Qhov tseeb, "kev mus pw hav zoov kub taub hau" tau nyob ib puag ncig rau ntau xyoo.Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm IMedia Consulting qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 2021, lub lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam mus pw hav zoov tau txog 74.75 billion yuan (RMB, tib yam li hauv qab no), nrog rau kev loj hlob ib xyoos ib zaug ntawm 62.5%;Kev lag luam loj hlob mus txog 381.23 billion yuan, nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm 59%.Nws xav tias nyob rau hauv 2025, lub lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam mus pw hav zoov yuav nce mus txog 248.32 billion yuan, thiab cov lag luam cuam tshuam yuav ncav cuag 1,440.28 billion yuan.

 

Ntawm lawv, "qhov chaw pw hav zoov" nrog cov hluav taws kub yog "sab nraum zoov fais fab mov" (lub npe hu ua "portable zog cia fais fab mov") cov khoom no.

Sab nraum zoov fais fab mov yog lub chaw nres tsheb me me nrog lub roj teeb lithium-ion built-in thiab tuaj yeem khaws nws tus kheej hluav taws xob.Nws yog sib npaug rau lub txhab nyiaj loj them nyiaj.Tam sim no, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraud ntawm lub khw muag khoom tuaj yeem ncav cuag 3000W, uas tuaj yeem yooj yim tsav txhua yam khoom siv hluav taws xob mus pw hav zoov thiab ua tau raws li qhov xav tau hluav taws xob ntawm cov neeg nyiam mus pw hav zoov rau ob peb hnub.

Raws li qhov no, hauv 2021, Tmall tshaj tawm cov npe ntawm kaum sab saum toj cov khoom ntawm "Ob chav 11" hauv lub xyoo.Hauv 2022, "Tmall May Day Consumption Trend Report" cov ntaub ntawv tau qhia tias xyoo 2022, kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov ntawm lub platform tau nce ntau dua ob zaug piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm 3 xyoo dhau los yog ntau dua. 300%.

Hauv 2023, kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov txuas ntxiv. "Magic Mirror Analysis +" cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias txij Lub Xya Hli 2022 txog rau Lub Rau Hli 2023, tag nrho cov kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog sab nraum zoov hauv cov lag luam e-lag luam loj tau mus txog 1.434 billion yuan, nrog rau ib xyoos. - xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 142.94%.

Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov los ntawm "kev mus pw hav zoov" cov nyiaj faib kub, nyob rau xyoo tas los no hauv kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev, hauv kev lag luam txawv teb chaws, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov tau "gallop" rau ntau xyoo.

Daim Ntawv Qhia Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Txhim Kho ntawm Tuam Tshoj Portable Zog Cia Kev Lag Luam tso tawm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Chemical thiab Lub Cev Hluav Taws Xob Hluav Taws Xob Kev Lag Luam Koom Tes hauv xyoo 2021 qhia tias Tuam Tshoj lub zog txuag hluav taws xob yog ib qho kev lag luam uas muaj cov yam ntxwv zoo rau kev xa tawm.Tag nrho cov kev lag luam muaj ntau tshaj li 90% ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm thiab xa tawm, thiab nws yog lub ntiaj teb cov chaw tsim khoom loj thiab xa tawm ntawm lub zog txuag hluav taws xob.

Hauv lwm lo lus, piv rau kev lag luam hauv tsev thaum ntxov, kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws yog lub lag luam tseem ceeb sab nraum zoov.

01 Nrov "loj them lub txhab nyiaj"

Jackery Cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv North America, Europe thiab Nyiv thiab lwm lub teb chaws cov kab lis kev cai thiab cheeb tsam, cov neeg nyiam mus pw hav zoov muaj kev xav ntau dua rau lub sijhawm ntev.Piv txwv li, cov neeg nyiam mus pw hav zoov Nyij Pooj tau mob siab rau ob hnub thiab ib hmos ntawm kev mus pw hav zoov, thiab lawv yuav siv tsis tau lub xov tooj ntawm tes, laptops thiab lwm yam khoom siv hluav taws xob thaum lawv mus pw hav zoov.

Qhov tshwm sim ntawm lithium sab nraum zoov fais fab mov tau ua rau lawv cov chaw pw tau yooj yim dua.

Nrog cua ntawm kev mus pw hav zoov kab lis kev cai tshuab rov qab los tsev, cov tub ntxhais hluas tam sim ntawd nyiam txoj kev ua neej nyob sab nraum zoov.

Nyob rau hauv Beijing kev ua koob tsheej, kuv thiab kuv cov phooj ywg npaj yuav mus pw hav zoov ib puag ncig tom qab lub Mid-Autumn Festival, "Lub Mid-Autumn Festival yog thawj hnub ntawm hnub so, kuv cov phooj ywg thiab kuv npaj yuav mus tsev nrog kuv tsev neeg nyob rau hauv. thawj peb hnub ntawm hnub so, thiab tom qab ntawd qhov tsis ncaj ncees lawm ncov rov qab mus rau Beijing, rov qab mus rau Beijing, ob peb tus phooj ywg yuav mus pw hav zoov los so. "

Thiab txhawm rau txhim kho kev mus pw hav zoov zoo heev, cov cuab yeej siv yog qhov tsis tseem ceeb. "Lub ntuj, tsev pheeb suab, noj mov MATS, rooj thiab lub rooj zaum, cov no yog txhua yam tsim nyog, incubators, qhov cub, cov khoom noj qab haus huv kuj tsim nyog rau kev noj mov sab nraum zoov. "Qingqing ua tib zoo xam, lub kev txiav txim siab yog tias cov khoom siv camping yuav tsum muaj ntau tshaj li txaus los sau lub cev.

Thaum lub sij hawm, qing qing, hmoov zoo kuv lub tsev yog lub tsheb tshiab lub zog, muaj qhov tso tawm tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob them nyiaj thiab siv, lossis lawv yuav xav txog cov khoom siv camping nrog lub zog sab nraum zoov, "xyoo tas los, kuv muab ntau lub npe nrov. ntawm sab nraum lub zog thiab kev yuav khoom, tab sis tus nqi ntawm ntau txhiab yuan lossis cia kuv tsis tuaj yeem ua tiav. "

Txawm hais tias Qingqing tsis tau yuav cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov vim qhov tsawg zaus ntawm kev siv, tus nqi kim thiab lwm yam, tab sis nrog kev nce ntawm "kev mus pw hav zoov kub taub hau", kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov tau nce ntxiv, nyob rau xyoo tas los no, ntau tus neeg siv khoom yuav. sab nraum zoov fais fab mov.

Peng Peng, uas tseem npaj mus pw hav zoov sab nraum zoov nrog nws tsev neeg thaum hnub so National, hais tias, "Peb tsis tau sim mus pw hav zoov ua ntej, thiab peb mus ntsib phooj ywg teb.Lub sijhawm no, peb npaj mus ncig ntawm peb tus kheej, thiab peb xav yuav txhua yam khoom siv uas peb siv thaum mus pw hav zoov. yooj yim dua. "

Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, nyob rau hauv lub qhov muag ntawm cov neeg siv feem ntau, sab nraum zoov fais fab mov tsis yog ib tug high-tech plaything, nws yog ib tug built-in siab zog ceev lithium ion roj teeb, muaj peev xwm muab ib tug ruaj khov AC / DC voltage tso zis zog system, nruab nrog ntau yam. ntawm interfaces, dav siv nyob rau hauv sab nraum zoov mus txawv tebchaws, npaj thaum muaj xwm ceev thiab lwm yam scenarios.

Piv nrog rau "them nyiaj hauv txhab nyiaj", cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov tsis yog tsuas yog txhawb nqa DC cov zis, tab sis kuj tuaj yeem tig lub zog mus rau 220V AC, tuaj yeem muab ntau tus lej thiab cov khoom siv tib lub sijhawm, thiab tseem tuaj yeem siv cov hnub ci them hluav taws xob los khaws hluav taws xob. thaum muaj xwm ceev.

Kev lag luam kev lag luam tsis siab, uas txiav txim siab tias cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tsuas yog yuav tsum tau yuav cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov, xws li cov hlwb, cov hnub ci vaj huam sib luag, inverter, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab lwm yam, thiab tom qab ntawd ua tiav cov khoom sib xws thiab kev ua haujlwm. .

Los yog vim li no, cov neeg tuaj koom kuj tau tshwm sim.Cov lus nug tshwm sim ntawm "kev lag luam xyuas" qhia tau hais tias los ntawm 2022, tus naj npawb ntawm cov lag luam hauv tsev suav nrog "cov khoom siv hluav taws xob khaws cia hluav taws xob" yog 399, nce ntawm 46 piv nrog 353 thaum kawg ntawm 2021.

Cov ntaub ntawv ntawm "Magic Mirror Analysis +" qhia tau hais tias lub ntsiab e-lag luam platform sab nraum zoov lub hwj chim hom nyob rau sab saum toj hom yog EcoFlow, Dianxiao 2, Lub Hnub Qub Zhao Blue, Tshiab Chi Shi, Bull thiab lwm yam. Tsis tsuas yog EcoFlow, hluav taws xob. me me ob thiab lwm qhov sib sib zog nqus plowing portable zog cia chaw tsim khoom, tab sis kuj cov tuam txhab tsoos xws li Bull hla mus rau hauv qhov kev ua si.

Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, muaj ib hom khoom lag luam nyob hauv Guangdong lossis Shandong sab nraum zoov fais fab chaw tsim khoom, xws li XinChi Shi, Sheng Xinlong, Weifan, Ran yong, thiab lwm yam, txawm hais tias hom hom no tsis yog EcoFlow, hluav taws xob me me ob lub koob npe nrov. , tab sis nws cov khoom muag ib leeg yog siab heev.

02 Kev lag luam txawv teb chaws loj dua li kev lag luam hauv tsev

Tsis muaj qhov tsis ntseeg tias lub zog sab nraum zoov tau dhau los ua dej hiav txwv xiav tshiab, thiab cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov tau nyob hauv "lub ntiaj teb theem".

Raws li Sab Nraud Consumer Electronics Trends Report, lub ntiaj teb no portable fais fab mov loj hlob ntawm ib tug compound txhua xyoo kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm 148% los ntawm 2016 txog 2021, thiab thoob ntiaj teb thiab Suav cov khoom xa tuaj yuav tsum ncav cuag 31.1 lab units thiab 28.67 lab units raws li 2026.

Xu Jiqiang, tus thawj saib xyuas ntawm Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa khoom hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov tam sim no suav nrog ntau dua 90% ntawm lub ntiaj teb.Nws tau kwv yees tias nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb txhua xyoo tuaj yeem ncav cuag ntau dua 30 lab units, thiab kev lag luam loj yog kwv yees li 80 billion yuan.

Hauv lwm lo lus, cuaj ntawm lub ntiaj teb 10 cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov yog tsim nyob rau hauv Suav teb.

Piv nrog rau kev mus pw hav zoov hauv tsev, uas tsuas yog nce hauv xyoo tas los no, kev siv hluav taws xob sab nraum zoov hauv kev ua lag luam txawv teb chaws tau pom tseeb siv ntau yam, thiab kev lag luam sib xws yog dav dua li kev lag luam hauv tsev.

Rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob khaws cia nrog lub peev xwm ntawm kwv yees li 100-3,000 W, kev ua si sab nraum zoov thiab kev npaj thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm daim ntawv thov scenarios.Hauv kev ua si sab nraum zoov, nws tuaj yeem muab lub zog rau cov xov tooj ntse, ntsiav tshuaj, drones, projectors thiab lwm yam khoom siv.Hauv kev npaj thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev, nws tuaj yeem daws cov teeb meem tsis txaus los ntawm kev puas tsuaj hauv thaj chaw uas muaj kev puas tsuaj ntuj xws li av qeeg, tsunami thiab cua daj cua dub.

Tsis tas li ntawd raws li cov ntawv thov scenarios, nyob rau hauv qhov kev pom ntawm kev lag luam, sab nraum zoov fais fab mov "natural" kom phim lub lag luam txawv teb chaws.

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Tuam Tshoj Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, raws li cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom ntawm lub zog sab nraum zoov xyoo 2020, Tebchaws Asmeskas yog lub ntiaj teb daim ntawv thov kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws rau kev khaws cia lub zog, feem ntau yog vim muaj kev sib koom ua ke sab nraum zoov ntawm Asmeskas. cov neeg siv, ze rau 50%, thiab hauv 2020, daim ntawv thov feem ntau hauv ntiaj teb yuav ncav cuag 47.3%.

Qhov thib ob yog Nyij Pooj, uas suav txog 29.6% ntawm cov ntawv thov hauv ntiaj teb kev teb thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev, feem ntau yog vim muaj av qeeg thiab lwm yam kev puas tsuaj hauv Nyij Pooj, thiab qhov kev thov siab rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thaum muaj xwm ceev.

Hauv Tebchaws Europe, Canada thiab lwm qhov chaw, qhov kev thov tseem ceeb tseem yog kev ua si sab nraum zoov thiab thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev, tab sis vim yog European xaiv cov tsheb kauj vab thiab lwm txoj hauv kev mus ncig, qhov kev thov rau lub zog txuag hluav taws xob tsawg dua.

Nyob rau hauv luv luv, piv nrog lub domestic subdivision ntawm khiav, mus rau lub hiav txwv tej zaum yuav yog txoj kev zoo tagnrho rau sab nraum zoov fais fab hom.

Los ntawm txoj kev xav ntawm kev lag luam saw, ntau qhov kev sib txuas yog neeg coob nrog cov lag luam hauv tsev.Raws li Daim Ntawv Qhia Tshwj Xeeb ntawm Portable Energy Storage Industry tso tawm los ntawm CITIC Securities, tam sim no, lub ntiaj teb portable zog cia kev lag luam saw, xws li cov roj teeb hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab kev sib koom ua ke nruab nrab hauv Suav teb.Feem ntau ntawm cov lag luam downstream yog cov lag luam hauv Suav teb, thiab cov kab hauv qab feem ntau yog hla ciam teb e-lag luam.

Thiab yog li ntawd nws yog.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm EcoFlow, hauv Amazon Hnub Prime Hnub hauv Lub Xya Hli 2022, kev muag khoom ntawm Zhenghao EcoFlow mus txog 159 lab yuan hauv ob hnub, cov khoom muag hauv North America tau nce 450% xyoo rau xyoo thiab Nyiv nce 400% xyoo rau xyoo. .

 

Warburg Tshiab Zog, tus thawj coj nyob rau hauv portable zog cia kev lag luam, tau txais lub tswv yim ntawm kev tsim kho nyob rau hauv lub domestic thiab txawv teb chaws kev lag luam ib txhij.Nws tau tsim lub teb chaws ywj pheej hom "Electric Er" thiab thoob ntiaj teb hom "Jackery", thiab ua tiav tag nrho cov txheej txheem ntawm "hauv tsev + txawv teb chaws" thiab "online + offline".

Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev lag luam qauv, lub ntiaj teb portable zog cia kev lag luam yog heev concentrated, nrog CR5 cov nyiaj tau los accounting rau 50%.Txawm li cas los xij, rau kev ua lag luam hauv tsev, kev lag luam portable zog cia tseem nyob rau theem ntawm ntau hom "kev tsis sib haum xeeb".Nrog rau kev txhim kho ntxiv ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntxiv, kev lag luam nkag mus ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob khaws cia yuav nce ntxiv, thiab qhov chaw ua lag luam yog dav.

Kuv ntseeg hais tias nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm sab nraum zoov fais fab mov, peb muaj peev xwm mus txuas ntxiv noj cov kev loj hlob nyiaj faib nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj.