Haɗe tare da halin da ake ciki a halin yanzu na ƙarfin aiki da raguwar buƙatu a cikin masana'antar hoto a cikin 2023, za a kafa manyan hanyoyin ci gaba guda uku masu zuwa a cikin 2024, suna shafar ci gaban dogon lokaci na masana'antar photovoltaic:

1) Fasaha tana jagorantar hanya kuma tana tafiya ta hanyar hawan keke.Ƙarshen zagayowar da suka gabata sun kasance tare da manyan canje-canje a cikin fasaha, kuma ci gaban fasaha na iya ƙarshe gane ka'idar farko na rage farashi da haɓaka haɓakawa a cikin masana'antar photovoltaic;

2) Lokaci ya yi da za a faɗaɗa ƙasashen waje.Dangane da yanayin raguwar buƙatun cikin gida, tabbas kamfanoni za su nemi hanyoyin kasuwa daban-daban don kawar da wuce gona da iri.Idan akwai dama don haɗaka, saye da sake fasalin, za su iya hanzarta fahimtar duniya;

3) Babban haɓaka sabon tsarin tallafi na makamashi da kayan aiki.Lalacewar gina tsarin wutar lantarki ya yi tasiri sosai ga haɓakar haɓakar ƙarfin da aka rarraba, wanda ke haifar da buƙatar ƙasa.Ana sa ran haɓakawa zai haɓaka cikin shekaru 24.A sa'i daya kuma, ana sa ran ajiyar makamashi, a matsayin muhimmin wurin tallafawa, zai ci gajiyar wannan.

1. Photovoltaic sarkar samar da sarkar samar da bukatar bincike

1.1 Bangaren manufofin yana jagorantar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar masana'antar hoto

Bangaren manufofin yana maida martani ga raguwar cyclical wanda ya haifar da saurin haɓaka ƙarfin samar da hotovoltaic.A gefe guda, za a ƙarfafa saurin IPOs da sake gyarawa a cikin matakai don sarrafa saurin fadada masana'antar hoto.Wasu sabbin 'yan wasa da kamfanoni waɗanda ke da ƙarancin kuɗi za a iyakance su kai tsaye.Ƙarfin hematopoietic na kamfanin ya fi mahimmanci.Ana sa ran maida hankali kan masana'antu zai ƙaru kuma za a ƙara inganta yanayin gasa.A gefe guda kuma, taron masana'antar masana'antu ya mayar da hankali kan haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar masana'antar hoto, jagora da tallafawa haɓaka fasahar fasaha na masana'antu da madaidaicin madaidaicin ikon samar da masana'antu na hotovoltaic.

Bugu da kari, masana'antar daukar hoto ta kasata ta dogara sosai kan kasuwar duniya.A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, ma'aunin fitar da kayayyaki ya fi girma fiye da sikelin da aka shigar a cikin gida.Koyaya, manufar harajin Amurka kan samfuran hotovoltaic da aka shigo da su ya canza akai-akai, kamar binciken rigakafin cutar da kuma aiwatar da UFLPA.Ƙaddamar da yarjejeniya kan haɗin gwiwar ci gaba ya aika da sigina mai kyau ga fitar da samfurin photovoltaic na ƙasata.

1.2 Supply: Kamfanin ya rage saurin haɓaka haɓakarsa kuma yana da isassun kuɗin kuɗi.

Kamfanin yana iyakance saurin haɓakarsa kuma a hankali yana haɓaka tsarin samar da kayan sa.Bisa kididdigar da aka samu daga Oriental Fortune, a cikin kashi na farko da na biyu na shekarar 2023, kamfanoni 60 na masana'antar daukar hoto sun fara yin kwaskwarima kan kudi tare da matsakaicin kwata na sama da yuan biliyan 100.Daga cikin su, kamfanoni 45 da aka jera sun samu kudin da ya kai yuan biliyan 115.8 ta hanyar kara fitar da kayayyaki, kuma kamfanoni 11 sun ba da lamuni mai iya canzawa don kara yuan biliyan 53.1.Yuan, sabbin hannun jari 3 da aka jera kuma sun tara yuan biliyan 4.659;bisa ga bayanai daga Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, a farkon rabin 2023, fadada sikelin samar da kayan siliki zai kai ton 760,000, ma'auni na wafers na silicon zai kai 442GW, kuma ma'auni na sel da sassan zasu kai 1,100GW.A cikin rabin farko na shekara, bayar da kuɗi da kuma samar da fadada kamfanonin photovoltaic sun kasance cikin sauri.

Koyaya, kamar yadda abubuwa kamar su sannu a hankali yawan kayan silicon, saurin matsawa na ribar da aka samu na sel TOPCon, raguwar cibiyar riba ta sarkar masana'antu, raguwar haɓakar buƙatu, da ƙara ƙarfin IPO da sake kashe kuɗi. kasuwar babban birnin kasar ta fara kwantar da hankali, kuma masana'antar photovoltaic tun lokacin da kashi na uku ya nuna alamar ci gaba da ingantawa a bangaren samar da kayayyaki.Misali, a cikin rubu'i na uku, kudaden da aka samu na masana'antar daukar wutar lantarki bai kai yuan biliyan 50 ba;kamar yadda na Q3, yin la'akari da ainihin ci gaba na ayyukan fadada masana'antu da aka sanar, duk hanyoyin haɗin yanar gizon masana'antu na photovoltaic sun ragu tun daga 2023. Ci gaban wasu ayyukan da ke kaiwa ga samarwa yana da sauri fiye da yadda ake tsammani.Ana sa ran cewa gaba ɗaya son masana'antar don faɗaɗa samarwa zai ragu sosai a rabin farkon 2024.

1.3 Buƙata: Ƙarfin shigar da Q4 na cikin gida ya ƙaru sosai, yayin da ƙimar fitarwa da sikelin duka biyu suka ƙi.

A cikin kashi uku na farko na shekarar 2023, sikelin sayar da kayayyakin cikin gida ya karu sosai duk shekara.Dangane da bayanan Gaisi Consulting, sikelin ƙaddamar da ƙirar ƙirar cikin gida a cikin rubu'i uku na farkon 2023 ya kasance 295.85GW, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 90%;sikelin da ya yi nasara a kan tsarin ya kasance 463.50GW, karuwar shekara-shekara na 219.3%, wanda ma'aunin sikelin na cikin gida a watan Satumba ya kasance 56.2GW, karuwa a wata-wata 50.7%, kuma ma'aunin nasara na module ya kasance 39.1 GW, raguwar wata-wata da kashi 35.8%.

Ana sa ran buƙatun ɓangaren zai ragu a cikin kwata na huɗu, tare da siyan kayan N sun kai fiye da rabi.Dangane da bayanan SMM, ƙirar ƙirar nau'in N-nau'in ya nuna haɓakar fashewa daga Satumba zuwa Oktoba 2023, tare da ma'aunin daidaitawa ya wuce 20GW.Daga cikin su, adadin siyan kayayyaki a watan Oktoba ya kasance 22.91GW, kuma adadin sayayyar nau'in nau'in N ya kasance kashi 53%.Saboda fa'idar farko-mover na fasahar TOPCon, ya lissafta fiye da 70% na cikakken kaso a cikin bayyani da kuma karkatar da sayan wasu kamfanoni na tsakiya da na jihohi, wanda ke nuni da cewa yanayin batura na nau'in N-masu maye gurbin P- Nau'in baturi a hankali yana ɗaukar tsari.Yayin da farashin sarkar masana'antu ke ci gaba da raguwa, ana sa ran buƙatun ƙirar za su yi ƙasa da yadda ake tsammani a cikin kwata na huɗu, tare da narkewar kaya shine fifiko na farko, amma nau'ikan nau'ikan N-nau'in har yanzu za su sami adadi mai yawa.

Ana sa ran sabon ƙarfin da aka shigar da shi don kiyaye girma a cikin kwata na huɗu.Daga Janairu zuwa Oktoba 2023, sabon shigar da ƙarfin hoto na ƙasata ya kasance 142.6GW, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 145%.Daga cikin su, sabon karfin da aka girka a watan Oktoba ya kasance 13.6GW, karuwa a kowace shekara da kashi 142%, da raguwar wata-wata da kashi 14%.Dalilin raguwa na iya zama tasirin bukukuwan.Daga mahangar tsarin ƙarfin da aka shigar, ikon da aka rarraba ya wuce 50% a cikin 2023, kuma ƙarfin shigar da keɓaɓɓu yana ƙaruwa cikin sauri kowace shekara.Daga cikin su, Q3 da aka rarraba ikon shigar shine 26.2GW, wanda ya kai 51.8%, kuma ƙarfin da aka saka a tsakiya shine 24.3GW, yana lissafin 48.2%.Yayin da farashin hanyoyin haɗin gwiwa daban-daban a cikin sarkar masana'antu ke ci gaba da raguwa kwanan nan, ana sa ran ikon da aka sanya a tsakiya zai ci gaba da haɓaka daga Nuwamba zuwa Disamba.

Fitar da samfuran Hotunan duka sun ƙi cikin ƙima da sikelin a cikin Oktoba.Daga Janairu zuwa Oktoba 2023, ƙimar ƙasara ta tara yawan fitarwa na samfuran hoto (sandunan silicon, wafers, sel, kayayyaki) ya kasance dalar Amurka biliyan 43.766, raguwar shekara-shekara na 2.6%.Daga cikin su, darajar fitar da kayayyaki a watan Oktoba ya kai dalar Amurka biliyan 3.094, raguwar duk shekara da kashi 24.7%.An samu raguwar wata-wata da kashi 19.2%, mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin wata guda a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata.Babban dalilin shi ne babban tushe a bara ya haifar da matsin lamba a wasu yankuna.

Dangane da bayanan InfoLink, ma'aunin fitar da kayayyaki na ƙasata daga Janairu zuwa Oktoba 2023 ya kasance 174.1 GW, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 30.6%.Daga cikin su, ma'auni na fitar da kayayyaki a watan Oktoba ya kai 16.5 GW, karuwa a kowace shekara da kashi 39.8%, da raguwar wata-wata da kashi 16.7%.A cikin watanni biyun da suka gabata na wannan shekara, saboda hutu na kasashen waje da matsin lamba, ana sa ran duka adadin fitar da kayayyaki da ma'aunin zai ragu.

Yawan adadin kayan da ake ja a farkon rabin shekara na iya haifar da raguwar buƙatu a kasuwar Turai a cikin kwata na huɗu.Daga Janairu zuwa Oktoba 2023, manyan ƙasashe biyar a cikin adadin kayan fitar da ƙasata sune Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, Indiya, da Saudi Arabia.Daga cikin su, yawan fitar da kayayyaki na kasashe irin su Saudiyya da Belgium ya karu sosai duk shekara.Kasuwar Turai a halin yanzu tana ɗaya daga cikin mahimman ƙasashe don fitar da samfuran hoto na ƙasata.Daga Janairu zuwa Oktoba, Turai ta shigo da jimillar 91.6GW na kayan aikin hoto, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 22.6%.Daga cikin su, kasar Sin ta fitar da 6.2GW na na'urorin daukar hoto na Turai a watan Oktoba, raguwar kashi 10 cikin dari a duk shekara.An samu raguwar kashi 18 cikin 100 ne saboda tarin kayayyakin da aka samu a farkon rabin farkon wannan shekarar.Ana sa ran cewa buƙatun gabaɗaya a Turai za su ragu sosai a kashi na huɗu na lokacin gargajiya.

A shekarar 2023, ana sa ran karuwar sabbin karfin da aka girka a duniya da kasar Sin za ta kai wani sabon matsayi, kuma ana sa ran karuwar karuwar za ta ragu sosai nan da shekaru 24-25.Daga watan Janairu zuwa Oktoba na wannan shekara, sabbin kayan aikin hoto na kasata sun kai 142.56GW, karuwar shekara-shekara na 144.78%.Daga cikin su, sabon shigar da ƙarfin hoto a watan Oktoba shine 13.62GW, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 141.49%.