Kwanan nan, kungiyar ba da shawara ta kasa da kasa SNE Research ta fitar da bayanan jigilar batirin makamashi na duniya a cikin 2023 da jerin jigilar batirin lithium na makamashin duniya wanda ke jan hankalin kasuwa.

Bayanan da suka dace sun nuna cewa jigilar batirin makamashin makamashi a duniya ya kai 185GWh a bara, karuwar shekara-shekara da kusan kashi 53%.Idan aka yi la'akari da jerin manyan batura goma da aka aika a duniya a shekarar 2023, kamfanonin kasar Sin sun mamaye kujeru takwas, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 90% na jigilar kayayyaki.Dangane da yanayin wuce gona da iri na lokaci-lokaci, ana watsa raguwar farashi a cikin kayan albarkatun ƙasa, manyan yaƙe-yaƙe na farashi suna ƙaruwa, kuma haɓakar kasuwar batirin makamashi ta ƙara ƙaruwa.Sai kawai CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), da Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 .SZ), Ruipu Lanjun (0666.HK), da Haichen Energy Storage, jimlar kasuwar kasuwar manyan kamfanoni biyar ya wuce 75% .

A cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, kasuwar batir ajiyar makamashi ta sami canji kwatsam.Abin da a da ake kallonsa a matsayin tabarbarewar darajar da ake fama da ita a yanzu ya zama jajayen teku na gasar farashi mai rahusa, inda kamfanoni ke son yin takara a kasuwannin duniya a farashi mai rahusa.Koyaya, saboda rashin daidaituwar ikon sarrafa farashi na kamfanoni daban-daban, ayyukan kamfanonin batir ɗin makamashi a cikin 2023 za a bambanta.Wasu kamfanoni sun sami ci gaba, yayin da wasu sun fada cikin raguwa ko ma asara.Ta fuskar masana'antar, 2024 za ta kasance muhimmiyar magudanar ruwa da kuma shekara mai mahimmanci don haɓaka rayuwar mafi dacewa da sake fasalin tsarin kasuwar batir ajiyar makamashi.

Long Zhiqiang, babban jami'in bincike na Xinchen Information, ya fada a wata hira da wani dan jarida daga kamfanin dillancin labarai na kasar Sin cewa, a halin yanzu kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi suna samun riba kadan ko ma asara.Saboda kamfanoni na matakin farko sun fi ƙarfin gasa kuma samfuransu suna da ƙima mai ƙima, kamfanoni na biyu da na uku sun fi shiga cikin fa'idodin samfuran, don haka aikin ribar su ya bambanta.

Matsin tsada

A cikin 2023, tare da haɓaka sabon ƙarfin shigar da kuzari da faɗuwar farashin kayan albarkatun ƙasa na lithium carbonate, kasuwar ajiyar makamashi ta duniya za ta haɓaka cikin sauri, ta haka ne ke haɓaka buƙatun batir ajiyar makamashi.Duk da haka, tare da wannan, ƙarfin samar da baturi na ajiyar makamashi ya shiga wani lokaci na rarar kuɗi saboda saurin fadada samarwa da sababbin 'yan wasa da tsofaffi.

Dangane da hasashen InfoLink Consulting, ƙarfin samar da ƙwayoyin batir na duniya zai kasance kusa da 3,400GWh a cikin 2024, wanda ƙwayoyin ajiyar makamashi ke da kashi 22%, wanda ya kai 750GWh.A lokaci guda, jigilar batir ɗin ajiyar makamashi zai haɓaka da 35% a cikin 2024, ya kai 266GWh.Ana iya ganin cewa buƙatu da samar da sel ɗin ajiyar makamashi ba su dace da gaske ba.

Long Zhiqiang ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa: “A halin yanzu, daukacin karfin samar da tantanin halitta na makamashi ya kai 500GWh, amma ainihin abin da masana’antar ke bukata a wannan shekarar shi ne da wuya a kai 300GWh.A wannan yanayin, ƙarfin samarwa da ya wuce 200GWh ba shi da aiki a zahiri.

Yawaita haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa na kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi shine sakamakon abubuwa da yawa.A cikin yanayin gaggawa zuwa tsaka tsaki na carbon, masana'antar ajiyar makamashi ta tashi cikin sauri tare da haɓaka sabuwar kasuwar samar da wutar lantarki.'Yan wasan da ke kan iyaka suna tururuwa, suna gaggawar yin aiki da rabawa, kuma duk suna son samun guntun kek.Har ila yau, wasu ƙananan hukumomi sun ɗauki masana'antar batirin lithium a matsayin wani abin da ya fi mayar da hankali ga inganta zuba jari, jawo kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi ta hanyar tallafi, manufofin fifiko, da dai sauransu don tallafawa aiwatar da ayyuka.Bugu da kari, tare da taimakon jari, kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi sun kara hanzarta fadada ayyukan bincike da kokarin ci gaba, fadada karfin samar da kayayyaki, da inganta aikin gina tashar.

Dangane da yanayin wuce gona da iri na lokaci-lokaci, jimillar farashin sarkar ajiyar masana'antar makamashi ya nuna koma baya tun daga shekarar 2023. Yayin da yakin da ake yi kan farashin lithium carbonate ya tsananta, farashin sel ajiyar makamashi kuma ya ragu daga kasa da 1. yuan/Wh a farkon 2023 zuwa kasa da 0.35 yuan/Wh.Digo yana da girma sosai har ana iya kiransa "yanke gwiwa".

Long Zhiqiang ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa: “A shekarar 2024, farashin lithium carbonate ya nuna wani sauyi da tashin gwauron zabi, amma gaba daya yanayin koma baya na farashin kwayoyin batir bai canza sosai ba.A halin yanzu, gabaɗayan farashin ƙwayoyin baturi ya ragu zuwa kusan yuan / Wh 0.35, wanda ke buƙatar zama Dangane da dalilai kamar ƙarar oda, yanayin aikace-aikacen, da cikakken ƙarfin kamfanonin batir, farashin kowane kamfani zai iya kaiwa matakin. da 0.4 yuan/Wh.

Bisa kididdigar da Kamfanin Sadarwar Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM) na Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network (SMM) ya yi, farashin ka'idar yanzu na 280Ah lithium iron phosphate makamashi tantanin halitta ya kusan 0.34 yuan/Wh.Babu shakka, masana'antun batir ajiyar makamashi sun riga sun shawagi a layin tsada.

“A halin yanzu, kasuwa ta cika kuma bukatar ba ta da karfi.Kamfanoni suna rage farashin da za su kwace kasuwa, ciki har da wasu kamfanoni suna share kaya a farashi mai rahusa, wanda ya kara dagula farashin.A karkashin wannan yanayi, kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi sun riga sun sami 'yan riba ko ma asarar kuɗi.Idan aka kwatanta da Kasuwannin layi na farko, ƙididdigan samfuran na kamfanoni na biyu da na uku sun fi dacewa."Long Zhiqiang ya ce.

Long Zhiqiang ya kuma ce: "Masana'antar ajiyar makamashi za ta hanzarta yin garambawul a shekarar 2024, kuma kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi za su gabatar da yanayin rayuwa daban-daban.Tun a shekarar da ta gabata, masana'antar ta ga dakatar da samar da kayayyaki har ma da kora daga aiki.Yawan aiki yana da ƙasa, ƙarfin samarwa ba shi da aiki, kuma samfuran Yana iya'Za a sayar da shi, don haka a zahiri za ta ɗauki matsi na aiki.”

Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance ya yi imanin cewa, an tsara kasan masana'antar ajiyar makamashi, amma har yanzu za a dauki wani lokaci don share karfin samar da kayayyaki da narkar da kayayyaki.Bayyanar dawo da ribar masana'antu ya dogara da karuwar buƙatu da saurin haɓakawa da daidaitawa a bangaren samarwa.InfoLink Consulting a baya ya annabta cewa matsalar wuce gona da iri na ƙwayoyin baturi za su ƙare a cikin kwata na farko na 2024. Haɗe tare da la'akari da farashin kayan, farashin sel ajiyar makamashi zai sami iyakancewar sarari ƙasa a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.

Banbancin riba

A halin yanzu, kamfanonin batirin lithium suna tafiya da ƙafafu biyu: baturan wuta da batura masu ajiyar makamashi.Kodayake ƙaddamar da ajiyar makamashi ya ɗan yi latti, kamfanoni sun sanya shi a matsayi mai mahimmanci.

Misali, CATL ita ce “gwamnati biyu” dangane da jigilar batura masu wuta da batir ajiyar makamashi.A baya ya gano wasu mahimman wurare guda uku: "Ma'ajiyar makamashi ta lantarki + samar da makamashi mai sabuntawa", "batura masu wuta da sabbin motocin makamashi" da "lantarki + hankali".Grand dabarun ci gaban alkibla.A cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, ma'aunin batir na ajiyar makamashi da kuma kudaden shiga na kamfanin ya ci gaba da bunkasa, kuma ya kara fadada hanyar hadewar tsarin ajiyar makamashi.BYD ya shiga filin ajiyar makamashi tun a shekarar 2008 kuma ya shiga kasuwannin ketare da wuri.A halin yanzu, batirin ajiyar makamashi na kamfanin da kasuwancin tsarin suna matsayi a matakin farko.A cikin Disamba 2023, BYD ya ƙara ƙarfafa alamar ajiyar makamashi kuma a hukumance ya canza sunan Shenzhen Pingshan Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. zuwa Shenzhen BYD Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

A matsayin tauraro mai tasowa a fagen batir ajiyar makamashi, Haichen Energy Storage ya mayar da hankali kan masana'antar ajiyar makamashi tun lokacin da aka kafa shi a cikin 2019 kuma ya nuna ci gaba mai ƙarfi.Ya kasance cikin manyan manyan batura biyar na ajiyar makamashi a cikin shekaru hudu kacal.A cikin 2023, Haichen Energy Storage ya fara aiwatar da IPO bisa hukuma.

Bugu da kari, Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) yana aiwatar da dabarun ajiyar makamashi, wanda"yana shirin samun ci gaban fili fiye da kashi 50 cikin 100 a cikin shekaru uku zuwa biyar masu zuwa, wanda ya zarce biliyan 30 a cikin kudaden shiga, kuma ya zama wanda aka fi so a cikin masana'antar ajiyar makamashi.”A cikin 2022, kudaden shiga na kasuwancin ajiyar makamashi na kamfanin zai kai kashi 54% na jimlar kudaden shiga.

A yau, a cikin yanayi mai tsananin gasa, abubuwa kamar tasirin alama, kuɗi, ingancin samfur, sikeli, farashi, da tashoshi suna da alaƙa da nasara ko gazawar kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi.A cikin 2023, ayyukan kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi ya bambanta, kuma ribar da suke samu na cikin mawuyacin hali.

Ayyukan kamfanonin batir da CATL, BYD da EV Lithium Energy ke wakilta duk sun sami ci gaba.Misali, a shekarar 2023, Ningde Times ta samu jimillar kudin shigar da ake samu wajen gudanar da aiki da ya kai yuan biliyan 400.91, wanda ya karu da kashi 22.01 cikin dari a duk shekara, kuma ribar da masu hannun jarin kamfanonin da aka jera suka danganta ta kai yuan biliyan 44.121, adadin da ya karu daga shekara zuwa shekara. 43.58%.Daga cikin su, kudaden shigar da kamfanin ke samu na tsarin batir makamashi ya kai yuan biliyan 59.9, karuwar da aka samu a duk shekara da kashi 33.17%, wanda ya kai kashi 14.94% na jimlar kudaden shiga.Jimillar ribar da aka samu na tsarin ajiyar batirin makamashin kamfanin ya kai kashi 23.79%, wanda ya karu da kashi 6.78 cikin dari a duk shekara.

Sabanin haka, ayyukan kamfanoni irin su Ruipu Lanjun da Penghui Energy suna gabatar da wani hoto daban.

Daga cikin su, Ruipu Lanjun ya yi hasashen asarar yuan biliyan 1.8 zuwa yuan biliyan 2 a shekarar 2023;Kamfanin Penghui Energy ya yi hasashen cewa ribar da ake samu ga masu hannun jarin kamfanonin da aka jera a shekarar 2023 za ta kai yuan miliyan 58 zuwa yuan miliyan 85, raguwar duk shekara da kashi 86.47% zuwa kashi 90.77%.

Penghui Energy ya ce: "Sakamakon faduwar farashin kayan lithium carbonate na sama, tare da gasar kasuwa, rukunin sayar da kayayyakin batirin lithium na kamfanin ya ragu sosai, wanda aka sanya shi kan abubuwan da ke lalata kamfanoni na kasa. don haka yana shafar kudaden shiga da riba;Haka kuma an samu raguwar farashin kayayyakin wannan ya haifar da yawan tanadin rage darajar kayayyaki da aka yi a ƙarshen lokacin, don haka ya shafi ribar kamfanin.”

Long Zhiqiang ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa: “CATL tana yin kokari sosai a kasuwannin cikin gida da na waje.Ingancin sa, alamar sa, fasaha da ma'auni ba su da misaltuwa a cikin masana'antar.Kayayyakin sa suna da ƙarfin ƙima, 0.08-0.1 yuan/Wh sama da na takwarorinsa.Bugu da kari, kamfanin ya fadada albarkatunsa na sama tare da sanya hannu kan hadin gwiwa tare da manyan kwastomomi na cikin gida da na kasashen waje, wanda ke sa matsayin kasuwarsa ke da wahalar girgiza.Sabanin haka, cikakken ƙarfin ƙarfin lantarki na biyu da na uku na kamfanonin batir ajiyar makamashi yana buƙatar ƙara haɓakawa.Akwai babban gibi ta fuskar ma'auni kadai, wanda kuma hakan ya sa farashinsa ya ragu, kuma ribarsa ta yi rauni."

Gasar ƙauyen kasuwa tana gwada cikakkiyar gasa na kamfanoni.Liu Jincheng, shugaban kamfanin Yiwei Lithium Energy, ya ce kwanan nan: "Yin batir ajiyar makamashi a zahiri yana buƙatar dogon lokaci da manyan buƙatu don ingancin kansa.Abokan ciniki na ƙasa za su fahimci suna da aikin tarihi na masana'antar batir.Masana'antun batir sun riga sun bambanta a cikin 2023. , 2024 zai zama ruwan sha;Matsayin kuɗi na masana'antar batir kuma zai zama muhimmin abin la'akari ga abokan ciniki.Kamfanonin da ke bin dabarun rahusa a makance zai yi wahala su kayar da manyan kamfanoni masu manyan matakan masana'antu.Farashin ƙarar ba shine babban filin yaƙi ba, kuma ba shi da dorewa.”

Mai ba da rahoto ya lura cewa a cikin yanayin kasuwa na yanzu, kodayake riba yana ci gaba da kasancewa cikin matsin lamba, kamfanonin ajiyar makamashi har yanzu suna da tsammanin daban-daban na burin kasuwanci.

Liu Jincheng ya bayyana cewa, burin kasuwanci na Yiwei Lithium Energy a shekarar 2024 shi ne noma sosai tare da mayar da barbashi zuwa shaguna, yana fatan kowace masana'anta da aka gina za ta iya samun riba.Daga cikin su, ta fuskar batir ajiyar makamashi, za mu yi ƙoƙari don ƙara haɓaka darajar isar da kayayyaki a wannan shekara da kuma shekara mai zuwa, kuma daga wannan shekara, za mu ƙara yawan isar da kayan aiki na Pack (batir) da tsarin.

Ruipu Lanjun a baya ya bayyana cewa ya yi imanin kamfanin zai iya samun riba da kuma samar da tsabar kudi na aiki a cikin 2025. Baya ga daidaita farashin kayayyaki, kamfanin zai cim ma burinsa ta hanyar inganta samar da kayan aiki, da haɓaka ikonsa na mayar da martani ga sauye-sauye a farashin albarkatun kasa. ƙara tallace-tallace kudaden shiga, da samar da tattalin arziki na sikelin.