereza ibicuruzwa mu mafoto y’amashanyarazi.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira, Uburayi bwatumije mu mahanga 91,6GW ya moderi y’amafoto y’amashanyarazi, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 22,6%.Muri byo, Ubushinwa bwohereje 6.2GW ya moderi y’amafoto y’iburayi mu Kwakira, umwaka ushize ugabanukaho 10%.Kugabanuka kwa 18% ahanini biterwa no kwegeranya ibicuruzwa byatewe nibicuruzwa byinshi mugice cya mbere cyuyu mwaka.Biteganijwe ko muri rusange ibisabwa mu Burayi bizagabanuka cyane mu gihembwe cya kane cy’ibihe bidasanzwe.

Mu 2023, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho ku isi n’Ubushinwa biteganijwe ko uzagera ku rwego rwo hejuru, kandi biteganijwe ko umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere uzagabanuka cyane mu myaka 24-25.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira uyu mwaka, igihugu cyanjye gishya cyashyizwemo ingufu z'amashanyarazi cyageze kuri 142.56GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 144.78%.Muri byo, ubushobozi bushya bwo gufotora bushya mu Kwakira bwari 13.62GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 141.49%.