Ua hoʻopau ʻo BP a me Statoil i nā ʻaelike e kūʻai aku i ka mana mai nā papahana makani nui o waho i ka mokuʻāina ʻo New York, kahi hōʻailona e hoʻomau ʻia nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe i ka ʻoihana.Akā ʻaʻole ia he pōʻino a me ka pōʻino.Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ka lewa i ka Middle East, kahi mea hoʻolako nui o ka aila a me ke kinoea kūlohelohe i ka honua, e mau ana ka ʻino.Eia ka nānā pono ʻana i ʻelima mau ʻano e puka mai ana i ka ʻoihana ikehu i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana.
1. Pono ke kumukū'ai aila e kūpa'a me ka li'ili'i
Ua piʻi a hoʻomaka ka mākeke aila i ka makahiki 2024. Ua loaʻa ka ʻaila Brent i $78.25 i ka barela, e lele ana ma mua o $2.Hōʻike ka pōʻino ma Iran i ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa mau ʻana ma ka Middle East.Ke hoʻomau nei ka kānalua geopolitical - ʻoi aku ka nui o ka piʻi ʻana o ka hakakā ma waena o ka ʻIseraʻela a me Hamas - ʻo ia ka mea e hoʻomau ʻia ka volatility i nā kumukūʻai aila, akā manaʻo ka hapa nui o nā mea loiloi e kaupalena ʻia nā kumu kūʻai.

Ma luna aʻe o ka nele o ka ʻikepili waiwai honua.ʻAʻole i manaʻo ʻia ka ikaika o ka ʻaila ʻAmelika, e kōkua ana i ka mālama ʻana i nā kumukūʻai.I kēia manawa, ʻo ka hakakā ʻana i loko o OPEC +, e like me ka haʻalele ʻana o Angola mai ka hui i ka mahina i hala aku nei, ua hāpai i nā nīnau e pili ana i kona hiki ke mālama i nā kumukūʻai aila ma o nā ʻoki hana.
Hoʻolālā ka US Energy Information Administration i nā kumukūʻai aila i ka awelika ma kahi o $83 no ka barela i 2024.
2. Nui aʻe ka lumi no nā hana M&A
Ua ukali ʻia kahi pūʻulu o nā ʻaila aila a me nā kinoea nui ma 2023: Exxon Mobil a me Pioneer Natural Resources no $60 biliona, Chevron a me Hess no $53 biliona, ʻo Occidental Petroleum a me Krone-Rock ka huina o $12 biliona.
ʻO ka hoʻemi ʻana i ka hoʻokūkū no nā kumuwaiwai - ʻoi aku hoʻi ma ka Permian Basin nui loa - ʻo ia ka mea e ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kuʻikahi i ka wā e nānā ana nā ʻoihana e laka i nā kumuwaiwai wili.Akā me ka nui o nā ʻoihana nui e hana nei, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka nui o ka hana ma 2024.
Ma waena o nā hui nui o ʻAmelika, ʻaʻole i komo ʻo ConocoPhillips i ka pāʻina.He nui nā lono e hiki ai iā Shell a me BP ke hoʻohui i kahi "industry-seismic" hui, akā ʻo Shell CEO hou ʻo Vail Savant ke koi nei ʻo ka loaʻa nui ʻana ʻaʻole ia he mea nui ma waena o kēia manawa a me 2025.
3. ʻOiai nā pilikia, e hoʻomau ʻia ke kūkulu ʻana i ka ikehu hou
ʻO nā kumukūʻai hōʻaiʻē kiʻekiʻe, nā kumukūʻai kumu kiʻekiʻe a me ka ʻae ʻana i nā pilikia e paʻi i ka ʻoihana ikehu hou i 2024, akā e hoʻomau ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana o ka papahana i nā moʻolelo.
Wahi a ka International Energy Agency's June 2023 wanana, ʻoi aku ma mua o 460 GW o nā papahana ikehu hou e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻokomo ʻia ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa i 2024, kahi moʻolelo kiʻekiʻe.Ua wānana ka US Energy Information Administration e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka makani a me ka mana o ka lā ma mua o ka hana mana lanahu no ka manawa mua ma 2024.
ʻO nā papahana o ka lā e hoʻoikaika i ka ulu honua, me ka mana o ka makahiki i manaʻo ʻia e ulu ʻia e 7%, ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka mana hou mai uka a me waho o ka makani ma mua o 2023. Wahi a ka International Energy Agency, e kau ʻia ka hapa nui o nā papahana ikehu hou. ma Kina, a ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo Kina e helu no 55% o ka nui o ka honua i hoʻokomo ʻia i nā papahana ikehu hou i 2024.
Manaʻo ʻia ʻo 2024 ka "makahiki hana a hoʻomaha" no ka ikehu hydrogen maʻemaʻe.Ma ka liʻiliʻi he ʻeiwa mau ʻāina i hoʻolaha i nā papahana kōkua e hoʻoikaika i ka hana ʻana o ka wahie e puka mai ana, e like me ka S&P Global Commodities, akā ʻo nā hōʻailona o ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai a me nā koi nāwaliwali i waiho ʻole i ka ʻoihana.
4. E wikiwiki ana ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o ka ʻoihana US
Mai ka hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻia ʻana i ka makahiki 2022, ua koi ke Inflation Reduction Act i ka United States e hoʻopukapuka nui i ka hoʻolaha ʻana i nā hale ʻenehana maʻemaʻe hou.Akā ʻo 2024 ka manawa mua e loaʻa iā mākou ka ʻike pehea e hiki ai i nā ʻoihana ke komo i nā hōʻaiʻē ʻauhau waiwai i ʻōlelo ʻia i loko o ke kānāwai, a inā paha e hoʻomaka maoli ke kūkulu ʻana i kēlā mau mea kanu.
He mau manawa paʻakikī kēia no ka hana ʻana o ʻAmelika.Kūlike ka boom hana me ka mākeke hana paʻa a me ke kumukūʻai kumu kiʻekiʻe.Hiki i kēia ke alakaʻi i ka lohi o ka hale hana a me nā hoʻolimalima kālā kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia.Inā hiki i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ke piʻi aʻe i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā hale hana ʻenehana maʻemaʻe i nā kumukūʻai hoʻokūkū e lilo ia i kumu nui i ka hoʻokō ʻana i ka hoʻolālā hoʻihoʻi ʻoihana.
Manaʻo ʻo Deloitte Consulting e hoʻomaka ana ka hana ʻana i nā mea hana makani makani 18 i hoʻolālā ʻia i ka makahiki 2024 ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka nui o ka launa pū ʻana ma waena o nā mokuʻāina ʻo East Coast a me ke aupuni federal e hāʻawi i ke kākoʻo no ke kūkulu ʻana i nā kaulahao hoʻolako makani.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Deloitte e ʻekolu ka nui o ka hana ʻana o ka module solar home i kēia makahiki a ke hele nei e hoʻokō i ka noi ma ka hopena o ka makahiki.Eia naʻe, ua lohi ka hana ʻana ma ka pae kiʻekiʻe o ke kaulahao lako.ʻO nā mea kanu hana mua o ʻAmelika no nā cell solar, solar wafers a me solar ingots e manaʻo ʻia e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele ma hope o kēia makahiki.
5. E hoʻoikaika ʻo ʻAmelika i kona noho aliʻi ʻana ma ke kahua LNG
Wahi a nā koho mua a nā mea loiloi, e ʻoi aku ka United States ma mua o Qatar a me Australia e lilo i mea hana LNG nui loa ma ka honua ma 2023. Hōʻike ka ʻikepili Bloomberg ua lawe aku ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma mua o 91 miliona tons LNG i loko o ka makahiki.
I ka makahiki 2024, e hoʻoikaika ʻo ʻAmelika i kona mana ma luna o ka mākeke LNG.Inā maikaʻi nā mea a pau, e hoʻonui ʻia ka mana hana LNG o US i kēia manawa ma kahi o 11.5 billion cubic feet i kēlā me kēia lā e ʻelua mau papahana hou e hele mai ana ma ke kahawai ma 2024: hoʻokahi ma Texas a hoʻokahi ma Louisiana.Wahi a nā mea noiʻi ma Clear View Energy Partners, hiki i ʻekolu mau papahana i ka pae hoʻoholo hoʻoholo waiwai hope loa i ka makahiki 2023. Hiki ke ʻae ʻia ʻeono mau papahana hou aʻe i 2024, me ka mana hui o 6 billion cubic feet i kēlā me kēia lā.