Ua ke nrog cov xwm txheej tam sim no ntawm overcapacity thiab kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic hauv 2023, peb txoj kev loj hlob hauv qab no yuav tsim nyob rau xyoo 2024, cuam tshuam rau kev loj hlob mus ntev ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic:

1) Technology coj txoj kev thiab mus dhau lub voj voog.Hauv qab ntawm cov voj voog yav dhau los tau nrog cov kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis, thiab kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis tuaj yeem paub txog thawj lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm kev txo nqi thiab nce kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic;

2) Nws yog lub sijhawm los nthuav tawm txawv teb chaws.Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev xav tau hauv tsev qeeb, cov tuam txhab yuav twv yuav raug hu nrhiav ntau txoj hauv kev lag luam kom tshem tawm cov peev txheej ntau dhau.Yog tias muaj cov hauv kev rau kev sib koom ua ke, kev yuav khoom thiab kev tsim kho dua tshiab, lawv tuaj yeem ua kom lub ntiaj teb ua kom muaj kev vam meej;

3) Kev loj hlob zoo ntawm kev txhawb zog tshiab thiab cov khoom siv.Kev lag luam hauv kev tsim kho ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob tau cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev faib khoom muaj peev xwm, ua rau kev xav tau qis dua.Kev txhim kho yog xav tias yuav nrawm dua hauv 24 xyoo.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lub zog cia, raws li qhov chaw txhawb nqa tseem ceeb, kuj xav tias yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm qhov no.

1. Photovoltaic kev lag luam saw khoom thiab kev xav tau tsom xam

1.1 Sab hauv txoj cai nquag qhia txog kev txhim kho zoo ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic

Txoj cai sab nquag teb rau qhov kev poob qis los ntawm kev nthuav dav sai ntawm photovoltaic muaj peev xwm.Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov nrawm ntawm IPOs thiab cov nyiaj rov qab yuav raug nruj rau hauv theem los tswj kev nthuav dav sai ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic.Qee cov neeg ua si tshiab thiab cov tuam txhab uas tsis muaj nyiaj txaus yuav raug txwv ncaj qha.Lub tuam txhab tus kheej lub peev xwm hematopoietic tseem ceeb dua.Kev lag luam concentration yuav tsum nce ntxiv thiab kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes yuav ua kom zoo ntxiv.Ntawm qhov tod tes, kev tsim khoom lag luam symposium tsom rau kev txhim kho zoo ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic, coj thiab txhawb nqa kev lag luam thev naus laus zis tshiab thiab kev tsim qauv tsim ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam muaj peev xwm ntau lawm.

Tsis tas li ntawd, kuv lub teb chaws kev lag luam photovoltaic yog nyob ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, qhov ntsuas ntawm kev xa tawm tau loj dua qhov ntsuas ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev.Txawm li cas los xij, US txoj cai tariff rau imported photovoltaic cov khoom tau hloov ntau zaus, xws li kev tiv thaiv kev tshawb nrhiav thiab kev siv UFLPA.Kev tsim kom muaj kev pom zoo ntawm kev koom tes hauv kev txhim kho tau xa ib qho teeb meem zoo rau kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom xa tawm photovoltaic.

1.2 Kev Muag Khoom: Lub tuam txhab tau txo qis nws qhov kev nthuav dav zuj zus thiab muaj peev nyiaj txaus.

Lub tuam txhab txwv nws txoj kev nthuav dav thiab maj mam optimizes nws cov khoom-sab qauv.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Oriental Fortune, nyob rau hauv thawj thiab thib ob peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, 60 tuam txhab uas muag nyob rau hauv lub photovoltaic kev lag luam pib refinancing nrog ib tug nruab nrab peb lub hlis twg ntawm ntau tshaj 100 billion yuan.Ntawm lawv, 45 lub tuam txhab sau npe tau nce 115.8 billion yuan los ntawm kev tshaj tawm ntxiv, thiab 11 lub tuam txhab tau muab cov nyiaj hloov pauv tau los nce 53.1 billion yuan.Yuan, 3 cov khoom lag luam tshiab tau teev tseg thiab nce 4.659 billion yuan;Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Polaris Hnub Ci Photovoltaic Network, thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom siv silicon ntau lawm yuav ncav cuag 760,000 tons, qhov ntsuas ntawm silicon wafers yuav ncav cuag 442GW, thiab cov nplai ntawm cov hlwb thiab cov khoom yuav ncav cuag 1,100GW.Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nyiaj txiag thiab kev nthuav dav ntawm photovoltaic tuam txhab uas muag tau nyob rau hauv tag nrho viav vias.

Txawm li cas los xij, raws li cov xwm txheej xws li cov khoom siv silicon maj mam dhau mus, qhov nrawm nrawm ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ntau dhau ntawm TOPCon hlwb, kev poob qis ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov saw hlau lag luam, kev poob qis hauv kev thov kev loj hlob, thiab cov theem nruj ntawm IPO thiab refinancing, kev lag luam peev pib txias, thiab kev lag luam photovoltaic muaj txij li Lub quarter thib peb tau pom muaj qhov pom tseeb ntawm kev txhim kho ntawm cov khoom siv.Piv txwv li, nyob rau lub quarter thib peb, cov nyiaj txiag ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic tsawg dua 50 billion yuan;Raws li ntawm Q3, txiav txim los ntawm qhov tseeb kev nce qib ntawm kev lag luam tshaj tawm cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav, tag nrho cov kev sib txuas hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic tau poob qis txij li xyoo 2023. Kev nce qib ntawm qee qhov haujlwm mus txog kev tsim khoom yog qeeb qeeb dua li qhov xav tau.Nws cia siab tias qhov kev lag luam tag nrho txaus siab los nthuav ntau lawm yuav poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2024.

1.3 Kev Xav Tau: Q4 Cov khoom siv hauv tsev tau nce siab, thaum xa tawm tus nqi thiab ntsuas ob qho tib si tsis kam.

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, qhov ntsuas ntawm kev sib tw hauv tsev tau nce ntau xyoo-rau-xyoo.Raws li Gaisi Consulting cov ntaub ntawv, lub domestic module kev sib tw ntsuas nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023 yog 295.85GW, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 90%;qhov module yeej kev sib tw yog 463.50GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 219.3%, ntawm qhov uas cov qauv kev sib tw hauv lub Cuaj Hli yog 56.2GW, ib hlis-rau-hli nce 50.7%, thiab module yeej qhov ntsuas yog 39.1 GW, ib hlis-rau-hli poob ntawm 35.8%.

Cov khoom thov yuav tsum poob qis hauv lub quarter thib plaub, nrog rau N tivthaiv kev yuav khoom rau ntau tshaj ib nrab.Raws li SMM cov ntaub ntawv, N-hom module calibration pom kev loj hlob tawg txij lub Cuaj Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Hli 2023, nrog rau qhov ntsuas ntsuas ntau tshaj 20GW.Ntawm lawv, cov qauv kev yuav khoom hauv lub Kaum Hli yog 22.91GW, thiab N-hom module kev yuav khoom yog 53%.Vim yog thawj-mover kom zoo dua ntawm TOPCon thev naus laus zis, nws tau suav txog ntau dua 70% ntawm qhov kev sib koom ua tiav hauv kev sib tw thiab kev yuav khoom hauv nruab nrab ntawm qee lub tuam txhab hauv nruab nrab thiab hauv xeev, qhia tias qhov sib txawv ntawm N-hom roj teeb hloov P- hom roj teeb yog maj mam noj cov duab.Raws li cov nqi hauv kev lag luam txuas txuas ntxiv poob qis, qhov kev thov module yuav tsum qis dua qhov xav tau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, nrog rau cov khoom muag digestion yog thawj qhov tseem ceeb, tab sis N-hom modules tseem yuav suav rau qhov feem ntau.

Tshiab centralized ntsia muaj peev xwm yuav tsum muaj kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub.Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Lub Kaum Hli 2023, kuv lub teb chaws tau teeb tsa lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab yog 142.6GW, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 145%.Ntawm lawv, lub peev xwm tshiab tsim nyob rau lub Kaum Hli yog 13.6GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 142%, thiab ib hlis-rau-hli poob ntawm 14%.Yog vim li cas rau qhov txo qis yuav yog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov hnub so.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov qauv tsim muaj peev xwm, faib cov peev txheej tau tshaj 50% hauv xyoo 2023, thiab lub peev xwm nruab nrab nruab nrab tau nce nrawm xyoo-rau-xyoo.Ntawm lawv, Q3 faib cov peev txheej yog 26.2GW, suav txog 51.8%, thiab nruab nrab nruab nrab muaj peev xwm yog 24.3GW, suav txog 48.2%.Raws li tus nqi nyob rau hauv ntau yam kev sib txuas hauv kev lag luam saw txuas ntxiv tsis ntev los no, lub peev xwm nruab nrab hauv nruab nrab yuav tsum muaj kev loj hlob txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis.

Photovoltaic cov khoom xa tawm ob qho tib si poob qis hauv tus nqi thiab teev nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis.Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Hli 2023, kuv lub teb chaws tus nqi xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic (silicon rods, silicon wafers, hlwb, modules) yog US $ 43.766 billion, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 2.6%.Ntawm lawv, tus nqi xa tawm nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis tag nrho yog US $ 3.094 billion, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 24.7%.Lub hli-rau-hli poob yog 19.2%, qhov qis tshaj hauv ib hlis hauv ob xyoos dhau los.Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog tias lub hauv paus siab xyoo tas los ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua hauv qee thaj tsam.

Raws li InfoLink cov ntaub ntawv, kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom lag luam tsim tawm los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Hli 2023 yog 174.1 GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 30.6%.Ntawm lawv, cov qauv xa tawm hauv lub Kaum Hlis yog 16.5 GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 39.8%, thiab ib hlis-rau-hli poob ntawm 16.7%.Hauv ob lub hlis dhau los ntawm lub xyoo no, vim muaj cov hnub so txawv teb chaws thiab cov khoom lag luam siab, nws xav tias ob qho tib si export ntim thiab nplai yuav poob qis.

Qhov loj ntawm cov khoom raug rub nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tuaj yeem ua rau kev poob qis hauv kev thov hauv European lag luam hauv lub quarter thib plaub.Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Hli 2023, tsib lub teb chaws saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom xa tawm yog Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, Is Nrias teb, thiab Saudi Arabia.Ntawm lawv, kev xa tawm ntim ntawm lub tebchaws xws li Saudi Arabia thiab Belgium tau nce ntau xyoo-rau-xyoo.Kev lag luam nyob sab Europe tam sim no yog ib lub tebchaws tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom lag luam photovoltaic xa tawm.Txij Lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Hli, Tebchaws Europe tau xa tawm tag nrho ntawm 91.6GW ntawm photovoltaic modules, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 22.6%.Ntawm lawv, Tuam Tshoj tau xa tawm 6.2GW ntawm European photovoltaic modules nyob rau lub Kaum Hli, ib xyoos-rau-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 10%.Qhov 18% txo qis feem ntau yog los ntawm kev sib sau ntawm cov khoom muag los ntawm cov khoom loj hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no.Nws cia siab tias qhov kev thov tag nrho hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav poob qis heev nyob rau lub quarter thib plaub ntawm cov tsoos off-season.

Nyob rau hauv 2023, kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no thiab Tuam Tshoj xav tias yuav ntaus lub siab tshiab, thiab kev loj hlob tus nqi yuav tsum poob sharply nyob rau hauv 24-25 xyoo.Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Lub Kaum Hli xyoo no, kuv lub teb chaws qhov kev tsim kho tshiab photovoltaic muaj peev xwm mus txog 142.56GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 144.78%.Ntawm lawv, lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab nyob rau lub Kaum Hli yog 13.62GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 141.49%.