Posachedwa, bungwe lapadziko lonse lapansi la SNE Research lidatulutsa zidziwitso zonyamula mabatire padziko lonse lapansi mu 2023 komanso mndandanda wamakampani osungira mphamvu a lithiamu batire, kukopa chidwi chamsika.

Deta yoyenera ikuwonetsa kuti kutumiza kwa batri padziko lonse lapansi kudafika 185GWh chaka chatha, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka pafupifupi 53%.Kuyang'ana mabatire khumi apamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi osungira mphamvu mu 2023, makampani aku China amakhala ndi mipando isanu ndi itatu, kuwerengera pafupifupi 90% ya zomwe zatumizidwa.Potengera kuchulukirachulukira kwanthawi ndi nthawi, kutsika kwamitengo yazinthu zakumtunda kumafalikira, nkhondo zamtengo wapatali zikuchulukirachulukira, ndipo kuchuluka kwa msika wa batire wosungira mphamvu kumachulukirachulukira.CATL (300750.SZ) yokha (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), ndi Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 .SZ), Ruipu Lanjun (0666.HK), ndi Haichen Energy Storage, msika wonse wamakampani asanu otsogola umaposa 75%. .

M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, msika wa batri yosungirako mphamvu wasintha mwadzidzidzi.Zomwe poyamba zinkawoneka ngati kukhumudwa kwamtengo wapatali komwe kunkamenyedwako tsopano kwasanduka nyanja yofiira ya mpikisano wamtengo wapatali, ndi makampani okonzeka kupikisana nawo msika wapadziko lonse pamitengo yotsika.Komabe, chifukwa cha kuthekera kosagwirizana ndi mtengo wamakampani osiyanasiyana, magwiridwe antchito amakampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi mu 2023 adzasiyanitsidwa.Makampani ena akwanitsa kukula, pamene ena agwera pansi kapena atayika.Kutengera momwe bizinesi ikuyendera, 2024 idzakhala chaka chofunikira komanso chaka chofunikira kwambiri chothandizira kupulumuka kwa omwe ali ndi mphamvu komanso kukonzanso msika wa batire yosungira mphamvu.

Long Zhiqiang, wofufuza wamkulu ku Xinchen Information, adanena poyankhulana ndi mtolankhani wochokera ku China Business News kuti makampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi akupanga phindu lochepa kapena kutaya ndalama.Chifukwa makampani amtundu woyamba ali ndi mpikisano wokwanira komanso zogulitsa zawo zimakhala ndi luso lapamwamba, makampani agawo lachiwiri ndi lachitatu amakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mawu azinthu, kotero kuti phindu lawo limasiyanasiyana.

Kupanikizika kwa mtengo

Mu 2023, ndi kukula kwa mphamvu zatsopano anaika mphamvu ndi kugwa kwa mtengo wa kumtunda zopangira lithiamu carbonate, padziko lonse mphamvu yosungirako msika adzakhala mofulumira, potero kuwonjezera kufunika kwa mabatire mphamvu yosungirako.Komabe, pamodzi ndi izi, mphamvu yosungiramo batire yosungiramo mphamvu yalowa m'nthawi yochuluka chifukwa cha kuwonjezereka kwachangu kopanga ndi osewera atsopano ndi akale.

Malinga ndi zoneneratu za InfoLink Consulting, mphamvu yopangira batire padziko lonse lapansi ikhala pafupi ndi 3,400GWh mu 2024, pomwe ma cell osungira mphamvu amakhala 22%, kufika 750GWh.Nthawi yomweyo, kutumiza kwa batri yosungira mphamvu kudzakula ndi 35% mu 2024, kufika 266GWh.Zitha kuwoneka kuti kufunikira ndi kupereka kwa maselo osungira mphamvu ndizosiyana kwambiri.

Long Zhiqiang adauza atolankhani kuti: "Pakadali pano, mphamvu zonse zosungira mphamvu zamagetsi zafika ku 500GWh, koma zofunikira zenizeni zamakampani chaka chino ndikuti ndizovuta kufikira 300GWh.Pamenepa, mphamvu zopangira zopitirira 200GWh zimakhala zopanda ntchito.

Kukula kwambiri kwamakampani opanga mabatire osungira mphamvu ndi chifukwa cha zinthu zingapo.Pankhani yothamangira kusalowerera ndale kwa kaboni, makampani osungira mphamvu adakwera mwachangu ndikukula kwa msika watsopano wopangira mphamvu zamagetsi.Osewera odutsa malire akuthamangira, akuthamangira kukasewera ndikugawana, ndipo onse akufuna kutenga chidutswa cha pie.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, maboma ena am'deralo awonanso kuti makampani a batire a lithiamu ndi cholinga cholimbikitsa ndalama, kukopa makampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi pogwiritsa ntchito ndalama zothandizira, ndondomeko zosankhidwa, ndi zina zotero kuti zithandizire kukhazikitsidwa kwa ntchito.Kuphatikiza apo, mothandizidwa ndi likulu, makampani opanga mabatire osungira mphamvu apititsa patsogolo mayendedwe akuwonjezeka powonjezera kafukufuku ndi chitukuko, kukulitsa luso lopanga, komanso kukonza kamangidwe kanjira.

Potsutsana ndi kuchulukitsitsa kwapang'onopang'ono, mtengo wonse wamakampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi wawonetsa kutsika kuyambira 2023. Pamene nkhondo yamtengo wapatali pamitengo ya lithiamu carbonate ikukulirakulira, mtengo wa maselo osungira mphamvu watsikanso kuchokera pansi pa 1. yuan/Wh kumayambiriro kwa 2023 mpaka kuchepera 0.35 yuan/Wh.Dontholo ndi lalikulu kwambiri moti limatha kutchedwa "kudula-bondo".

Long Zhiqiang adauza atolankhani kuti: "Mu 2024, mtengo wa lithiamu carbonate wawonetsa kusinthasintha komanso kukwera, koma kutsika kwamitengo yama cell a batri sikunasinthe kwambiri.Pakali pano, mtengo wonse wa batri watsika kufika pa 0.35 yuan/Wh, zomwe zikuyenera kukhala Kutengera zinthu monga kuchuluka kwa dongosolo, zochitika zogwiritsira ntchito, komanso mphamvu zonse zamakampani amagetsi a batri, mtengo wamakampani aliyense ukhoza kufika pamlingo womwewo. pa 0.4 yuan/Wh.

Malinga ndi kuwerengera kwa Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), mtengo waposachedwa wa 280Ah lithiamu iron phosphate energy storage cell ndi pafupifupi 0.34 yuan/Wh.Mwachiwonekere, mafakitale a batri osungira mphamvu akuyendayenda kale pamtengo wamtengo wapatali.

“Pakadali pano msika ndi wochuluka ndipo kufunikira kwake sikuli kolimba.Makampani akuchepetsa mitengo kuti apeze msika, kuphatikiza makampani ena amachotsa zinthu pamitengo yotsika, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mitengo ipitirire.Pansi pazimenezi, makampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi akupanga kale phindu laling'ono kapena kutaya ndalama.Poyerekeza ndi ma Enterprises a mzere woyamba, mabizinesi agawo lachiwiri ndi lachitatu amakhala osakhudzidwa kwambiri. ”Long Zhiqiang adatero.

Long Zhiqiang adatinso: "Ntchito yosungiramo mphamvu idzafulumizitsa kukonzanso mu 2024, ndipo makampani osungira magetsi osungira mphamvu adzawonetsa zochitika zosiyanasiyana zopulumuka.Kuyambira chaka chatha, makampaniwa awona kutsekedwa kwa ntchito komanso ngakhale kuchotsedwa.Mlingo wogwirira ntchito ndi wotsika, mphamvu zopanga sizigwira ntchito, ndipo zinthu zimatha't idzagulitsidwa, kotero idzakhala ndi mphamvu zogwirira ntchito.”

Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance ikukhulupirira kuti pansi pamakampani osungira mphamvu zatsimikiziridwa, koma zitenga nthawi kuti zithetse mphamvu zopangira ndikuyika zida.Kubwezeretsa kowonekera kwa phindu lamakampani kumadalira kuchuluka kwa kufunikira komanso kuthamanga kwa kukhathamiritsa ndikusintha mbali yoperekera.InfoLink Consulting idaneneratu kale kuti vuto la kuchuluka kwa maselo a batri lidzakhala pansi m'gawo loyamba la 2024. Kuphatikizana ndi kuganizira zamtengo wapatali, mtengo wa maselo osungira mphamvu udzakhala ndi malo ochepa otsika pansi pa nthawi yochepa.

Kusiyana kwa phindu

Pakalipano, makampani a lithiamu batire kwenikweni amayenda pamiyendo iwiri: mabatire amphamvu ndi mabatire osungira mphamvu.Ngakhale kutumizidwa kwa malo osungiramo mphamvu kwachedwa pang'ono, makampani ayika pamalo odziwika.

Mwachitsanzo, CATL ndiye "wopambana pawiri" potengera kutumiza kwa mabatire amagetsi ndi mabatire osungira mphamvu.Idazindikira kale magawo atatu ofunikira: "electrochemical energy storage + renewable energy generation", "mabatire amphamvu ndi magalimoto atsopano amphamvu" ndi "electrification + intelligence".Grand Strategic Development malangizo.M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, kuchuluka kwa batire yosungira mphamvu ndi ndalama zamakampani zikupitilira kukula, ndipo zakula mpaka ulalo wophatikizira wosungira mphamvu.BYD idalowa m'malo osungiramo mphamvu koyambirira kwa 2008 ndikulowa m'misika yakunja koyambirira.Pakalipano, batire yosungira mphamvu ya kampaniyo ndi mabizinesi adongosolo ali mu echelon yoyamba.Mu Disembala 2023, BYD idalimbitsanso mtundu wake wosungira mphamvu ndikusinthiratu dzina la Shenzhen Pingshan Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. kukhala Shenzhen BYD Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

Monga nyenyezi yomwe ikukwera pamabatire osungira mphamvu, Haichen Energy Storage yayang'ana kwambiri zamakampani osungira mphamvu kuyambira pomwe idakhazikitsidwa mu 2019 ndipo yawonetsa chitukuko champhamvu.Idakhala pakati pa mabatire apamwamba asanu osungira mphamvu m'zaka zinayi zokha.Mu 2023, Haichen Energy Storage idayamba mwalamulo njira ya IPO.

Kuphatikiza apo, Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) ikugwiritsanso ntchito njira yosungira mphamvu, yomwe“akukonzekera kukwaniritsa kukula kopitilira 50% mzaka zitatu kapena zisanu zikubwerazi, kupitilira ndalama zokwana 30 biliyoni, ndikukhala wogulitsa yemwe amakonda kwambiri pantchito yosungira mphamvu.”Mu 2022, ndalama zomwe kampani yosungiramo mphamvu zimapangira 54% ya ndalama zonse.

Masiku ano, m'malo opikisana kwambiri, zinthu monga chikoka chamtundu, ndalama, mtundu wazinthu, kukula, mtengo, ndi njira zimagwirizana ndi kupambana kapena kulephera kwamakampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi.Mu 2023, magwiridwe antchito amakampani osungira mphamvu zamagetsi adasiyana, ndipo phindu lawo lili pamavuto.

Kuchita kwamakampani a batri omwe akuyimiridwa ndi CATL, BYD ndi EV Lithium Energy onse adapitilira kukula.Mwachitsanzo, mu 2023, Ningde Times inapeza ndalama zokwana 400.91 biliyoni zogwirira ntchito, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 22.01%, ndipo phindu lopezeka ndi omwe ali ndi makampani omwe adatchulidwawo linali 44.121 biliyoni yuan, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka. 43.58 %.Pakati pawo, ndalama zomwe kampaniyo imasungira mphamvu ya batire inali 59.9 biliyoni ya yuan, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 33.17%, kuwerengera 14.94% ya ndalama zonse.Phindu lalikulu la batire yosungira mphamvu ya kampaniyo linali 23.79%, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 6.78%.

Mosiyana ndi izi, machitidwe amakampani monga Ruipu Lanjun ndi Penghui Energy amapereka chithunzi chosiyana.

Mwa iwo, Ruipu Lanjun akuneneratu kutayika kwa 1.8 biliyoni mpaka 2 biliyoni mu 2023;Penghui Energy imalosera kuti phindu lomwe limabwera chifukwa cha eni ake amakampani omwe adatchulidwa mu 2023 lidzakhala 58 miliyoni mpaka 85 miliyoni, kutsika kwachaka ndi 86.47% mpaka 90.77%.

Penghui Energy anati: "Chifukwa chakuthwa dontho la mtengo wa zinthu kumtunda lifiyamu carbonate, pamodzi ndi mpikisano msika, wagawo kugulitsa mtengo wa kampani lifiyamu batire mankhwala watsika kwambiri, amene wakhala superimposed pa zinthu destocking wa makampani kumtunda, motero zimakhudza ndalama ndi phindu;kutsitsa kwamitengo yazinthu kwachititsanso kuti zinthu zambiri zotsika mtengo zomwe zidapangidwa kumapeto kwa nthawiyo zisokoneze phindu la kampaniyo. ”

Long Zhiqiang adauza atolankhani kuti: "CATL ikuyesetsa kwambiri m'misika yam'nyumba ndi yakunja.Ubwino wake, mtundu, ukadaulo ndi kukula kwake sikungafanane ndi malonda.Zogulitsa zake zili ndi mphamvu zoyambira, 0.08-0.1 yuan/Wh kuposa za anzawo.Komanso, Komanso, kampani kukodzedwa chuma chake kumtunda ndi anasaina mgwirizano ndi makasitomala akuluakulu zoweta ndi akunja, zomwe zimapangitsa malo ake msika zovuta kugwedeza.Mosiyana ndi izi, mphamvu zonse zamabatire amagetsi achiwiri komanso achitatu akuyenera kukonzedwanso.Pali kusiyana kwakukulu pamlingo wokha, zomwe zimapangitsanso kuti mtengo wake ukhale wocheperako komanso phindu lake kukhala lofooka. ”

Mpikisano wamsika wa Brutal umayesa kupikisana kwathunthu kwa mabizinesi.Liu Jincheng, tcheyamani wa Yiwei Lithium Energy, posachedwapa anati: “Kupanga mabatire osungira mphamvu mwachibadwa kumafuna nthaŵi yaitali ndi zofunika zapamwamba kuti zikhale zabwino kwenikweni.Makasitomala otsika adzamvetsetsa mbiri ndi mbiri yamafakitale a batri.Mafakitole a batri adasiyanitsidwa kale mu 2023. , 2024 idzakhala madzi;momwe chuma cha mafakitale a mabatire chidzakhalanso chofunikira kwa makasitomala.Makampani omwe amatengera mwachimbuli njira zotsika mtengo adzapeza zovuta kugonjetsa makampani otsogola omwe ali ndi magawo apamwamba opanga.Mtengo wa voliyumu sinkhondo yayikulu, ndipo ndi yosakhazikika.”

Mtolankhaniyo adawona kuti mumsika wamakono wamakono, ngakhale kuti phindu likupitirizabe kupanikizika, makampani osungira mphamvu amakhalabe ndi ziyembekezo zosiyana pa zolinga zamalonda.

Liu Jincheng adawulula kuti cholinga cha bizinesi cha Yiwei Lithium Energy mu 2024 ndikulima mwamphamvu ndikubweza tinthu tosungiramo zinthu, ndikuyembekeza kuti fakitale iliyonse yomwe idamangidwa ikhoza kupeza phindu.Pakati pawo, ponena za mabatire osungira mphamvu, tidzayesetsa kupititsa patsogolo kusanja chaka chino ndi chaka chamawa, ndipo kuyambira chaka chino, tidzawonjezera pang'onopang'ono chiwerengero cha Pack (paketi ya batri) ndi dongosolo.

Ruipu Lanjun adanenapo kale kuti amakhulupirira kuti kampaniyo ikhoza kupeza phindu ndikupanga ndalama zogwirira ntchito mu 2025. Kuphatikiza pa kusintha mitengo yamtengo wapatali, kampaniyo idzakwaniritsa zolinga zake mwa kupititsa patsogolo kupanga bwino, kupititsa patsogolo luso lake lotha kuyankha kusinthasintha kwa ndalama zopangira, kuchulukitsa ndalama zogulitsa, ndikupanga chuma chambiri.