I kēia mau lā, ua hoʻokuʻu ka hui kūkākūkā honua ʻo SNE Research i ka ʻikepili o ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka ikehu mālama honua i ka makahiki 2023 a me ka papa inoa hoʻouna ʻana o ka ʻoihana hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka ikehu lithium, e ʻimi ana i ka mākeke.

Hōʻike nā ʻikepili pili i ka hoʻouna ʻana o ka pā uila mālama honua i ka 185GWh i ka makahiki i hala, he piʻi makahiki ma kahi o 53%.Ke nānā nei i ka ʻumi kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā pā uila uila ma 2023, noho nā hui Kina i ʻewalu mau noho, e helu ana ma kahi o 90% o nā hoʻouna.E kū'ē i ke kumu o ka overcapacity manawa, ua hoʻouna ʻia nā ʻoki kumukūʻai i nā mea maka i luna, hoʻonui ʻia nā kaua kumukūʻai superimposed, a piʻi aʻe ka neʻe ʻana o ka mākeke pākaukau mālama ikehu.ʻO CATL wale nō (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), a me Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 .SZ), Ruipu Lanjun (0666.HK), a me Haichen Energy Storage, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke o nā hui alakaʻi ʻelima ma mua o 75% .

I nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ua hoʻololi koke ʻia ka mākeke pākaukau mālama ikehu.ʻO ka mea i ʻike ʻia ma ke ʻano he hoʻohaʻahaʻa waiwai e hakakā ʻia nei, ua lilo ia i moana ʻulaʻula o ka hoʻokūkū haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, me nā hui e makemake e hoʻokūkū no ka māhele mākeke honua ma nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa.Eia nō naʻe, ma muli o ka hiki ʻole o ka mana o ke kumu kūʻai o nā ʻoihana like ʻole, e hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ka hana ʻana o nā ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ma 2023.Ua hoʻokō kekahi mau ʻoihana i ka ulu ʻana, aʻo nā mea ʻē aʻe i hāʻule i loko o ka emi ʻana a i ʻole nā ​​poho.Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka ʻoihana, ʻo 2024 kahi wai wai koʻikoʻi a he makahiki koʻikoʻi no ka hoʻolalelale ʻana i ke ola o ka mea kūpono a me ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana i ke ʻano o ka mākeke puʻupuʻu ikehu.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Long Zhiqiang, kahi mea noiʻi nui ma Xinchen Information, i loko o kahi ninaninau me kahi mea hoʻolaha mai China Business News e loaʻa liʻiliʻi ana nā ʻoihana mālama uila i kēia manawa a i ʻole ke nalowale kālā.No ka mea, ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka hoʻokūkū piha ʻana o nā ʻoihana papa mua a loaʻa i kā lākou huahana nā mana premium, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻoihana ʻelua a me ke kolu i nā ʻōlelo huaʻōlelo, no laila ʻokoʻa kā lākou hana waiwai.

Ke kaumaha o ke kumu kūʻai

I ka makahiki 2023, me ka ulu ʻana o ka ikehu hou i hoʻokomo ʻia a me ka hāʻule ʻana o ke kumu kūʻai o ka wai lithium carbonate, e ulu wikiwiki ana ka mākeke mālama ikehu honua, a laila e hoʻonui ai i ka noi no nā pihi mālama ikehu.Eia nō naʻe, me kēia, ua komo ka mana o ka hana ʻana i ka ikehu i ka manawa o ke koena ma muli o ka hoʻonui wikiwiki ʻana o ka hana ʻana e nā mea pāʻani hou a kahiko.

Wahi a ka wanana a InfoLink Consulting, kokoke i ka 3,400GWh i ka 2024, ka nui o nā pūnaewele mālama ikehu no 22%, a hiki i 750GWh.I ka manawa like, e ulu ana ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā kelepona mālama ikehu e 35% i 2024, a hiki i 266GWh.Hiki ke ʻike ʻia ʻo ke koi a me ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā pūnaewele mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ke kūlike ʻole.

Ua haʻi aku ʻo Long Zhiqiang i ka poʻe nūhou: "I kēia manawa, ua hiki i ka 500GWh ka nui o ka ikehu hoʻolaʻa kelepona, akā ʻo ka koi maoli o ka ʻoihana i kēia makahiki he paʻakikī ke hiki i 300GWh.I kēia hihia, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hana ma mua o 200GWh.

ʻO ka hoʻonui nui ʻana o ka hiki ke hana o nā ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ka hopena o nā kumu he nui.I ka pōʻaiapili o ka wikiwiki i ke kalapona neutrality, ua piʻi wikiwiki ka ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu me ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka mākeke mana mana hou.Ke holo nei nā mea pāʻani ma waena o nā palena, e holo wikiwiki ana no ka hana a kaʻana like, a makemake nā mea āpau e loaʻa kahi ʻāpana o ka pai.Ma ka manawa like, ua noʻonoʻo kekahi mau aupuni kūloko i ka ʻoihana pākaukau lithium ma ke ʻano he mea nui o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ka hoʻopukapuka kālā, ka huki ʻana i nā ʻoihana pākaukau mālama ikehu ma o nā haʻawina, nā kulekele makemake, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe e kākoʻo i ka hoʻokō ʻana i nā papahana.Eia kekahi, me ke kōkua o ke kapikala, ua hoʻonui hou aku nā ʻoihana pākaukau mālama ikehu i ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻonui ʻana ma o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka noiʻi a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana, ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka mana hana, a me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ke kūkulu ʻana i ke kahawai.

E kū'ē i ke kumu o ka overcapacity manawa, ua hōʻike ke kumukūʻai holoʻokoʻa o ke kaulahao o ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu i ke ʻano i lalo mai 2023. I ka piʻi ʻana o ke kaua kumukūʻai ma luna o nā kumukūʻai lithium carbonate, ua hāʻule pū ke kumukūʻai o nā pūnaewele mālama ikehu mai kahi haʻahaʻa ma lalo o 1. yuan/Wh i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2023 i lalo o 0.35 yuan/Wh.Nui ka hāʻule ʻana a hiki ke kapa ʻia he "ʻoki kuli".

Ua haʻi ʻo Long Zhiqiang i ka poʻe nūhou: "I ka makahiki 2024, ua hōʻike ke kumukūʻai o ka lithium carbonate i kahi loli a piʻi aʻe, akā ʻaʻole i loli nui ke ʻano iho o nā kumukūʻai kelepona.I kēia manawa, ua hāʻule ke kumu kūʻai o ka pākaukau holoʻokoʻa ma kahi o 0.35 yuan / Wh, pono e hilinaʻi ʻia i nā kumu e like me ka nui o ke kauoha, nā hiʻohiʻona noi, a me ka ikaika piha o nā ʻoihana kelepona, hiki i ke kumukūʻai o kēlā me kēia hui ke hiki i ka pae. o 0.4 yuan/Wh.

E like me ka helu ʻana e Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM), ʻo ke kumukūʻai o kēia manawa o kahi 280Ah lithium iron phosphate energy storage cell ma kahi o 0.34 yuan/Wh.ʻIke loa, ke kau nei nā ʻoihana pākaukau mālama ikehu i ka laina kumu kūʻai.

"I kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke a ʻaʻole ikaika ka noi.Ke ʻoki nei nā ʻoihana i nā kumukūʻai no ka hopu ʻana i ka mākeke, me kekahi mau ʻoihana e hoʻomaʻemaʻe ana i nā waihona waiwai ma nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa, a ua hoʻohaʻahaʻa hou i nā kumukūʻai.Ma lalo o kēia kūlana, ke hana nei nā ʻoihana pākaukau mālama ikehu i nā waiwai liʻiliʻi a i ʻole ke nalowale kālā.Hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā ʻoihana laina mua, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā huaʻōlelo huahana o nā ʻoihana lua a me ke kolu.Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Long Zhiqiang.

Ua ʻōlelo pū ʻo Long Zhiqiang: "E hoʻolalelale ka ʻoihana mālama mālama i ka reshuffling i ka makahiki 2024, a e hōʻike nā ʻoihana pākaukau mālama ikehu i nā kūlana ola like ʻole.Mai ka makahiki i hala aku nei, ua ʻike ka ʻoihana i ka pani ʻana o ka hana a me nā layoffs.He haʻahaʻa ka helu hana, hana ʻole ka hana, a me nā huahana hiki iā ia't e kuai ia, pela no ia e amo maoli i ke kaomi hana.”

Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻo Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance ua hoʻoholo ʻia ka lalo o ka ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, akā e mau ana ka manawa e hoʻomaʻemaʻe i ka mana hana a me ka ʻeli ʻana i ka waihona.ʻO ka loaʻa ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana e pili ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka noi a me ka wikiwiki o ka optimization a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻana ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻolako.Ua wānana mua ʻo InfoLink Consulting e hoʻemi ʻia ka pilikia overcapacity o nā pūnaewele pākaukau i ka hapaha mua o 2024. I hui pū ʻia me ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i nā kumu kūʻai waiwai, e kaupalena ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā keena mālama ikehu i ka manawa pōkole.

Hoʻokaʻawale waiwai

I kēia manawa, hele wāwae nā hui pākaukau lithium ma nā wāwae ʻelua: nā pihi mana a me nā pihi mālama ikehu.ʻOiai ua lohi iki ka hoʻolaha ʻana o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, ua kau nā ʻoihana i kahi kūlana koʻikoʻi.

No ka laʻana, ʻo CATL ka "poʻokela pālua" ma ke ʻano o ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā pihi mana a me nā pihi mālama ikehu.Ua ʻike mua ʻo ia i ʻekolu mau wahi koʻikoʻi: "ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu electrochemical + ka hana hou ʻana o ka ikehu", "nā pihi mana a me nā kaʻa ikehu hou" a me "electrification + intelligence".Kuhikuhi hoʻomohala nui.I nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ua hoʻomau ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu a me ka loaʻa kālā, a ua hoʻonui hou ʻia i ka loulou hoʻohui pūnaehana mālama ikehu.Ua komo ʻo BYD i ka māla mālama ikehu ma mua o 2008 a komo mua i nā mākeke o waho.I kēia manawa, ʻo ka ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu a me nā ʻoihana ʻōnaehana ke kūlana ma ka echelon mua.I Dekemaba 2023, ua hoʻoikaika hou ʻo BYD i kāna hōʻailona mālama ikehu a hoʻololi i ka inoa o Shenzhen Pingshan Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. i Shenzhen BYD Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

Ma ke ʻano he hōkū e piʻi aʻe ana i ke kahua o nā pākaukau mālama ikehu, ua kālele ʻo Haichen Energy Storage i ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu mai kona hoʻokumu ʻia ʻana i ka makahiki 2019 a ua hōʻike i ka manawa hoʻomohala ikaika.Ua helu ʻia ma waena o nā ʻelima mau ʻekeki mālama ikehu i loko o ʻehā makahiki wale nō.Ma 2023, ua hoʻomaka ʻo Haichen Energy Storage i ke kaʻina IPO.

Eia kekahi, ke hoʻokō nei ʻo Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) i kahi hoʻolālā mālama mālama ikehu.“hoʻolālā e hoʻokō i ka ulu pūhui ʻoi aku ma mua o 50% i nā makahiki ʻekolu a ʻelima e hiki mai ana, ʻoi aku ma mua o 30 biliona kālā, a lilo i mea hoʻolako makemake i ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu.”I ka makahiki 2022, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana mālama ikehu o ka ʻoihana e helu no 54% o ka loaʻa kālā.

I kēia lā, i loko o kahi ʻano hoʻokūkū paʻakikī, ʻo nā mea e like me ka mana o ka brand, ke kālā, ka maikaʻi o ka huahana, ka nui, ke kumu kūʻai, a me nā ala e pili ana i ka kūleʻa a i ʻole ka hāʻule ʻole o nā ʻoihana pākaukau mālama ikehu.I ka makahiki 2023, ua hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ka hana o nā ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, a ua pilikia ko lākou loaʻa kālā.

ʻO ka hana o nā hui pākaukau i hōʻike ʻia e CATL, BYD a me EV Lithium Energy i mālama ʻia i ka ulu.No ka laʻana, i ka makahiki 2023, loaʻa ʻo Ningde Times i ka loaʻa kālā holoʻokoʻa o 400.91 biliona yuan, kahi hoʻonui makahiki-ma-makahiki o 22.01%, a ʻo ka loaʻa ʻana o ka waiwai i loaʻa i nā mea kuleana o nā hui i helu ʻia he 44.121 biliona yuan, he hoʻonui makahiki o ka makahiki. 43.58%.Ma waena o lākou, ʻo 59.9 biliona yuan ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻōnaehana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, he 33.17% ka makahiki o ka makahiki, e helu ana no 14.94% o ka loaʻa kālā.He 23.79% ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, he 6.78% ka nui o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki.

ʻO ka hoʻohālikelike, ʻo ka hana o nā hui e like me Ruipu Lanjun a me Penghui Energy ke hōʻike nei i kahi kiʻi ʻokoʻa.

Ma waena o lākou, wānana ʻo Ruipu Lanjun i ka nalowale o 1.8 billion a 2 billion yuan ma 2023;Ua wānana ʻo Penghui Energy ʻo ka loaʻa ʻana o ka waiwai i loaʻa i nā mea kuleana o nā hui i helu ʻia ma 2023 he 58 miliona a 85 miliona yuan, kahi hoʻemi o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki o 86.47% a 90.77%.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Penghui Energy: "Ma muli o ka hāʻule nui ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka lithium carbonate o luna, i hui pū ʻia me ka hoʻokūkū mākeke, ua hāʻule nui ke kumukūʻai kūʻai aku o nā huahana pākahi lithium o ka hui, i hoʻopili ʻia ma luna o nā kumu destocking o nā ʻoihana o lalo. e pili ana i ka loaʻa a me ka loaʻa kālā;Ua hoʻemi ʻia nā kumu kūʻai o nā huahana ʻO kēia ka hopena i ka nui o nā hāʻawi hoʻemi waiwai i hana ʻia ma ka hopena o ka manawa, no laila e pili ana i ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana.

Ua haʻi ʻo Long Zhiqiang i nā mea hoʻolaha: "Ke hana nui nei ʻo CATL i nā mākeke kūloko a me nā ʻāina ʻē.ʻAʻole kūlike kona ʻano, brand, ʻenehana a me ka unahi i ka ʻoihana.Loaʻa i kāna mau huahana nā mana premium, 0.08-0.1 yuan/Wh ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o nā mea o kāna mau hoa.Eia kekahi, ua hoʻonui ka ʻoihana i kāna mau waiwai i luna a kau inoa i ka hui pū ʻana me nā mea kūʻai aku kūloko a me nā ʻāina ʻē, kahi e paʻakikī ai kona kūlana mākeke e haʻalulu.ʻO ka ʻokoʻa, pono e hoʻomaikaʻi hou ʻia ka ikaika piha o ka lua a me ke kolu o nā ʻoihana mālama uila.Aia kahi āpau nui ma ke ʻano o ka pālākiō wale nō, ʻo ia ka mea e hoʻemi ai i kāna mau kumukūʻai a ʻoi aku ka nāwaliwali o kona loaʻa kālā.

Ke ho'āʻo nei ka hoʻokūkū mākeke Brutal i ka hoʻokūkū piha o nā ʻoihana.Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Liu Jincheng, ka luna o Yiwei Lithium Energy, i kēia manawa: "ʻO ka hana ʻana i nā pākaukau mālama ikehu e pono ai ka lōʻihi a me nā koi kiʻekiʻe no ka maikaʻi ponoʻī.E hoʻomaopopo nā mea kūʻai i lalo i ka inoa a me ka hana mōʻaukala o nā hale hana pākaukau.Ua hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā hale hana pākaukau ma 2023. , 2024 e lilo i wai wai;e lilo nō hoʻi ke kūlana kālā o nā ʻoihana pākaukau i mea koʻikoʻi no nā mea kūʻai aku.ʻO nā ʻoihana e hoʻohana makapō i nā hoʻolālā kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa e paʻakikī ke lanakila i nā ʻoihana alakaʻi me nā pae hana kiʻekiʻe.ʻAʻole ʻo ke kumukūʻai nui ke kahua kaua nui, a ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻomau.”

Ua ʻike ka mea kākau moʻolelo i ke ʻano o ka mākeke o kēia manawa, ʻoiai ke hoʻomau nei ka loaʻa kālā ma lalo o ke kaomi, ʻokoʻa nā manaʻo o nā ʻoihana mālama ikehu no nā pahuhopu ʻoihana.

Ua hōʻike ʻo Liu Jincheng ʻo ka pahuhopu ʻoihana ʻo Yiwei Lithium Energy ma 2024 ʻo ia ka mahiʻai ikaika a hoʻihoʻi i nā ʻāpana i nā hale kūʻai, me ka manaʻo e hiki i kēlā me kēia hale hana i kūkulu ʻia ke loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā.Ma waena o lākou, ma ke ʻano o nā pākaukau mālama ikehu, e hoʻoikaika mākou e hoʻomaikaʻi hou i ka pae o ka lawe ʻana i kēia makahiki a me ka makahiki e hiki mai ana, a e hoʻomaka ana mai kēia makahiki, e hoʻonui mālie mākou i ka lakene hāʻawi o Pack (battery pack) a me ka ʻōnaehana.

Ua haʻi mua ʻo Ruipu Lanjun i ka manaʻo e hiki i ka ʻoihana ke loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā a hoʻopuka i nā kahe kālā hana ma 2025. Ma waho aʻe o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i nā kumukūʻai huahana, e hoʻokō ka ʻoihana i kāna mau pahuhopu ma ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka pono hana, hoʻonui i kona hiki ke pane i nā fluctuations i nā kumukūʻai maka. hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā, a me ka hoʻokumu ʻana i nā ʻoihana waiwai.